Kevin Blake's Big Race Verdict: Back The Wallpark to handle big step up in class at Ascot

• Howden is an opportunity for new big player to emerge

• Murphy horse is worthy fav but too short for a bet

• Elliott runner can improve again despite big step up

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Strong Leader is the warm favourite to win today's Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot (14:25). The horse has finished inside the top three in all of his last three starts and today you can back him to finish in the top three again at the super-boosted price of 1/12.00 (from 2/51.40).

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The theme of the Howden Long Walk Hurdle (14:25) at Ascot on Saturday could well be "out with the old, in with the new." It will be not to see the likes of Paisley Park and Champ in the race, as they and others have been standing dishes for this contest but are not to be found in it this year. Indeed, with the oldest runner in this year's race being just eight-years-old, this very much is a case of it being an opportunity for a new big player to emerge in the division.

Mind, improvement will be needed. It might be a young field, but it is also a largely unproven one at this level. The highest-rated runner in the field is the 158-rated Strong Leader and other than the 156-rated Crambo, the rest are all low-150s at best. While it is far from guaranteed, the hope is that one of these can win this in style and announce themselves as a contender in the staying hurdle division.

So, where might that winner come from?

Tactical versatility could be key in Howden

In terms of pace, there are just bits and pieces of potential pace on paper and there is no guarantee that the pace will be even. It could well be steadier than that. As we always say though, everyone is looking at the same book of evidence when it comes to pace mapping, so there is always a possibility that one or more set of connections will see a lack of obvious pace on paper and decide to change up their own run style in a bid to seize a tactical advantage.

Paul Nicholls' Blueking D'Oroux ran very well when making the running over just shy of two-and-a-half miles in the Ascot Hurdle last time, but he shaped like he may not have got the trip on his only previous attempt at a staying trip in this race last year, so he might not be as forward in this contest.

Botox Has usually races prominently and can help push the pace. Hiddenvalley Lake usually races prominently. Strong Leader is tactically versatile and raced prominently when winning a Grade 2 over this trip last time. Beauport doesn't have a consistent run style, but is often prominent and/or helps to push the pace over both fences and hurdles when he is on a going day.

Strong Leader is an unappealing price

The one that sets the bar in terms of form in the book is the Olly Murphy-trained Strong Leader. He has proven to be relentlessly progressive in his career thus far, making the Grade 1 breakthrough when winning the Liverpool Hurdle at Aintree in April. Having been well backed, he didn't have to hit the same level of form to make a winning return in the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury, showcasing tactical versatility to sit second in the small field and win in straightforward style.

He is entitled to have tightened up for that run and that tactical versatility will be a key tool in what has the potential to be a messy race. He is difficult to throw a stone at, with the only quibble regarding his appeal as a bet being that all of the above is encapsulated in his price. Given he faces several unknown quantities at this level that are potential improvers, that price looks short enough to be left alone.

The Wallpark can take step up in his stride

Of those with the most potential to improve, the Gordon Elliott-trained The Wallpark is the most interesting one to my eye. The six-year-old has something of a quirky origin story having had five runs without success for Vincent Ward prior to switching to Gordon Elliott in early 2023. The improvement was immediate and, long story short, he has won seven of his 10 starts since then.

The Wallpark has shown particularly strong progression over hurdles since July, with him winning all four of his starts since then, headlined by a valuable handicap hurdle at the Galway Festival and a competitive handicap hurdle at Cheltenham in October. The latter victory was his first attempt at three miles and he looked to relish the test the race presented.

While a potential lack of pace isn't ideal for one that seems suited by being ridden with some patience, his rider will be aware of the pace situation and may well look to keep him that bit closer to the pace this time. He has just 6lb to find with Strong Leader on official ratings and with his arc of improvement having been so steep to this point, he might well be able to improve enough to take this big step up in class into his stride.

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