Saturday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin's four bets for Cheltenham and Doncaster up to 33/1

• 12/113.00 Ga Law can be highly competitive off 150

• 33/134.00 Guard Your Dreams looks overpriced

• Doncaster pair backed in 15:15 race

• Keep Betfair's safer gambling tools front of mind

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A very good day of racing in store on Saturday, so let's get the going out of the way and have done with it. It is good to soft, soft in places, at Cheltenham and good, good to soft in places, at Doncaster. There is minimal rain due at the former and maybe 4mm in total at Donny on Thursday and Friday.

We have eight races on the box and they don't even include the Triumph Hurdle match-up between Burdett Road and Sir Gino in the Cheltenham opener at 12:05 (and five others, none of which include the Finale winner Salver and the three Irish entries) and a 2m4f+ Grade 2 novices' hurdle at 16:10 featuring Gidleigh Park.

The absence of Jango Baie and Lookaway in the latter race makes the task of Harry Fry's unbeaten horse a lot more straightforward. He is 4/61.67 with the Sportsbook.

I wouldn't be massively surprised if the big two both got chinned in the juvenile race under their 5lb penalties, with Milan Tino and Excelero no forlorn hopes at 8/19.00 and 12/113.00 respectively, and probably a fair bit bigger still on the Exchange.

Cheltenham 13:15 - Back Ga Law

The ITV action at Cheltenham kicks off with the 100k 2m4f127yd handicap chase at 13:15, a race in which the betting has taken a little bit of a twist with top weight Fugitif going for the Clarence House and Victorrino coming here instead of Doncaster (though the Exchange market forecast the latter).

Excello is the lightly-raced improver who could blow the race apart, despite the handicapper hitting him with a 13lb rise for his Ascot win last time - connections could well be looking at Grade 1 and 2 options for the 5yo if he does win this well off 146 - but that may be getting ahead of ourselves a touch.

No prizes for originality but Betfair ambassador Paul Nicholls' Il Ridoto and Ga Law are the other two of note for me. The former won the race last year and is in great nick, though he has to race off a career-high mark of 148 here.

We know Ga Law can be highly competitive off 150, as the course winner ran to a higher level than that when fifth in the Ryanair and he was still in with every chance when falling at the last off this mark at Doncaster last season (he held an entry in that race this weekend but decided to come here).

I would probably lean towards Ga Law of the above trio at the current prices, with the Sportsbook's 12/113.00 a very fair offering. In fact, it was at least two points bigger than I was expecting, and probably four in truth. Take the 12s with the Sportsbook, or 13.012/1 or bigger on Exchange.

He ran okay until the petrol gauge went to zero in the Coral Gold Cup over 3m2f at Newbury last time and got dropped 2lb for it. Take the 12s win only, though the Sportsbook are offering four places for each-way punters.

Cheltenham 13:50 - No bet

All six stood their ground in the Cotswold Chase at 13:50, and you can obviously make a case for them all.

It may have just been uncertainty of whether he was going to turn up, but there was a fair difference of opinion about Capodanno in the ante-post market, with the Sportsbook top at 10s when he was as low as 5s elsewhere.

The temperature that ruled him out of the Thurles Grade 2 won by stablemate Allaho four days ago was obviously nothing too serious, and the obvious assumption is that the trainer had one eye on this race instead. For a cynical soul like me, anyway.

Capodanno is the only unpenalised horse in here, he ran well when third in the Savills Chase last time and he is a Grade 1 winning chaser with a fourth in a Browns Advisory at this course to his name, too. He'd be my port of call if you looking for a bet on the race.

I'll stop short of putting him up as he can't be a confident selection, and I am always mindful of tipping too many horses in this column anyway. Safer and responsible gambling should always be to the fore, as should selectivity. I haven't decided whether I am backing him yet anyway, to be honest.

In summary though, there is some 8s out but the Sportsbook's 7s is more than acceptable if you want a nibble.

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Paul Nicholls Superboost

If you fancy Stay Away Fay to finsih in the top two in the Cotswold Chase at 13:50 today, then you can back it at the boosted price of 6/42.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook.

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Cheltenham 14:25 - No bet

Only Funambule Sivola was taken out of the Clarence House Chase at 14:25 and all logic suggests Jonbon should have little trouble in justifying heavy odds-on favouritism, with the Sportsbook paying him full respect at 1/41.25.

