ITV Races

Tony Calvin Antepost Tips: Cap Du Nord can win at Doncaster if fired up

  • Tony Calvin
  • Published on
  • Updated on
  • 4:00 min read
Betfair horse racing tipster Tony Calvin
Which runners is TC keeping his eye on at Doncaster and Cheltenham this Saturday?

Tony Calvin provides the antepost preview for Doncaster this Saturday and discusses the rescheduling of the Clarence House Chase...

  • TC previews Doncaster in first of two antepost columns

  • Does Cap Du Nord have fire in his belly?

  • Rescheduled Clarence House looks a poor call


It is doubtful that there has been any meaningful trade on the Great Yorkshire Chase so far, but that was the only early-closing race for this weekend and familiar foes Victorrino and Yeah Man were the Sportsbook's 7/18.00 joint favourites going into Monday morning.

Of course, most eyes will be on the Cheltenham Trials action this weekend - and the somewhat controversial re-rescheduling of the Clarence House Stakes from last weekend's abandoned Ascot meeting - but let's deal with the Donny contest, as that is only one of two Saturday races priced up as I file this.

Understandably so mind you, as the odds-compilers had to start from scratch on all the other weekend ITV contests.

Doncaster Saturday 15:15 - No antepost bet

There were 53 in the Doncaster race before Monday's confirmation stage and we are now down to 27. There is a maximum field of 20 allowed on the day.

Top weight and 10s chance Ga Law is also in a 2m4f handicap at Cheltenham on Saturday, as is Victorrino, but they are the only double-entered horses, so we could easily get a full field.

Cap Du Nord remains 3lb out of the handicap after Ga Law was kept in the race but he is my starting point in the 3m handicap nonetheless, even if he is certainly not assured of a run given the lack of double entries.

I put him up ante-post for Kempton a fortnight ago and he didn't show after apparently disappointing in a midweek gallop at home, so he owes me.

If he turns up on the day this time, he will be doing so off a 4lb lower mark than when a length second to Coopers Cross (also in here) in this race last season (though that would reduce to 1lb if the double-entered Ga Law runs), with the third 8 ½ lengths back. He then went on to win by seven lengths at Ascot off 127 at Ascot, and he is back down to 121 now.

His chance is glaringly obvious from a handicapping view, and it is just a matter of whether the 11yo still has enough fire in the belly to exploit it.

He showed a little bit more at Newbury last time after a series of very moderate efforts and I'd be inclined to think he has - certainly enough to be competitive anyway - though I can't recommend him ante-post after what happened with his Kempton no-show.

I strongly suspect they'll chance their arm in a 100k race (that Kempton handicap was worth 18k to the winner, and this is 56k) if he gets in, but he is one for Thursday morning when it becomes non-runner no-bet, anyway.

He is currently 16/117.00 with the Betfair Sportsbook, who are offering four places, and 21.020/1 on the Exchange.

The aforementioned Yeah Man was a no-show at the midday confirmation stage and his trainer Gavin Cromwell also took out another of his four entries, relying on Hascoeur Clermont , who was very disappointing behind Victorrino at Ascot last time. That may be a tip in itself for the 25s poke.

Victorrino is the Sportsbook's 6/17.00 favourite, but I couldn't touch him given that Cheltenham option, even if Donny's 3m would seem a far more suitable destination for him on Saturday and he remains on a fair mark, having been raised 4lb for his Ascot win last time.

The ground at Doncaster is currently good to soft (good in places) and the weather site I use has 9mm falling all week, so it will remain decent if that is roughly accurate.

I am not getting involved in this race at the moment as, if my assessment that we could get a maximum field of 20 holds true, then I think we will get similar (maybe better) prices and enhanced place terms after the overnight stage.

And without the worry of whether they will turn up and doing the ante-post cash in cold blood.

Cheltenham Saturday 14:25 - No bet

With other 2m chase options in the coming weeks (the DRF at the start of next month and the Betfair Game Spirit at Newbury on February 10), I was surprised the decision was made to reschedule the Clarence House after Willie Mullins said he wouldn't be bringing El Fabiolo over to Cheltenham this weekend.

With just five rivals, Jonbon is the 2/91.22 favourite with the Sportsbook in the early betting for the Grade 1 at 14:25 .

And, of the quintet ranged against him, Funambule Sivola and Elixir De Nutz finished first and third in the four-runner Game Spirit last season, so it could be a case of unnecessarily robbing Peter (in this case Newbury) to pay Paul (Cheltenham) in an avoidable debt.

And why couldn't Jonbon run at Newbury? That would have given him from February 10 to March 13 to freshen up, as they say. Sprinter Sacre and Altior did the double in the same timeframe.

And Fugitif also has the option of the 2m4f handicap chase on the card, while Funambule Sivola, who also won the Game Spirit in 2022, is in at Doncaster on Saturday, too.

The 6s poke Editeur Du Gite would have been a natural for the Newbury race - he was due to run in it in 2022 but was self-certed - and Nube Negra looks unlikely to get his preferred decent surface, so how competitive will the [25/1[ chance be?

Even allowing for the possibility that one or two may do the Cheltenham-Newbury double (as Funambule Sivola did last year), the rescheduling looks an increasingly poor call to me.

The going at Cheltenham is currently good to soft (soft in places) , with 3.6mm of rain forecast on Tuesday, 4.3mm on Thursday and 7mm throughout Saturday.

Back late tomorrow afternoon with a good look at the other weekend races.

Good luck.


Now Read Paul Nicholls' Ditcheat Diary: Multiple runners before a big Saturday at Cheltenham


Watch Weighed In...

PROFIT AND LOSS (Nov 1 onwards; 2023-24 NH season; as at 19 Jan)

STAKED: 45

RETURN: 73.1

P/L: +28.1

ANTE-POST: -9

PROFIT AND LOSS (April 16-Oct 31; 2023 Flat season)

STAKED: 202

RETURNS: 168.9

P AND L: -33.1

Exchange bets settled at Betfair SP for fairness

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Tony Calvin

Horse racing expert

Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.