UK Politics

General Election Date: Punters back July in to 6/1 from 16/1

  • Max Liu
  • 3:00 min read
UK polling station
Is the UK heading for a summer general election?

Betfair Exchange punters backed a July election on Tuesday with the odds more than halving in 24 hours...

  • Odds on July election shorten by more than half

  • Bettors backing Sunak to go to country early

  • Autumn election still likely with Nov fav month


Betfair Exchange punters backed a July election after Rishi Sunak's Rwanda Bill finally made it onto the statute book last night.

The odds on a July general election dramatically dropped on the Betfair Exchange from 17.016/1 [6%] to 4.03/1 [25%] after the bill passed through Parliament before settling at 7.06/1 (14%) on Tuesday.

However, the PM's "landmark" policy has done little to dissuade punters that Britain is headed for a Labour government and shadow home secretary Yvette Cooper said her party would tear up the bill in power, branding it an "extortionately expensive gimmick".

Despite increasing faith in a July vote, punters are also continuing to back an autumn election, with November 2.35/4 (43.5%) the most likely month Brits will be heading to the polls.

Rishi Sunak leaves Downing Street.jpg

Sam Rosbottom, Betfair spokesperson, said: "November remains the favourite, but July has been heavily backed in the last 24 hours.

"Betfair Exchange punters appear to be banking on an emboldened PM viewing a summer election as his best bet for clinging to power. Time will tell, and that is the one thing the PM is running out of."


Tories odds-on to lose 200 seats

On the Betfair Exchange, Labour are 1.13 on the Exchange to win a majority at the next UK general election in a landslide victory.

The Conservatives are 1.49 to lose over 200 seats and suffer an historical rout at the ballot box.

Recently polls have put Labour up to 23 points clear of the Tories. There are those who argue that polls are unreliable but they are rarely so wrong that this kind of projection backfires.

Labour leader Keir Starmer is 1.2 to be the UK's next prime minister.

Sunak is 1.65 to be replaced as Conservative leader in 2025 but that is largely dependent on the general election taking place in the autumn.

If it were held in summer then the Tories could have their next leader in place before the end of 2024 2.44.

Kemi Badenoch 4.3 is the favourite to succeed Sunak as Tory leader.


As well as this year's UK general election, there will be a fascinating US presidential election in November and the odds indicate that it could be one of the closest ever.

The last US election broke records on Betfair and this year's looks set to be an enormous betting event again.

There will be many twists between now and election day so keep reading Betting.Betfair for the latest US and UK election 2024 betting news.


Now Read UK General Election Odds and Analysis: Will Reform overtake the Tories?


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