US Politics

Democratic Nominee for US President Live Blog: Harris overtakes Biden to become favourite

President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris
Will it be Biden or Harris taking on Trump in November's US election?

Get the latest US election betting odds as Joe Biden fights back against calls to stand aside and let Kamala Harris or another candidate be the Democratic nominee to take on Donald Trump...

  • Democratic nominee for US President latest odds

  • Biden the favourite despite calls to stand aside

  • Harris most likely to replace him and face Trump in election


Frriday 11 July - 10:30 - Harris favourite to be nominee

Kamala Harris is the new favourite to be the Democratic Party nominee for president after calls for Joe Biden to stand aside reached fever pitch in response to his latest high-profile gaffe.

Biden was introducing Volodymyr Zelenskiy at the Nato summit when he mistakenly referred to the Ukrainian president as "President Putin".

Later, the 81-year-old referred to Harris as "Vice President Trump" during a press confrence.

Biden insists he is staying in the race for president, and says he has the mental fitness to beat Trump and serve four more years in the White House.

The president's odds tell a different story and he is out to 2.789/5 to be the Democratic nominee.

Biden is 11.521/2 in the election winner market, with Harris 5.85/1 and Trump 1.645/8.

Meanwhile, rumours swirled around Washington that Biden's advisers were trying to work out how they could persuade him to abandon his candidacy. Other party insiders were said to be carrying out their own polling to assess Harris's popularity with voters.

It has been another frenetic week for the Democrats as Biden's odds have lengthened and Harris' have shortened.

Just two days ago, Biden was odds-on to be the Democrats' candidate. While calls for him to leave the race intensified, however. he has only made more errors and his vice president now looks the more likely to take on Trump on 5 November.

Thursday 11 July - 11:00 - Harris and Biden near parity

The Betfair Exchange odds on Kamala Harris being the Democratic nominee for president shortened again as Joe Biden came under more pressure to stand aside in the presidential race.

Harris is 2.245/4 to be the nominee while Biden remains the favourite but only just at 2.727/4.

Earlier this week the vice president and president were 4.94/1 and 1.538/15 respectively but they have moved towards parity in the Exchange betting after further calls for Biden to give up on his bid for re-election.

The latest comes from the actor George Clooney, a previous ally of the president and influential fundraiser, who wrote an op-ed in the New York Times calling on the 81-year-old to let another Democrat run against Donald Trump.

In his article, Clooney referred to Biden's poor performance in the debate with Trump and wrote: "Our party leaders need to stop telling us that 51 million people didn't see what we just saw... This is about age. Nothing more... We are not going to win in November with this president."

As a popular and high-profile Democrat fundraiser, Clooney's article was damaging for Biden as he tries to reassure voters that he is the candidate to take on Trump.

Trump is 1.625/8 to win the election on 5 November. Biden has drifted to 8.615/2 in the election winner market, while Harris is now a shorter price at 7.26/1.


Wednesday 10 July - 14:00 - Harris backed by bettors

The odds on Kamala Harris becoming the Democratic nominee for US president shortened on Wednesday after the influential representative Nancy Pelosi said it was up to Joe Biden "to decide if he's going to run".

In response to the comments, Harris was backed in to 3.9 from 4.94/1 on the Betfair Exchange.

Biden is still the favourite at 1.635/8 but he has drifted from yesterday's 1.538/15.

He also drifted to 7.413/2 in the election winner market where Donald Trump is 1.564/7.

It was a less than ringing endorsement from Pelosi who served two terms as speaker of the House of Representatives and has been an ally of the president.

She said: "It's up to the president to decide if he is going to run. We're all encouraging him to make that decision. Because time is running short."

Seven House Democrats have so far called for Biden to stand aside in favour of another candidate, following his poor debate performance against Trump last month.


Tuesday 9 July - 12:00 - Biden regains favouritism

Joe Biden regained favouritism in the Democratic Nominee for US President market on the Betfair Exchange after an eventful couple of weeks following his disastrous first debate against Donald Trump.

The president dithered in the debate, and appeared to struggle with his memory, which raised fresh concerns about his ability to beat Trump in November's election.

Media commentators and Democratic politicians who had previously supported Biden called for him to stand aside.

Vice president Kamala Harris usurped Biden as the favourite to be the Democratic nominee.

Biden bounces back but Trump is election favourite

Following a frenetic round of campaigning across the July 4 holiday, Biden bounced back in the betting and is 1.538/15 on the Exchange to take on Trump.

Harris has drifted to 4.94/1 but looks the most likely candidate if Biden stumbles again and stands aside before the election.

But while the odds indicate that bettors think it will be Biden v Trump for the White House in the autumn, it is far from a certainty and the debate about Biden's suitability to be the candidate is not dying down.

The most worrying signal from the betting for Democrats is Biden's weakness in the election winner market.

He is 6.25/1 to win a second term as president while Trump is 1.618/13.

Harris most likely to replace Biden as Democratic nominee

The message from the market at the moment is that if it is not Biden, it will be Harris v Trump. The vice president has the campaign infrastructure and national reputation in place to run.

The California governor Gavin Newsom, who has been talked up as a potential replacement for Biden, is the next shortest in the betting at 16.5.

Former-First Lady Michelle Obama is 25.024/1 and the popular Michigan governor Gretchen Witmer is 38.037/1.

Harris is 10.09/1 to be next president but her price would shorten were she to receive the nomination.

With less than four months to go before the US presidential election, there is plenty of uncertainty about who Americans will be voting for come 5 November.

We will have further updates on the Democratic nomination for president up to and, if necessary, beyond the Democratic National Convention which runs 19-22 August.


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