Tony Calvin Antepost Tips: Mujtaba heads to Doncaster in fearsome form

Cheltenham done and dusted and the Flat returns with turf cards at Doncaster and the Curragh on Saturday - and the Dubai World Cup meeting too, if that floats your boat - so it makes sense to set the profit and loss to zero once again.

We have done okay in the last year or so as a whole (although I obviously had an enforced four-month break in that period, and it hasn't been great of late) but it re-focuses the mind, if little else - though there would be no harsher or vocal critic of myself than yours truly - and it will give the reader a better idea of what form you are in (not that I have time for that largely nonsense term).

Luck is vital

Luck plays a much larger role than "form" in determining short-term results anyway, as I am sure plenty can testify after Cheltenham where I am certain inches decided winning and losing weeks for many.

Saying that, I imagine you copped handsomely if you generally played towards the front end of the market.

Anyway, on to the Lincoln and the annual hunt for a horse a stone well-in, most notably illustrated by William Haggas' Addeybb beating Lord Glitters in this race in 2018.

The winner obliged off 99 and the runner-off was rated 107, and the former won the small matter of five Group 1s afterwards, while the second also copped in the highest grade subsequently.

There were 62 in the race prior to Monday's five-day declarations and we now have a more manageable (ish) 42, with the Big Three in the ante-post betting standing their ground.

Haggas' unbeaten Mujtaba, Modern News and Saleymm have dominated the long-term betting - on Monday morning the Betfair Sportsbook had them as 5/1 co-favourites - and we could all be fighting a losing battle trying to get all three beaten, given their rather attractive profiles.

Before we get stuck into that uphill task, the usual housekeeping as regards the weather and going. It is currently soft but the whole of the UK looks set for sunshine all week, so I think we are looking at nigh-on good going. And it will be fresh ground too, with Doncaster racing on the Sunday instead of Friday.

And we also have an Exchange market on the race.

Mujtaba leads formidable trio

Haggas' Mujtaba looks particularly fearsome, as he has the pedigree to go alongside the profile, as well as a master-placer guiding him up to Donny.

Unbeaten in three starts, he is 8lb higher than when winning a Redcar handicap in October but he probably deserved that given the manner of the win and the depth of the race, and his breeding, by Dubawi out of a Grade 1 winner in South Africa, certainly dictated that the bookmakers were always going to tread with caution there.

The same applies to Modern News, a half-brother to November's Breeders' Cup winner Modern Games and who teed up for this with a run over 7f at Meydan last month.

Saylemm is similar to that pair in that he is a very well-bred and unexposed 4yo, and he now just shades favouritism on the Sportsbook market at 4s ahead of the other pair.

They only thing that trio probably lack is a stand-out run on the clock, but that is probably due to lack of an opportunity.

Their collective market dominance is hard to knock - apparently Modern News is to be ridden by rising star 7lb claimer Harry Davies but I have never heard of him, such has been my commitment to the all-weather cause so far in 2022 - so that would appear to leave little room to manouevre for each-way angles against them.

Viable alternatives to big three

That said, delve deeper, and there are some viable alternatives, even if the two with the best form claims, at 8lb and 4lb well-in respectively, Roger Varian's duo Tinker Toy and La Tihaty, were taken out of the race on Monday.

And Valiant Prince, as short as 6/1 on Monday morning in a place and stablemate of Modern News, was another no-show.

The most interesting contender outside of the top of the market is undoubtedly Darkness, having his first start for David O'Meara after joining him from Jean-Claude Rouget in France.

I wouldn't claim to know anything about Darkness before looking into his form on France Galop but O'Meara has sourced some good horses form France. Most obviously, the aforementioned Lord Glitters but also Hortzadar, who won his first two for the yard and who finished a 66/1 third in this race last season.

The horse took his chance in Group 1 company at two, and competed in Group 3 and Listed company in his three starts last season, and on the face of it an opening mark of 95 would appear acceptable.

Quite whether this has been the long-term plan for him I don't know, or indeed whether he is set to run, but he has the same owners of Hortzadar (or a different variation of) - Hortzadar is also in here, by the way - and he has been gelded since he last ran, so I am not sure I would be laying 25s on the Sportsbook, or on the Exchange.

He may have had his issues since being purchased for 70,000 euros last July though and he may not want this drying ground, so I'd be inclined to see if he is entered up on Thursday. The 25s may not be there but extra places will be, and you will know you are definitely on a runner or your money back.

Recent Wolverhampton winner Notre Belle Bete is perhaps the other of note as regards a horse with plenty of upside but, with the front three in the market so strong, I can't see many potential shorteners in the betting here.

I will be doing a separate ante-post column on the other weekend ITV races, so I will be back.

I won't do a double-entered list on this race as obviously 20 of these are in the consolation Spring Mile and it may confuse but Safe Voyage, This Is Us, Brunch and Johan are also in the Listed Doncaster Mile on the card, so I wouldn't be backing them ante-post myself, and Father Of Jazz is also in at Kempton, so tread carefully there, too.

PROFIT AND LOSS (since April 14-March 21; now re-set at zero)

Staked: 348pts

Returns 531.1

P/L: + 183.1