US Politics

US Election 2024: Post-debate polls show Harris and Trump are tied

Donald Trump
Should Donald Trump be smiling after the latest polling data?

It's been another busy 24 hours in the 2024 US Election race so read Cai Wilshaw's recap of the main talking points you may have missed including insights on the 'Oprah Effect', latest polling and more...

  • New post-debate polls show Harris and Trump can't be separated

  • What effect will Harris' appearance with Oprah Winfrey have?

  • International Brotherhood of Teamsters decline to endorse either candidate

  • View Betfair Exchange politics markets as you have never seen before at Betfair Predicts


What you may have missed in the last 24 hours of the US Election

Polls Aplenty

New post-debate polling came through yesterday, showing Kamala Harris and Donald Trump at a tie nationally, polling at 47% each, according to the NYT / Siena College poll.

Harris is still a bit of an unknown - 25% of voters still said they needed to learn more about her, only a little less than just prior to the debate. As the Betfair Predicts graphic below shows, however, Harris remains the favourite to win the 2024 US Election.

There was some more positive news for the Democrats in the critical swing-state of Pennsylvania, where Harris has opened a four-point lead, achieving 50% to Trump's 46%.

According to the Betfair Exchange, in Pennsylvania the Democrats can be backed at [5/6 ] to win the state in the Presidential Election - a 55% chance of winning.

Pennsylvania State Presidential winner:

- Democrats - 5/61.84 - 55% chance of winning
- Republicans - 11/102.11 - 48% chance of winning


The Oprah Effect

On Thursday night, Harris appeared alongside Oprah Winfrey in the "Unite for America" rally that was live-streamed from their rally in Michigan.

Yet if Harris was hoping that the "Oprah Effect" would have an impact on the odds, she was left disappointed. In the past, key celebrity endorsements have had a significant impact on the polls and the betting odds.

Harris' odds remained steady at 10/11 this morning.

A few months ago, Biden's odds on the Betfair Exchange drifted from 7/18.00 (13% chance) to 19/120.00 (5% chance) when Obama signaled his lack of faith in his candidacy, which was widely reported in the media before Biden stood down.

Last month, Taylor Swift's endorsement of Harris boosted her chances of winning from 52% to 56% on the Betfair Exchange.

Harris and her campaign will be hoping that this appearance has a similar impact.


Team? What team?

One of America's biggest labour unions - who Kamala Harris expected to win an endorsement from - has declined to endorse either Presidential candidate.

This is the first time since 1996 that the International Brotherhood of Teamsters has not issued an endorsement. The Teamsters boasts 1.3m members across the US and Canada.

While this might be a blow to the Harris campaign, it is reported that over 1m Teamster union members have independently endorsed Harris since the announcement.

Teamsters regional councils in critical states Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada, said they would be endorsing Harris shortly after the Teamsters failed to endorse her campaign.

Harris will need to win those swing states if she is to win the election - here's how she is faring in the betting markets so far:

Betfair Exchange State-by-state odds:

Michigan:

- Democrats - 1/21.50 - 67% chance
- Republicans - 9/52.80 - 36% chance

Wisconsin:

- Democrats - 4/71.57 - 64% chance
- Republicans - 7/42.75 - 36% chance

Nevada:

- Democrats - 5/61.84 - 55% chance
- Republicans - 11/102.11 - 48% chance


Now read more US Election stories, tips and previews here.


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