UK Politics

Local Elections: Latest odds for Tory losses London Mayor and more up for grabs on Thursday

  • Max Liu
  • 3:00 min read
London Mayor Sadiq Khan and Labour leader Keir Starmer
Sadiq Khan is seeking a third term as London Mayor and Keir Starmer wants Labour gains nationwide

Will the Conservatives lose enough council seats to spark a mutiny against Rishi Sunak? Is Sadiq Khan cruising to a third term as London Mayor? Get the latest odds on Thursday UK local elections and key mayoral contests...

  • 500+ Tory losses odds-on in local elections

  • Teeside and West Mids mayoral contests too close to call

  • Khan heavy odds-on to win third term as London Mayor

The Conservative party is expected to suffer significant losses in the local elections on Thursday and that will pile pressure on Rishi Sunak.

Some commentators believe we could even see a leadership challenge to Sunak if the results are catastrophic for the Tories and indicate a wipe out at the next general election.

Below is a look at the state of markets on the Betfair Exchange for some of Thursday's key election markets.

Conservatives odds-on to lose 500+ seats

There are 2,600 council seats up for grabs and mayoral contests in key areas including the capital. So how bad is it likely to be for the Tories on Thursday?

They are 1.635/8 on the Betfair Exchange to lose 500 or more seats. That outcome would be an indictment of the government and would send shudders through the blue benches in the House of Commons.

Rishi Sunak speech.jpg

In his analysis of the local election markets, however, our political betting expert Paul Krishnamurty argues that those odds are too anti-Tory.

He thinks it is a "huge ask" for the Conservatives to lose 500 seats and thinks the losses will come in under that threshold, albeit on a bad night for the party.

Teeside and Wests Mids mayoral races are tight

Paul also believes that victories in the Teeside and West Midlands mayoral elections - where the Conservative candidates are 1.222/9 and 2.021/1 respectively - would give Sunak something positive to talk about in the aftermath of tomorrow's votes.

However, both races are tight and, in the West Midlands, the Labour candidate is 1.748/11 favourite to beat the incumbent Andy Street.

Were those odds to prove correct, losing the West Midland mayoralty would be a big blow to the Conservatives.

Khan 97% chance to be re-elected London Mayor

Sadiq Khan is 1.031/33 to win an historic third term as Mayor of London. He won the mayoralty in 2016 and was returned to City Hall three years ago in an election that was delayed by 12 months due to the pandemic.

His opponent, the Conservatives' Susan Hall, is 25.024/1 on the eve of the vote after a disastrous campaign that has been beset by allegations of dishonesty, far-right sympathies and incompetence.

Sadiq Khan in 2024.jpg

Khan is 1.684/6 to take between 40 and 45% of the vote on Thursday as the capital looks set to stay red for another four years at least.

Thursday's local elections will be the last before the general election which will take place later this year.

As it stands, the Conservatives are 1.548/15 to lose more than 200 seats at Westminster and a first Labour majority since 2005 is 1.141/7 on the Betfair Exchange.

There will also be a fascinating US presidential election in November and the odds indicate that it could be one of the closest ever.

The last US election broke records on Betfair and this year's looks set to be an enormous betting event again.

There will be many twists between now and election day so keep reading Betting.Betfair for the latest US and UK election 2024 betting news.

Now read Local Elections: Results might not be as disastrous for the Tories as doomsayers predict


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