US Election Odds and Analysis: Can Trump win again despite indictments?

• Trump miles ahead in GOP primary

• Speedy trial could mean conviction before election

• Dark campaign will alienate independents

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For eight years on these pages, I've been analysing a political soap opera unlike anything seen before. One that fundamentally changed the dynamics of US politics, society and the established rules of the game. The next, possibly final, chapter involves a marathon election which no scriptwriter could have dreamt up.

Trump facing an avalance of charges

Central throughout the Trump saga has been his legal peril. We speculated whether the Mueller Inquiry, or New York authorities' long campaign to investigate his finances would yield criminal charges. He survived two impeachment trials.

Finally, it seems the law is catching up. This is his current schedule for early 2024, during the primaries. It could get worse if charged in Georgia and New York aren't finished either.

The Trials Of Donald Trump
• Oct. 2: New York civil fraud
• Jan. 15: NY Second E. Jean Carroll civil defamation
• Jan. 29: NY Federal class action lawsuit. Promoting a pyramid scheme.
• March 25: NY Manhattan criminal hush-money
• May 20: FL Federal classified documents https://t.co/uVOIq3FTXR

-- Vince Dumond. (@DumondVince) July 27, 2023

New York AG Letitia James' office says it's ready to proceed with a trial stemming from its $250 mil lawsuit claiming Trump, his children and the Trump Org. engaged in widespread fraud.

"The case is ready for trial," the office's senior enforcement counsel wrote in a filing.

-- Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) August 2, 2023

Having read the indictments, I believe Trump will be convicted on multiple counts, if not all. The cases appear rock-solid and Special Prosecutor Jack Smith wouldn't bring such controversial and divisive charges if not confident. Trump's best hope lies with the juries, rather than brilliant lawyers, which I doubt he has anyway.

The timing, however, is unknown. Trump will use every possible delaying tactic and has a reasonable case to do so because his defence team need time to prepare for multiple cases. If convicted, he's sure to appeal.

I very much doubt the classified documents case will be settled before the election. Perhaps the Manhattan case will, but those charges are much less significant.

The latest indictments regarding the Jan 6th insurrection are another matter. Many legal commentators believe it will be possible for Smith to get a speedy trial in this Washington D.C. court. Moreover, these are the charges that will likely hurt Trump most in the election. It is unclear whether being a convicted felon would affect his support, but this poll is horrific.

Among Republicans - "Would you vote for Donald Trump if he were convicted of a felony?"

No: 45%
Yes: 35%

Unsure: 20%

Ipsos/Reuters / August 2, 2023 / n=1005

-- Polling USA (@USA_Polling) August 3, 2023

If held today, Trump could win election

And yet, as justice finally appears on the horizon, any political impact feels minimal. He looks an absolute lock to win the Republican Nomination at odds of 1.412/5. I suspect those odds are only holding up due to fear of prison or withdrawal, than any rivals beating him in the primary. As for the presidency, national polls suggest right now, he'd win.

Biden & Trump are tied. This almost certainly means a Trump majority in the Electoral College. Exactly what is needed to cure Dem overconfidence--and there's a lot of it. Low D turnout and defections to other parties/independents could produce another 2016. https://t.co/f9TEbeH2WW

-- Larry Sabato (@LarrySabato) August 1, 2023

No Labels bid would help his cause

Larry Sabato nails the biggest worry for Democrats. Clinton lost due to differential turnout and expected votes defecting to minor candidates. Biden faced no such problems in 2020 but, in 2024, 'No Labels' could present a huge headache.

This is a new group claiming to be bipartisan, who are tipped to choose moderate Democrat Senator Joe Manchin as their candidate. He couldn't possibly win a state, but Manchin would take votes from Biden to ruinous effect.

There will be other attempts, overtly or covertly funded by Republicans or Russia, at spoiler candidates. It wouldn't surprise in the least were Robert F Kennedy Jr. were to run as an Independent in the general election, after complaining that he'd been stitched up Biden's DNC, and amplified across social media.

