Tony Calvin Antepost Tips: Back 12/1 Flegmatik to seize his chance at Ascot on Saturday

• Betfair Exchange Trophy is red hot handicap

• 12/113.00 Flegmatik has brilliant opportunity

• Play the long game with the Long Walk Hurdle

There are six races on ITV on Saturday and, surprisingly perhaps, three from Ascot have been traded on the Betfair Exchange for a while.

The going there is currently good to soft, good in places. The main weather site I use has 8mm of rain on Tuesday (a prediction pretty much backed up by others) and then dry until Saturday (around 3mm maybe).

So on the soft side of good to soft is a fair working assumption for Ascot.

Ascot Saturday 15:35 - No bet

The biggest pot on offer at the Berkshire track on Saturday is the 1m7f152yd 150k Betfair Exchange Trophy at 15:35, so I better start there.

We are down to 17 entries in a race that could have accommodated 21 on the day, but it doesn't make it much easier to solve. It's a red-hot handicap.

Right, double-entries housekeeping to start with, and that is done very quickly as none of the 17 have alternative engagements this week, as we stand.

I appreciate Boxing Day entries are only revealed on Wednesday, and maybe a bit later for Ireland, but I reckon we will get very few defectors for such a massive pot.

With that in mind, maybe each-way punters are better off waiting until the day-of-race decs and enhanced place terms. It has to be said, however, that Betfair, and most other firms, are playing very fair indeed by going a quarter 1,2,3,4 for ante-post punters for a race of 17 five-day entries.

This is the deepest 2m handicap hurdle I have seen this season though, and that includes the Greatwood Hurdle which Iberico Lord won so impressively at Cheltenham last month.

He is one of three-strong entries in the race for Nicky Henderson, and they also include Greatwood third Luccia (we also have the runner-up from that race, Lookaway, in here) and the hugely impressive Cheltenham winner Impose Toi, who is a 13/27.50 poke.

I have no doubt Iberico Lord is the one to beat in here off an 8lb higher mark and I have no issue at all with him heading the market at 7/24.50 , but there is an amazing depth to this race and the fact that his stable/ownermate Impose Toi is also in here has to concern you if are tempted by him ante-post.

The same obviously applies to potential Impose Toi backers.

Will Henderson, or perhaps more pertinently JP McManus, want to throw two potentially well treated and unexposed youngsters at the same handicap? I am not so sure. I'd say it is odds against that both run myself.

Against that reasoning, and that back-of-fag-packet pricing, they would be two mighty darts to throw at the 85k-to-the-winner pot.

However, everywhere you look in this field, there are high-level dangers. Recent Sandown winner, Gary Moore's Spirit D'Aunou, is 6lb well-in under his 4lb penalty and a very fair price at 8/19.00, and maybe last week's Cheltenham scorer Go Dante will go up by more than his similar burden when he is re-assessed tomorrow.

Basically, there are lurkers everywhere you look, including the 7/24.50 Greatwood favourite Onlyamatteroftime, who will be on a hat-trick of "ran outs" if taking his chance. He is currently 4lb out of the handicap, though.

On that theme, it will be interesting to see if Alan King runs top weight Sceau Royal to keep the same owners' Park Annonciade on a racing weight of just 10lb 3lb, as the latter won very well at Haydock and is yet another fast-improver in here.

He looks big at the Sportsbook's 25/126.00 but he is up 6lb into much, much deeper and classier waters.

Incidentally, Moore, responsible for Spirit D'Aunou, also has the 11/26.50 second favourite in here Hansard and 33s poke Teddy Blue.

What I am trying to say is that this is a ridiculously competitive handicap, and I am waiting to see what happens at 10am on Thursday before playing myself.

Ascot Saturday 14:25 - No bet

Crambo is the second lowest-rated horse in the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle at 14:25, just 1lb in front of Gowel Road, yet he is priced up at just 7/24.50 by the Sportsbook. And that price can't be bettered anywhere else.

I have to agree with the market giving him a far better chance than the ratings suggest though - we lost six from the race on Monday morning, by the way - as I would have liked the stewards to ask Connor Brace why he switched him to the inside at Haydock last time, instead of staying to the trouble-free outside.

I am not for one moment suggesting anything untoward (though the horse was very weak near the off) and jockeys make poor decisions in the heat of battle every day of the week - probably not as many of the rest of us, though - but punters deserve questions to be asked a lot more than they currently are by stewards.

As it was, Crambo predictably got anything but a clear run - it really was a mystifying move, even with Captain Hindsight factored in - and I reckon he must have gone very close to winning there.

Admittedly, that was a handicap and he was racing off just 139 (the fact that handicapper raised him 3lb for being beaten 2 ½ lengths tells you the story) but it is hard to escape the fact that this is a 6yo stayer going places.

He is a course winner, proven on ground ranging from good to soft to heavy (so the weather can do what it wants) and he is unexposed at the trip. I know it is counter-intuitive to be backing 142-rated horses to win a Grade 1, but this is England 2023 and this is a top-level race in name only.

I do think he will prove to be the one to beat but I can resist at 7/24.50. For now, at least. I think he will be that price after Thursday morning when the market will be non-runner no-bet if he is a no-show.

The Sportsbook want the highest-rated hurdler in here (though the 165-rated chaser Champ is officially the most talented in here), Dashel Drasher, onside at 5s, when he is 8s elsewhere in a couple of places.

If the Sportsbook were going 8s about the recent Newbury winner, who the market always seems to underestimate despite a consistently impressive body of work (albeit he is no winning machine, granted), I would have probably recommended him here.

