Tuesday 3 November, 12.00pm
Whereas most focus is on states Trump is defending, Paul Krishnamurty says this Clinton-state may be harder for the Democrat to hold than some gains...
"A large percentage of non-college educated white voters in the state makes it relatively fertile territory for Trumpism."
The first three of my daily tips were all on Joe Biden, in keeping with my long-term prediction that the Democrat candidate will win a landslide. It would be remiss, however, to completely ignore the options on his opponent.
This state is perfect for hedging strategy
Indeed my overall betting plan will have to involve backing Trump in some form, as part of a hedging plan between the outright market and various states that will ultimately determine the result.
Allow me to briefly explain. Whereas Trump is merely a 7/42.76 chance to win the presidency, his odds are much bigger to win states urgently needed to reach the winning target of 270 electoral college votes. Principally Pennsylvania, along with Michigan and Wisconsin.
It is perfectly possible that Biden wins the presidency, but Trump wins one of these states. Thus my hedge plan could win on both sides. Nevada is perfect for the strategy, because even if Trump does win the six electoral college votes, he could very well lose overall due to those other three results.
Nevada is a better Trump target than Michigan
It is my firm belief that Trump has a better chance of winning this state won by Clinton than he does in Michigan. Perhaps also the other two.
She won Nevada by a mere 1.5% in 2016, making it three straight presidential elections for the Democrats here. As I remember, her campaign organisation was effective, helped by the influential Culinary Workers Union.
That cannot be said about any of the aforementioned trio, where a poor Democrat organisation failed to get young and, significantly, black voters out in sufficient numbers. In other words, whereas she underperformed in Michigan, she may have 'overperformed' here.
Polls back up the theory. Fivethirtyeight record Biden's lead at an average 6.4%, compared to 6.8% in Pennsylvania, 7.7% in Wisconsin and 7.8% in Michigan.
Demographic split should suit Trump
Events since also suggest this could be a friendlier state for Trump. Yes, Democrats won the Senate race in 2018 by 5%, powered by high turnout, but the 2% swing towards them in the House race was well below the national average.
Demographics also offer clues. A large percentage of non-college educated white voters in the state makes it relatively fertile territory for Trumpism. His base will turn out here and are reportedly door-knocking on an impressive scale.
In contrast, the Democrat vote here is reliant on a large Hispanic bloc, but polls show Biden underperforming Clinton with this segment.
To be clear, my tip for the state is Biden. However I'll place this cover before any on Michigan and don't expect the odds to get any bigger than 3/14.0.
Tuesday 3 November, 12.00pm