No doubt, Biden is beatable. His approval rating is a poor 41%. Nevertheless, the urgency of the situation may focus minds as it did in 2020 and these spoilers ultimately amount to nothing. In this scenario, 2024 is catastrophic for Republicans.

Majority of Americans oppose MAGA

When the insurrection happened, public opinion was overwhelmingly against Trump and his already grim approval ratings sunk to new lows. It was an unforgettable, definitive moment in US history. The coup-plotters and rioters were on the wrong side of history. As worrying as the situation can seem from afar, I don't believe it was an accurate reflection of America.

Reconsider Trump's previous elections. When upsetting the odds in 2016, he won the electoral college by the tiniest of margins, despite losing the popular vote by nearly 3M. Were it not for minor candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein splitting the anti-Trump vote, and a Russian interference campaign which we had little understanding of then, Clinton would probably have won.

Trump hasn't won an election since 2016

Afterwards, as Americans saw the chaotic, extreme, corrupt reality of Trump in power, every other election became a referendum on him. The 'Blue Wave' at the 2018 mid-terms. Even special elections. Joe Biden's 81M votes were less a personal endorsement than an extraordinarily united rejection of Trump. Albeit countered by an equally astonishing 75M turnout for an incumbent president.

The 2024 election will also be a referendum on Trump. In addition to what is now an undeniable threat to democracy itself. From the outset in 2016, he refused to commit to accepting the result. For reasons unknown, few took him seriously.

This time, the question will be asked and denied everyday. Trump rallies have become even darker, menacing, his vengeful message undiluted. Surrogates blatantly leave the implication of violence hanging, just as they did before Jan 6th.

Flashback to Marjorie Taylor Greene after she pleaded with supporters to come to DC on January 6th:

"You can't allow it to just transfer power 'peacefully' like Joe Biden wants and allow him to become our president."

We remember. pic.twitter.com/733lDxHcsA

-- Marcus Flowers (@Marcus4Georgia) August 1, 2023

Toxic campaigning can only help opponents

I simply cannot see a world in which this appeals to the independent voters who determine the election.

Thus, whatever issues voters may have about Democrats or doubts about Joe Biden's age, one of them will end up as the default alternative to Trump and dystopia. They will carry a comfortable majority, so long as getting their vote out. Again, having Trump and the end of democracy on the ballot can only help.

Recall the mid-terms. These were Republican-leaning elections, with differential turnout in their favour. Yet they fell well short of expectations in the House and lost the Senate again. Why? Mainly, because Trump-endorsed, extreme MAGA candidates lost in the key states or damaged the party brand.

GOP fail to learn mid-term lessons

In the immediate aftermath, a consensus emerged among everybody bar Trump die-hards that the results implied rejection of their preferred candidates and style of politics. GOP primary voters are not heeding the lesson, but it still applies.

As always, the presidential election will revolve around a small number of 'swing states' or 'toss-up states'. It will most probably boil down to Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona and perhaps Nevada. The electoral process in these states will gain prominence when the 'fake electors' scheme arises in the trial. Again, this cannot help Trump's cause.

Electoral map looks better for Democrats

In any case, that is a promising electoral college map for any Democrat. They have a definite advantage at state level in Pennsylvania. Wisconsin only voted Republican once since Reagan - for Trump in that freaky 2016 race where this state was specifically targeted with Russian interference. Democrats won the last four in Nevada by decisive margins. Repeat that hat-trick and Biden very likely wins a second term.

Betting-wise, I'm finding it very hard to see anything other than a Biden v Trump rematch. In which case, both are decent value at current odds. My 'tissue' for the general election after the 2024 conventions is 1.664/6 Biden, 2.56/4 Trump, compared to 2.8415/8 and 3.4549/20 today.

Our Winning Party market is tied at 2.0621/20, at which the Democrats must appeal. I am more open to the idea of Trump winning than I was in 2015 or 2019, but he still starts clear outsider against Biden. This is also a good alternative bet for those who fear Biden may withdraw.

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