The two winners from Monday's Green Group matches meet today, as do the two losers, and Dan Weston believes the underdog is a big price to win the latter clash...
"At this underdog price, Ruud looks the pick to me on day four. I make him a marginal favourite."
Medvedev confirms qualification following victory over Zverev
Daniil Medvedev booked his place in Saturday's semi-finals with a dramatic final set tiebreak victory over Alexander Zverev, although it would be fair to suggest that the victory for the Russian was deserved, winning 4% more points than Zverev across the course of the match, plus earning the only break of serve in over two and a half hours.
We speculated yesterday that Matteo Berrettini would be a real injury doubt with the abdominal issue picked up in his opener against Zverev, and the Italian was unable to take to the court to face Hubert Hurkacz in the night match last night.
Jannik Sinner, the first alternate, maintained Italian interest in Turin and the 20-year-old delighted home support with a straight-set victory over Hurkacz, leaving the Red Group interestingly poised - Zverev and Sinner meet on Thursday with the winner joining Medvedev in qualifying from the group.
Green Group winners meet in opener
Novak Djokovic 1.232/9 vs Andrey Rublev 5.24/1: Another fascinating dynamic takes place today in the Green Group, with Novak Djokovic and Andrey Rublev meeting in the battle of the two winners on Monday in the opening match in the group.
The winner will almost certainly qualify for Saturday's semi-finals, with the losing player likely to need a victory in their final match to progress.
Unsurprisingly, the world number one, Djokovic, is a strong market favourite to get the win and while it looks a couple of ticks too short based on my model, I broadly agree with the market line.
This year on hard courts, the Serb has a solid advantage on both service and return points won, often against a slightly higher calibre of opposition, while it's arguable Rublev hasn't kicked on as much as many would have thought after a stunning 2020 season.
It might surprise some readers - it surprised me - that this is the first match between the duo, and while Rublev has won four of his last six matches against top 10 opposition, it would still be a surprise if he put Djokovic in elimination doubt this afternoon.
Ruud the pick in must-win game
Stefanos Tsitsipas 1.695/7 vs Casper Ruud 2.427/5: Tsitsipas was beaten in straight sets by Andrey Rublev on Monday, and he failed to create a single break point chance in that clash. We also have to consider that he retired with an elbow problem in Paris - his last event prior to this - and Ruud, who competed well against Novak Djokovic in his opener albeit in defeat, can take advantage.
While the Norwegian has a poor record against top 10 opposition, I think he can get the job done at an underdog price today.
Not only are there doubts over Tsitsipas, but the Greek man has had a difficult time indoors this year, and particularly has poor underlying data on return indoors which was again seen against Rublev earlier this week.
At this underdog price, Ruud looks the pick to me on day four. I make him a marginal favourite.
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