General Election: Labour majority 80% chance after by-election wins

Labour leader Keir Starmer
Starmer is heavy odds-on to be Britain's next prime minister

Keir Starmer said voters trust Labour to deliver change after they won two by-elections and the Betfair Exchange markets back that up as the party are odds-on to win a majority at Westminster...

  • Labour win two seats from Tories in by-elections

  • Labour majority at general election 80% chance

  • Tories could lose 200+ seats


  • A Labour majority at the next general election is an 80% chance on the Betfair Exchange after they won both of Thursday's by-elections in seats that were previously held by the Conservatives.

    The results piled pressure on the prime minister Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives are as short as 2.26/5 to lose more than 200 seats at the next general election which is 1.292/7 to take place this autumn.

    Rishi Sunak leaves Downing Street.jpg

    Labour achieved a swing of 28.5% to win in Wellingborough and 16.4% to take Kingswood. If repeated at the general election that would give Labour a big majority.

    The swing in Wellinborough was the second biggest from the Conservatives to Labour since the Second World War.

    By-elections point to big Labour majority

    Labour are 1.251/4 on the Betfair Exchange to win a majority and Keir Starmer is 1.211/5 to be the UK's next prime minister.

    Starmer said the results showed voters were prepared to put their faith in a "changed Labour Party".

    The "changed" part is key as the Labour leader has been at pains to distance himself from the party's time under Jeremy Corbyn, even though Starmer served in Corbyn's shadow cabinet right up until the 2019 general election defeat.

    Relief for Starmer after difficult week

    Prior to Thursday's results this had been a terrible week for Starmer whose preferred candidate for Rochdale by-election on 29 February was accused of making antisemitic remarks.

    Labour have stopped campaigning for Azhar Ali but he is still their candidate in Rochdale as it is too late to replace him. Labour are out to 2.47/5 to win the north west constituency and were overtaken on the Betfair Exchange by the Workers Party of Britain 1.738/11.

    Sunak odds-on to be leader at general election

    For Sunak, Thursday arguably marked a new low in his premiership as it was declared that the British economy is in recession in the morning as voters in Wellingborough and Kingswood were going to the polls.

    The prime minister will be under pressure from his own MPs, and there may be some who would like to replace him, but Sunak is 1.162/13 to still be Tory leader at the general election.


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