That said, we all probably said the same last year when Energumene was thoroughly humped at 4/91.44 in this race, with Editeur Du Gite taking advantage.

Gary Moore's 10yo and Elixir De Nutz will go forward but it will be disappointing if Jonbon can't travel easily behind them and take it up between the last two and win easily.

Shocks happen though, as we all know.

Cheltenham 15:00 - Back Guard Your Dreams

Willie Mullins killed the ante-post betting on the Unibet Hurdle at 15:00 stone dead by entering Lossiemouth, Impaire Et Passe and Gala Marceau, and the owners of that trio found out on Thursday morning that the first-named was the chosen one.

Three others came out of the race on Thursday morning, so we are left with just five to go at.

The Sportsbook don't want anything to do with Lossiemouth and make her just 8/111.73 on her comeback run - they originally opened up at 4/61.67 on Thursday - and I couldn't go anywhere near her at that price. She is 10/111.91 elsewhere, and that doesn't appeal either.

Rubaud looks set to get the run of the race from the front but he has a job on with his 6lb penalty, while 5/23.50 chance Love Envoi, the form horse at these weights, didn't particularly impress with the way she travelled first time up. I guess it was Sandown heavy though, so perhaps I should give her a break.

It's the kind of set-up which looks tailormade for a shock though, so maybe First Street and Guard Your Dreams at 25s and 33s respectively warrant a second look.

In fact, the more I looked the more I had to back and tip Guard Your Dreams at 33/134.00 with the Sportsbook or 34.033/1 or bigger on the Exchange, for all he has obvious blow-out potential. Never be afraid to swing at a price, though.

I have no idea why he has been off the track since April 2022, when unseating at the last in the Aintree Hurdle - I couldn't find any stories or updates about him - but he won the last running of this race in 2021 and he was rated 147 at the time (now 140).

He is the only unpenalised horse in the race and he would be very dangerous on his 2021/22 form, and he won first time out in 2020 and 2021, including a 2m4f handicap here by two lengths off 140 here in October 2021.

He is still only eight and it is encouraging that he was put in the Champion Hurdle on January 9 at the first entry stage. Win or lose, that 33s looks far too big to me.

Cheltenham 15:35 - No bet

The three mares in the Cleeve Hurdle at 15:35 have presumably decided to wait for Doncaster on Sunday and that means there are only seven runners and two places for each way punters to go at.

I couldn't make head nor tail of this race at the five-day stage and little has changed since.

The Sportsbook's opening 13/27.50 about Champ was undoubtedly tempting though, as we know all about his Grade 1-winning back class - he was also second to Paisley Park in this race in 2022 - and he shaped okay on his return in the Long Walk, a race he won in 2021.

And it could well be that JP McManus is in the country and has instructed his trainers to get horses ready for this day, just as he did at the November meeting here, when he had three winners.

Doncaster 13:30 - No bet

Up at Donny, the Supreme Trial at 13:30 is not on ITV but it will give us another chance to see the Cheltenham second favourite Jeriko De Reponet.

We probably won't learn a great deal, as his stablemate Jango Baie has predictably not been set against him and he has just four rivals, none of whom are rated higher than 128.

Mind you, Jeriko De Reponet is a mere 132 horse as it stands, underlining what a changeable feast the Supreme Hurdle betting could be in the next six weeks or so.

He has done nothing to warrant his current Supreme quotes in a normal season but this is not a normal season (yet) and connections will hope he will finally have a race and learn on the job, just as Jonbon did when winning this contest in 2022.

Anyway, on to the ITV races.

Doncaster 14:05 - No bet

Mullins has taken out Lossiemouth and decided to go with Gala Marceau and Ashroe Diamond in the mares' hurdle at 14:05, a race also weakened by the absence of Luccia. The Sportsbook can't split the pair at 13/82.63, and I don't have too much of an issue with either quote.

I maybe wouldn't have them taking out such a chunk of the market myself, as Under Control has had another wind op since disappointing at Newbury in December - Henderson had a few under-performing at that meeting - and the 25s chance Stainsby Girl could keep them honest from the front.

However, I don't need to get involved in the race.

