Who will win US presidential election 2024? Trump firms up as Biden drifts

  • Max Liu
  • 3:00 min read
Donald Trump addressing supporters
Trump has shortened while Biden has drifted

Donald Trump is the favourite to make a sensational return to the White House by winning the 2024 US presidential election while Joe Biden's odds are drifting says Max Liu...

Biden is 6.611/2 to win re-election in three years while Trump has shortened to 4.1

This week it is exactly one year since Joe Biden's victory in the 2020 US election but the bad news for the president is that the man he beat - Donald Trump - is the favourite to win in 2024.

Biden was accused of falling asleep at the COP26 conference in Glasgow on Monday and he has certainly been drifting on Betfair recently.

Trump, who has been backed at 21.020/1 to win in 2024, became favourite last month and since then his odds have shortened.

Biden is 6.611/2 to win re-election in three years while Trump has shortened to 4.1.

In the winning party betting the Republicans are 1.9110/11 with the Democrats 2.186/5.

Trump and Biden 1280.jpg

No president has ever lost an election then stood again, won and returned to the White House. But Trump cares little for historical precedent and the idea of becoming the first to make such a return may appeal to him.

He tried to overturn the 2020 result and made allegations of voter fraud in several states where he claimed he had been robbed of victory. Trump may feel he has unfinished business and, if the polls and odds indicate he could win, he could find another run difficult to resist.

Will Biden even run?

There are doubts about whether Biden will run in 2024. At 78, he is the oldest president to ever take office and he will be 81 at the next election.

Biden and Trump split screen.jpg

He is the narrow favourite to be the Democratic nominee at 3.412/5 while vice president Kamala Harris is 3.55/2. Harris is 8.615/2 to America's next president.

There were elections in some important states this week.

On Tuesday, Republican Glenn Youngkin pulled off a great win in the governor's race in Virginia, defeating Democrat Terry McAuliffe. In New Jersey, meanwhile, the Democrats only scraped by in the governor's race.

Both results will be of concern to Biden as the Democrats' thoughts turn to next November's midterm elections.

The Republicans are 1.261/4 to win a majority in congress and 1.618/13 to win in the Senate.

That indicates that Biden could spend the final two years of his first term in office up against a Republican controlled congress and senate.

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