Next General Election: Bettors back Conservatives as Labour odds drift

• Conservatives favourites to win next election on Betfair Exchange

• Labour's next election odds continue to drift

• It's Safer Gambling Week - explore all the tools available to Betfair customers here

In the past seven days the Conservatives have cemented their position as the favourites to win the next UK general election.

The chances of a successive Labour victory continued to drift and some bettors clearly think Donald Trump's victory in the recent US election provides a blueprint for a Tory comeback on this side of the Atlantic.

Betfair Exchange next election odds predict Conservative win

The Tories are 2.3811/8 on the Betfair Exchange to win the most seats the next time Britons go to the polls but the bigger story is arguably bettors' dwindling faith in Labour.

While there is still a long way go to the next election - it is scheduled for 2029 - these are concerning signs for a party that came to power with a landslide victory four months ago.

The Tories are keen to make sure that the reverberations from Labour chancellor Rachel Reeves' first budget continue to be felt.

This week's farmers' protest in Westminster was a prime example, as farmers showed their opposition to the government's inheritance tax plans. The Tories were quick to join the chorus of critics urging the government to rethink its plans.

Then again, while the farmers made plenty of noise and were amplified by the media, there will be voters who think rural landowners have had it good for a long time and do not sympathise with them.

There is a sense too that, with some aspects of their budget such as the rise in bus fares, Labour are getting the bad news out of the way early. They will aim to present a rosier economic outlook in, say, November 2028, prior to the next general election.

What's driving Tories' popularity in Betfair Exchange market?

Bettors may be backing the Conservatives because, after Donald Trump won the US election emphatically earlier this month, they believe the UK is ripe for a right-wing populist takeover at the next election.

The president-elect's win over Kamala Harris was a masterclass in how to exploit an opponent's incumbency. As the vice president, Harris was hobbled by the unpopularity of the Biden administration. That meant Trump could position himself as the change candidate, even though it was the third election in a row when he had been the Republican nominee.

Nigel Farage's Reform UK will hope Trump's win puts them in a good position and, with the party 5.59/2 in the next election market, there are obviously some who think they are worth backing. But Reform have only five MPs and the electoral system favour's the two main parties.

Still, Farage is 5.85/1 to be the UK's next prime minister.

At 3.55/2 to be the next PM Badenoch is the favourite but, as the leader of the opposition she should top the market, and that tentative price reflects the fact that she has only been in position for three weeks and it remains to be seen what she can achieve.

Trump's victory, however, has left Badenoch and her ideological bedfellows feeling fired up about their chances of winning power.

She will have little hesitation about taking the Conservatives further right in their bid to pick up votes from those left disaffected by Labour and will aim to win back others who defected to Reform last time.

The Betfair Exchange has correctly predicted the outcome of 23 of the last 25 major elections. The odds are a useful indicator of how parties and politicians are faring at any point in the electoral cycle. We will have more next week on the state of play.

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