Doncaster 14:40 - No bet

Most of the big guns didn't confirm for the Albert Bartlett Trial at 14:40, which was disappointing. The first thing to note perhaps is that Finn Lambert, Joe Anderson and Patrick Wadge can't claim because it is a Grade 2.

The Sportsbook are two points under the general market price with Range at [7/1], and I can fully see why.

He finished a very good second to Gidleigh Park at Exeter in November , despite blundering at the final two flights, and he won as he was entitled to over an extended 2m3f at Chepstow last time. The second has been stuffed twice since, but the distant third did win a poor race next time.

It's a big step up in trip for him - his pedigree would give you some encouragement on that front, however - though perhaps more of a drawback is that the 7s is the bottom price out there, with 9s and 10s in a place available. I have to leave him alone, especially in a race full of unknowns. He would only have been a modest-stakes punt at 10s anyway, so selectivity is again key.

Doncaster 15:15 - Back Cap Du Nord

I was very surprised we didn't get a full field of 20 for the Great Yorkshire Chase at 15:15, but the weights have gone up 2lb with Ga Law heading to Cheltenham and that is good news for Twoshotsoftequila and Cap du Nord, who are now only 1lb out of the handicap.

It sticks in the craw somewhat to tip Cap Du Nord at the Sportsbook's 8/19.00 or on the Exchange at similar odds when he was double that price on Monday, and bigger still on the Exchange (21.020/1 when my ante-post column went live), but I think you have to have him onside now he has got into the race and is now only 1lb wrong, if only as a saver.

Regular readers will know the score with him now.

I put him up ante-post for Kempton a fortnight ago and he didn't show after apparently disappointing in a midweek gallop at home.

He is clearly sparkier now (the 100k pot may have helped his zest, he says in jest) and he is effectively 3lb lower mark than when a length second to Coopers Cross in this race last season, with the third 8 ½ lengths back. He then went on to win by seven lengths at Ascot off 127 at Ascot, and he races off 122 here.

He showed a little bit more at Newbury last time after a series of very moderate efforts and, simply put, I don't want to lose if he wins. And, crucially, there isn't a better fixed odds price out there.

But back him at 10.09/1 or bigger on the Exchange. I'll settle at Betfair SP, as I will with my main selection, which I will come to shortly. He currently trades at 10.519/2, and he may well drift a fair bit, you never know. However, you simply can't tell these days as the markets have never been as volatile, for a number of reasons.

The Sportsbook are paying five places but I'll go win-only on Cap Du Nord for two main reasons.

It is entirely possible that age has caught up with the 11yo - and let's be honest he has been beaten very soundly in five spins this term, so maybe I am being overly-cynical - and, perhaps more so, the form of the Christian Williams yard has to be a big concern. He had a 5/42.25 poke beaten out of sight earlier in the week and hasn't had a winner since November.

On to my main fancy.

Doncaster 15:15 - Back Annual Invictus

I had a real dilemma with Annual Invictus, as he is just [12/1] with the Sportsbook as this column goes live , when he is 20s in eight places on the Oddschecker grid.

However, I have cost myself big price winners in recent weeks in this very situation - notably Jay Jay Reilly, who was bottom price of 28s with the Sportsbook but won at a Betfair SP of 55 - so I am going to suggest you put in to back Annual Invictus at 21.020/1 or bigger on the exchange. He trades at 25.024/1 in a light market as this goes live.

If you can access any 20s anyway, then obviously do so, as I like his chance.

He a good ground horse who has dropped to a very enticing chase mark of 137 very quickly, and a hurdles run on his reappearance at Plumpton earlier in the month will have hopefully teed him up nicely.

He was eased a very generous 7lb for creditable efforts in the Kim Muir and the bet365 Gold Cup, both over trips that would have stretched his stamina, and I think he is very well handicapped off the current mark on the best of his chase efforts.

Forward-going tactics around here can often be a plus, and hopefully Freddie Gordon, who won on him at Newbury last season, is good value for his 5lb claim. I've no idea myself.

For what it is worth, I agree with the Sportsbook's 12s quote. I'd duck him, too.

Good luck. Bet sensibly. And well.

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Now Read Kevin Blake: Keep Betfair's safer gambling tools front of mind

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