US Election Odds and Bet of the Day: Try this treble among Biden's top targets

Back Biden to win Michigan, Wisconsin and North Carolina @ 11/10

We can't place conventional accas on the state betting markets because their respective fates are to a large extent contingent on one another. If Biden doesn't take number two on his target list, he's unlikely to win the sixth. If he takes number nine, we can probably assume he's won at least seven of the top eight.

Today's bet is fundamentally premised on that logic. If Biden loses either Michigan or Wisconsin, he probably won't win North Carolina either. So the bet almost feels like a single on the latter, at better odds than 1.784/5 on the exchange.

North Carolina seems to be edging to Biden

I've been holding off making a call on North Carolina until the last moment. This state swung late to Trump last time around and remains Republican-leaning overall. Nevertheless in the current climate, signals point towards Biden.

Fivethirtyeight have him 2.6% ahead in the polls and rated 67% likely to win. The first figure may even be deflated by the presence of lesser polls in the recent sample.

High-grade polls favour Democrats

The last A+ rated poll on Wednesday from Marist had Biden 6% ahead. 24 hours previously, NYT/Siena (A+) published a 3% lead. Last night CNN/SRSS (B/C) published 6%. Most encouragingly Marist and CNN had Biden above 50%. East Carolina University (B/C) also have him at 50%, 3% ahead.

The only reasonable news for Trump of late here is a tie with Lowell (A/B) but the same poll also confirmed a clear Democrat lead in the Senate race between Cal Cunningham and Thom Tillis. Incidentally, that is the likeliest state to determine who controls the Senate.

Much higher black turnout is another plus

The clinching factor has been the early voting, which has seen huge turnout among black and young voters. That has to help Biden and, for me, turns a toss-up into lean-Democrat.

As for the first two legs of the treble, I regard Michigan and Wisconsin as absolute banker material. Put it this way. If Biden loses either, I'm wrong, the polls are wrong, and Trump will probably get a second term.

Both of these Mid-West targets, ranked first and second on the Biden list, were recommended earlier in this daily series at odds of 1.412/5 and 1.444/9.

For the 18 previous 'bets of the day', check out this Twitter thread.

US ELECTION BET OF THE DAY THREAD

We tasked @paulmotty with selecting a bet every day up until Nov 3rd. This thread lists them all, along with link to the relevant market, to be updated daily.

? Betfair Exchange (@BetfairExchange) October 26, 2020

Follow Paul on Twitter and check out his website, Political Gambler.