UK Politics

General Election: Summer vote 7/1 as Tories tell Sunak to go early

  • Max Liu
  • 3:00 min read
UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak
Will Rishi Sunak call a summer general election?

An autumn general election has long been the favourite on Betfair but a summer vote shortened after the deputy PM urged Rishi Sunak to go to the country sooner than planned...

  • Summer election shortens to 8.07/1 on Betfair Exchange

  • Autumn still favourite but could Sunak go early?

  • Labour favs and Tories odds-on to lose 200+ seats

A summer general election - held in July, August or September - shortened to 8.07/1 on the Betfair Exchange after the deputy prime minister Oliver Dowden urged Rishi Sunak to go to the country sooner than expected.

An autumn election has been the favourite on Betfair for months and a vote in the period October to December is still 1.222/9. But the latest odds movement indicates that Betfair punters think it could happen earlier.

Tory tension to trigger early election?

Dowden was among senior Tories who were said to have voiced concerns with the prime minister about his election plans.

Sunak has insisted his "working assumption" will be that Brits head to the polls in the second half of the year, with party strategists pressing for October or November.

There is tension in the Tory party, however, and speculation that Sunak could struggle to keep his MPs on side until the autmn, especially if the Conservatives perform poorly at the local elections on 2 May.

Rishi Sunak speech.jpg

That could be a key date for Sunak as some Tories try to persuade him that, the longer he waits before calling the general election, the worse the results will be for their party.

Tories odds-on to lose 200 seats in Lab landslide

On the Betfair Exchange, Labour are 1.132/15 on the Exchange to win a majority at the next UK general election.

But just how bad could things get for the Conservatives? They are 1.491/2 to lose over 200 seats and suffer an historical rout at the ballot box.

Recently polls have put Labour up to 23 points clear of the Tories. There are those who argue that polls are unreliable but they are rarely so wrong that this kind of projection backfires.

Labour leader Keir Starmer is 1.21/5 to be the UK's next prime minister.

Betfair's Sam Rosbottom said: "Betfair Exchange punters have latched on quickly to this potential change in tack by the Tories.

"But despite uncertainty over the date for the big day, punters seem convinced of one thing - that Keir Starmer will soon be hanging his hat in No10."

Sunak is 1.654/6 to be replaced as Conservative leader in 2025 but that is largely dependent on the general election taking place in the autumn.

If it were held in summer then the Tories could have their next leader in place before the end of 2024 2.447/5.

Kemi Badenoch 4.3100/30 is the favourite to succeed Sunak as Tory leader.

As well as this year's UK general election, there will be a fascinating US presidential election in November and the odds indicate that it could be one of the closest ever.

The last US election broke records on Betfair and this year's looks set to be an enormous betting event again.

There will be many twists between now and election day so keep reading Betting.Betfair for the latest US and UK election 2024 betting news.

Now Read UK General Election Odds and Analysis: Will Reform overtake the Tories?


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