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Cotswold Chase gets Kev's Big Race Verdict treatment
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Tough to work out how strong the pace will be
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Brave move with Fay but Whacker is the pick
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Keep Betfair's safer gambling tools front of mind
Paul Nicholls Superboost
If you fancy Stay Away Fay to finsih in the top two in the Cotswold Chase at 13:50 today, then you can back it at the boosted price of 6/42.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook.
Racing returns to Cheltenham this Saturday for what is billed as Festival Trials Day. It is a particularly strong day of action and there is a lot to look forward to. Perhaps the most intriguing race of the lot is the Paddy Power Cotswold Chase (13:50).
The race brings together a fascinating mix of long-established contenders such as Ahoy Senor, Capodanno and Royale Pagaille with progressive second-season chasers like Datsalrightgino and The Real Whacker and a real potential joker in the pack in the shape of the novice Stay Away Fay. So, which way is the ball likely to drop?
Pace angle not an easy puzzle to solve
In terms of the likely run of the race, it isn't the easiest picture to paint. Ahoy Senor has always seemed best when ridden in an attacking manner from the front, but he hasn't always been asked or been able to do that with jumping errors often holding him back.
He has a change of rider for this start and it will be fascinating to see how they set out to ride him. If he is asked forward and gets in a good jumping rhythm, he seems a likely pace pusher.
The Real Whacker made all the running in all three of his starts over fences last season, but they weren't quite as forward with him on his seasonal return in the Paddy Power Gold Cup in the face of a contested pace picture and he ended up being ridden much more quietly in the King George V Chase at Kempton last time, for all that it might not have been intentional.
A return to the more positive tactics that suited him so well last season will surely be strongly considered.
Stay Away Fay lacks in chasing experience, but was a regular pace pusher over hurdles and has played that role in both of his starts over fences to date. Whether his connections ask him to be as forward in this deeper company will be an intriguing question to see answered.
Capodanno has shown his best form over fences when pushing the pace, but he has been ridden with patience in both his starts this season.
Overall, it is difficult to estimate just how strong the pace will be here and in the face of uncertainty, erring on the side of a below-average pace is usually prudent.
Brave move by Nicholls with Stay Away Fay
Stay Away Fay is an utterly fascinating contender. There aren't many trainers that would throw a horse with his profile into open company at this stage, but Paul Nicholls is braver than most when it comes to this sort of thing and his presence adds a deep layer of intrigue.
Personally, I think his form falls short of entitling him to be the sort of price he currently is (around 5/23.50).
There is obvious scope for improvement on just his third start over fences, but this represents a fair old jump in class. I'll applaud the boldness of the campaigning and sincerely wish them the best of luck, but I am looking elsewhere for the betting value in the race.
Festival winner Whacker has a Real chance
I am going to give another chance to The Real Whacker.
I made the case for him in this space prior to the King George V Chase at Kempton at what was a big price, but it went wrong from an early stage. Having been expected to be at least prominent, he ended up jumping off in last and never went with much verve, for all that he was only beaten 10 lengths at the line.
The post-race comments of his connections suggest that it wasn't at all part of the plan for him to be ridden so far back, but that he missed the start.
If they return to more positive tactics he might well be able to secure the lead. The return to this track will suit him and while his trainer hasn't been having a great time of it this season, The Real Whacker might be the one to pull him back up the table.
Now read Tony Calvin's Saturday ITV Racing tips here.
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