But, as I always say, aunties and uncles and all that. More about him on Thursday afternoon/Friday morning perhaps.

Once again, it may be misleading with Boxing Day and the Christmas period imminent (I believe Boxing Day entries are out on Wednesday, as I said earlier) but none of the 10 in the Long Walk are currently double-entered.

Ascot Saturday 15:00 - Back Flegmatik

We have only 12 entries in the 100k 2m7f180yd handicap chase at 15:00, down from 30 prior to Monday's confirmation stage, and we once again have Gavin Cromwell to thank for bolstering the numbers as he has stuck Yeah Man and Hascouer Clermont in here, 9/25.50 and 13/27.50 respectively.

Of the entries, Bangers And Cash and Git Maker, are also in the Tommy Whittle at Haydock on Saturday, while Blackjack Magic, the 3/14.00 favourite, and Make Me A Believer are in the Welsh National on December 27.

There looks to have been a few quid around for Flegmatik on Monday and I can see why. He is a currently a very fair price at 12/113.00 with the Sportsbook.

He bumped into a horse who is excellent when fresh in Your Darling here last time and got dropped 1lb for it, which I think was very reasonable, as that leaves him only 2lb higher than when just touched off in the old Racing Post Trophy back in February.

The only worry I have for him is that he has been saved for Kempton over Christmas for the past two seasons, the 3m handicap at Kempton on December 27, so I just wonder whether they will come here.

But surely connections won't pass up this opportunity - it is a weak handicap as 100k pots go, and Dan Skelton, who only has Flegmatik in here, is not the sort to let these opportunities slide by - and I am willing to take a small-stakes, win-only punt on him at 12/113.00 with the Sportsbook.

It is only a small-stakes bet, with that Kempton doubt in the back of my mind.

He is also 13.012/1 on the Exchange. He is best on a decent surface, so the current forecast is okay for him.

The going at Haydock is soft, with a touch of good to soft on the hurdles track, and the BHA site says "showers daily" from here on in.

The reality could be something rather different and the aforementioned, if un-named site, has a bit more than that landing. Some 30mm Monday to Saturday, in fact.

There are no prices available on the two ITV races at Haydock at the moment, or Ascot's Graduation Chase (just eight in at the five-day stage) , so nothing doing here obviously.

I will be back on Wednesday with another ante-post column, focusing on the King George as well as those other three races perhaps.

Good luck.

Update as of Tuesday morning (10:30)

They have had a very hefty 10.6mm of rain (still raining as this goes live) at Ascot since midnight, so I thought the ground would have been changed to at least good to soft, with the good patches disappearing.

But the BHA update at 9.41am today still had it as good to soft, good in places, which I found curious. It must have been that fine Goodwood rain that doesn't make a difference.

The forecast from tomorrow onwards is mainly dry, with only spits and spots each day. The less the better for Flegmatik from hereon in.

Ascot - 13:50: No Bet

The Sportsbook have priced up the other ITV race at Ascot on Saturday and they make Solo the 6/42.50 favourite for the 50k Graduation Chase at 13:50 that has attracted just eight entries.

Straw Fan Jack at 12s is marginally the pick of those prices (though he is actually 16s in a place) but it is not a race that has you gagging for a bet.

Mind you, the 5/23.50 second favourite Djelo also has the option of Ascot on Friday, as does Excello, so I was tempted, especially as Straw Fan Jack shaped very well here on his return. The strong suspicion is that he is better over 2m on winter ground, though.

Haydock had 9mm on Monday so they are now soft on the hurdles track and soft, heavy in places, on the chase circuit. The forecast there remains pretty grim with perhaps another 22mm due before race-time on Saturday. It'll be heavy.

Haydock - 13:30: No Bet

The 3m1f125yd Tommy Whittle handicap chase at 13:30 is the big betting race here, and it has attracted a healthy five-day field of 18.

However, the following are double-entered, with Boxing Day entries to come: Bangers And Cash, Got Maker and Shan Blue have other options this week, with Cloudy Glen, Ashtown Lad and Cooper's Cross still in the Welsh National on December 27.

It could cut up a bit then, which is why there are only three places for each way punters.

Famous Bridge is the 9/25.50 favourite in a very cramped betting market, and I am inclined to leave the race alone until I get a better handle on the likely ground on Thursday. We really could be heading into inspection territory by then if they get more rain than forecast.

Cromwell really does have his sights set on UK handicaps this season and his Peaches And Cream would be of obvious interest in stamina-sapping conditions if coming over.

This 3m7f winner even appeared to find an extended 3m3f inadequate when fifth to stablemate Malina's Girl at Cheltenham last month, but 10s is probably no more than fair at this stage about a horse unproven in ground this deep, even if that would put the emphasis firmly on stamina.

Haydock - 14:05: No Bet

The other ITV race ay Haydock is the 1m7f144yd handicap hurdle at 14:05, for which Caithness heads the betting at 4/15.00. Eight of the 15 are priced up at 8s or less.

Donald McCain has three live ones in here, but dual heavy ground winner and recent Flat scorer Goobinator looked a very likely lad for me at 8/19.00 before I spotted he was also in a 0-120 2m3f handicap earlier on in the card, which he would scrape into off his mark of 122.

I can't play him ante-post then - furthermore, owner Tim Leslie also has Word Has It in here and he may want to split the horses up - and other double-entries in the race are as follows: Jagwar, Lipa K, Macanogue and Risk D'Argent.

Back tomorrow with that look at the King George.

Watch Tony on this week's Weighed-In

Read Paul Nicholls' Ditcheat Diary: Weekend winners and near misses have lots of options