ITV Races

Tony Calvin Antepost Tips: Classy Chindit will be hard to beat at Donny

Betting.Betfair tipster Tony Calvin
Tony thinks Chindit is the leading contender in Saturday's Doncaster Mile

"Winner first time up in 2020 and 2021, if he is primed for action again here, then Chindit is clearly going to be hard to beat."

Chindit Doncaster Mile at 15:00 @ 2.6313/8

Tony Calvin is back with more on Saturday's card at Doncaster and, while our man is keeping his powder dry for now, he has strong views about the horses to watch as we move towards the weekend...

I previewed the Lincoln in Monday's article, so we may as well start this second ante-post piece of the week with a run-through of the other four races on Doncaster's ITV card on Saturday.

If you think you know the winner of the 19-strong Brocklesby at 13:15 then please keep it to yourself (if betting in a contest full of unraced 2yos is your bag, then seek urgent help).

Garrus looks well-placed for Cammidge challenge

The Cammidge Trophy at 13:50 is the first sensible punting medium of the day at Donny.

We have 11 entries for the 6f Listed race, and only Ejtilaab and Royal Crusade are double-entered (at Kempton on Saturday, so I am surprised the latter is 3/1 joint-favourite here given that option elsewhere), so those numbers could stand up, come the weekend.

It looks one of those classic, tight-knit conditions races which are devilishly hard to call but, given events over the winter months, it is interesting that Chasemore Farm have kept Brad The Brief in the yard - Hugo Palmer obviously operates out of there now - while Garrus has an excellent record when fresh, and is particularly interesting.

One, he will like the drying ground and, two, he has just missed a 5lb penalty for his Group 3 win at Deauville on August 29 by two days - penalties only kick for successes after August 31 - so Charlie Hills looks to have placed him very well.

And, three, Garrus is already the top-rated in the field on 110. Only just, mind you.

The problem is the Betfair Sportbook are fully alive to his chances and have him in as their 3/1 joint favourite alongside Royal Crusade.

It was no surprise to see the 5s and 4s in the marketplace disappear about Garrus, for whom Marco Ghiani has been booked, on Tuesday morning, coming into line with the Sportsbook.

Chindit is class act in Doncaster Mile

We obviously can't preview the Spring Mile because we don't know the make-up of the field - it is a consolation race for those who don't get into the Lincoln - so the only other race priced up on the card is the nine-runner Doncaster Mile at 15:00.

Given there is a maximum field of 22 for the race and Bell Rock, Brunch, Johan, Oh This Is Us and Safe Voyage could run elsewhere on Saturday, then this has the potential to cut up very badly, Turners Chase-stylee.

To my mind, there are only four horses you can consider backing at this stage then - Chindit, Boosala, Royal Champion and Tempus - and there is little doubt the former is the class act of this field, whatever turns up.

He wouldn't be my type of bet ante-post, but no way would I be laying him at 2s at this stage given the potential for the field to disintegrate on Thursday morning.

A winner of the Group 2 Champagne Stakes here at two, he went off 12/1 for the Guineas, in which he finished a good fifth, and he probably improved upon that a touch when occupying the same position behind Palace Pier in the Jacques Le Marois. Group 1 form, then.

Winner first time up in 2020 and 2021, if he is primed for action again here, then Chindit is clearly going to be hard to beat.

Good luck if you are laying 2s (the 5/2 in the village, as Big Mac would have said, went on Tuesday morning). I wouldn't, not even with someone's else's money. Having a final price sweep before this went live, I saw the best price was just 7/4 around noon on Tuesday.

ITV are also showing a brace of races from Kelso and Kempton, and we will stick to the Flat theme for now.

Kempton are struggling for numbers too it seems, as only 11 have signed up to the Magnolia Stakes, but only Bell Rock and Father Of Jazz could go elsewhere, so hopefully we get enough runners for 1,2,3 each-way betting on Saturday.

I can't see much of an edge in here at this stage, though Johnny Drama would certainly interest me most, as he is unbeaten in three starts here, he is improving and he hails from the in-form Andrew Balding stable.

But they also have Bell Rock in here (albeit in different ownership, and Joshua Bryan is currently jocked up on Johnny Drama) and once again the Sportsbook are awake and alive to his chances by going 5/1 about him. I would have been more than willing to put the doubts to one side to at 7/1 and 8/1, but 5s is the right price as I sit here.

I could very well revisit Bell Rock's claims after the declarations on Thursday.

There is no surprise to see Bandinelli put in as 15/8 favourite for the Queen's Prize at 14:40, as he has a very attractive profile. But I imagine you will just about get that price on the day if and when he is entered.

Justus at 10s each way is probably the pick of the prices at the moment after showing a lot more in a qualifier here last time, but I am not forcing a bet, as I think this race will stand up numbers-wise on Thursday.

Betfair Kempton AW.jpg

On that point, I should point out that Finniston Farm also has an entry at Doncaster on Sunday.

Over to Kelso then, where they have got just 10 runners for a 35k 3m1f170yd handicap hurdle at 13:35 - I see a pattern developing here - and the Sportsbook are, I think, the only firm to have priced it up as I tap away. Bravo.

Don Brocco and Son Of The Somme have alternative engagements this week - it is no surprise, therefore, to see they are the outsiders on the Sportsbook - and Sultans Pride edges favouritism over Famous Bridge, stepping up in trip, with 5/2 playing 3s there. I can't see anything in the current odds, though.

The Sportsbook gadgees have also gone solo in the industry in pricing up the 2m mares' novices' handicap hurdle at 15:15 - at the moment, anyway - and this attracted a very healthy five-day field of 17.

It's a tricky old race all right but I liked the way that Rae Des Champs knuckled down to win at Musselburgh last time and a 4lb rise for that seems manageable to me, especially given it was only her third hurdles start after winning her sole point.

The 10s is fair, but not quite tipping-fair, if you can get me, while I imagine we will get four places and more on the day should numbers allow. Aliomaana, Cancan, Somewhat Cloudy and Taragrace could be diverted elsewhere this week, though.

Good luck. Enjoy the sunshine. I am off to the dark of hell and the dentists' chair on Tuesday afternoon.

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Tony Calvin

Horse racing expert

Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.