Australian Open Women's Final Tips: Rybakina underdog value to take second Slam

Dan Weston
27 January 2023
3:00 min read

Elena Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka compete for the women's title

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Saturday morning at the Australian Open sees the women's singles final between Elena Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka take place, and returning to preview the match is Dan Weston...

Dan Weston previews the Women's Australian Open final
Just one set dropped between both finalists
Dan believes market has the wrong favourite

Sabalenka favourite to win first Slam title

We have a recent Slam winner (Rybakina, Wimbledon 2022) versus a first-time Slam finalist (Sabalenka) in tomorrow's Australian Open women's final, and it's actually the first-timer who is the market favourite. Sabalenka is 1.834/5 to celebrate with the trophy tomorrow morning, with Rybakina a slight underdog at [2.18].

In their six wins apiece so far in the event, Sabalenka is yet to drop a set and Rybakina has dropped just one, showing their dominance in getting to the final. With the duo's points won percentage around the 56-57% mark, and Sabalanka having an edge, you can see how the market has drawn the conclusion that she should be slight favourite.

Rybakina faced a tougher route to the final

However, it's worth making the point that Rybakina has faced four top 30 opponents to get to this stage, including world number one Iga Swiatek, and Sabalenka has faced just two, and no top 10 opposition. There's definitely context applicable to the data in the previous paragraph.

When looking at the hard court data over the last year for the two players, Rybakina (105% combined service/return points won) has a marginal 1% edge over Sabalenka, but Sabalenka has a higher win percentage - largely due to her tiebreak record in addition to break point underperformance from Rybakina.

Variance with influence on the players records?

The same dynamic exists when looking at more recent all-surface data as well. If we can chalk Rybakina's poor break point underperformance down to variance (and it often is), and Sabalenka's positive tiebreak record due to the same reason, then there's very little rationale to make Sabalenka the favourite here.

Throw in the greater Slam final experience for Rybakina in as well, and it's hard not to think that she represents underdog value at market prices - I actually make her a slight favourite for this, with the market odds pretty much the wrong way around in my view.

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