US Politics

US Election 2024: Trump favourite as right-wing Milei wins in Argentina

  • Max Liu
  • 3:00 min read
US presidents Donald Trump and Joe Biden
The Betfair US politics markets point to a Trump v Biden rematch in 2024

Donald Trump is the favourite to win next year's US Presidential election and may take encouragement from a populist right-winger winning in Argentina. Meanwhile, Joe Biden is drifting on Betfair and in some polls...

  • Trump welcomes Milei win in Argentina

  • US voters concerned about Biden's age

  • President insists he is running in 2024

As a brash TV celebrity turned politician who espouses populist right-wing views and makes grand promises that he claims will restore his country to greatness, it is no wonder that Javier Milei, who has won Argentina's presidential election, is routinely compared to Donald Trump.

The former-US president welcomed Milei's win saying the 53-year-old would "Make Argentina Great Again".

Now Trump will aim to emulate Milie in little under a year by winning the next US presidential election.

The Betfair Exchange markets indicate that he has a good chance, with the former-president the 2.6413/8 favourite to make an extraordinary return to the White House.

His likely rival, president Joe Biden, has drifted to 3.711/4 after more polling at the weekend showed voters expressing concerns about his age. Biden turns 81 today.

Trump is 77 but those four years make all the difference, according to voters who are prepared to give Trump a second term.

Is Newsom running shadow campaign for president?

Biden will continue to face calls to stand aside by Democrats who believe a younger candidate could beat Trump.

Gavin Newsom is 6.611/2 on the Exchange to be the Democratic candidate. The energetic Democratic governor of California had been tipped as one to watch for 2028.

If Biden keeps polling poorly and calls for him to stand aside get louder, Newsom (pictured below with the president) could be the one to watch.

He has said that he is "rooting for our president" but some commentators have said that Newsom, 56, is already running a "shadow campaign" of his own - raising his profile and attracting supporters without declaring his candidacy.

Gavin Newsome and Joe Biden.jpg

Kamala Harris would be the heir apparent if Biden does not run but her approval rating is as poor as Biden's which is why the vice president is 26.025/1 to be the Democratic nominee.

Court cases could yet derail Trump

At weekend, NBC said Biden's approval rating had dropped to a low of 40% and put him behind Trump in a potential election showdown that would be a repeat of the 2020 contest which Biden won.

Trump is 1.241/4 to be the Republican nominee and Nikki Haley 9.28/1 is his nearest rival in the market. Ron DeSantis is 18.017/1.

There is a long way to go, however, and arguably more potential than usual for a leading candidate to see their bid upended.

Trump's faces 91 criminal charges, for election subversion, retention of classified information and hush-money payments, as well as civil suits.

The former-president remains bullish, and the Betfair Exchange market shows that bettors think he can emulate his kind spirit in Argentina and win. But a lot could and will happen between now and 5 November 2024 when Americans go to the polls.

Keep reading Betting.Betfair for updates on election odds in the US, UK and beyond.


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