Saturday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin has a trio of fresh bets for Betfair Sprint Cup day

• Tony's three antepost tips all go to post

• Our man has three fresh tips on Betfair Sprint Cup day

• A solid 15/28.50 each-way bet in the Irish Champion Stakes

---

You can forgive Haydock, Ascot and Leopardstown for watering in the face of the heatwave this week - less is always best though, clerks - and ITV are showing a mammoth 10 races from four tracks on Saturday.

Haydock - 15:35: No Bet (Saint Lawrence @ 20/121.00 Antepost)

I better start with the race that is the last to be broadcast, Haydock's Group 1 Betfair Sprint Cup at 15:35, and I don't think anyone could seriously argue with Shaquille being installed as the 4/51.80 favourite - he is a bit bigger on the exchange at around even money - even in a maximum field of 17 (Happy Romance actually missed the cut and is the reserve).

His main ante-post market rival Kinross was a no-show on Thursday morning, as 6f on quick ground is not his bag.

I should say the going is currently classed as good, surprisingly so perhaps given the week we are having. The track watered 3mm on Wednesday and actually had some light drizzle on Thursday morning, probably the only place in the country to do so.

It will surely quicken up from here on in, though, with presumably no more watering of any note if it is genuinely good.

I suppose on official figures 4/51.80 is skinny enough (maybe being drawn five may not be ideal if he misses it again, with Swingalong in 18 the most obvious pace angle, along with maybe The Antarctic in 16), but the horse still has a significant upside to him as to do what he has done in the Commonwealth Cup and the July Cup after blowing the starts hints at some serious talent, even though the bare form is impossible to rate that highly in Group 1 terms.

Basically, the official handicapper had to give him a fair amount for the manner of his 1 ½-length defeat of the seemingly exposed 112-rated 5yo Run To Freedom at Newmarket to get him to a mark as high as 120, even if the third and fourth won in Group 2 company next time.

If the work that they have been doing at home to improve his gate speed works (I sounded American there) - they have drafted in "starting stalls guru" Gary Witheford apparently - it could be game over very quickly.

I put up Saint Lawrence at 20/121.00 win-only earlier in the week as obviously I thought he was overpriced and maybe best placed to take advantage if the favourite underperforms.

He bolted up on his first start for Archie Watson in the Wokingham (albeit off a mark of just 100) and then shaped like the best horse in an admittedly weak renewal of the Group 1 Prix Maurice de Gheest on soft ground last time. If he had settled better and not experienced a bit of trouble in running, he would have won.

I am not sure the testing conditions were ideal for him there as well and a return to quick ground is a plus, for a horse at the peak of his powers right now . I have backed him, and Regional to a lesser extent, ante-post and the issue now is whether to go in again.

I'll decline at this stage, though I will check out the betting without Shaquille markets on Saturday morning for possible each way bets on Saint Lawrence and Regional. If there is an angle I will let you know on the Twitter Spaces programme on the Betfair Racing Twitter timeline at 8am on Saturday.

---

Watch Saturday's Racing...Only Bettor podcast here

---

Haydock - 14:25: No Bet (Blindedbythelights @ 9/110.00 E/W Antepost)

I hope Luke Morris, rider of Saint Lawrence, has a very good Saturday as on Tuesday I also put up his Blindedbythelights at 9/110.00 each way, ante-post, in the 3yo 1m6f handicap at 14:25, mainly on the basis that the then 17-runner handicap had the potential to cut up massively.

It has done, as we now have just eight runners, but the problem is Denmark and Naqeeb were confirmed at 10am on Thursday and the presence of the former means Blindedbythelights remains 3lb out of the handicap.

Annoying.

He is now effectively 6lb higher than for his recent Ffos Las second and he is into much deeper waters, but you can mark up that run and he seems the type to improve again for the step up to 1m6f for the first time and we know he handles quick ground. It was good to firm when he won at Yarmouth in June and, perhaps crucially, Timeform called it firm when he won at Newbury (the official description was good).

He saw off his main market rival Surrey Belle in a tussle up front at Ffos Las, only to get mugged by the patiently-ridden Roost late on, so maybe he can cope with a 6lb rise in this classier race. He did finish 3 ½ lengths clear of the third, after all, and that was his first run back off a 71-day break.

I won't press up, as that 3lb could be crucial in a race featuring the likes of Naqeeb and Lordship - I fear the William Haggas pair most, even if the former, a half-brother to Baaeed and Hukum, is unproven on quick ground - though Blindedbythelights may just be the horse best suited to 1m6f on fast ground. Let's hope so.

If there is a bet in the race at the current odds it is arguably Lordship at 5/16.00, trimmed from an opening 6/17.00. Each way backers be warned about the dead-eight though, as a non-runner on quickening ground is not a big price.

Haydock - 13:50: No Bet

Light Infantry hasn't won since his 2yo days but the 1m Group 3 at 13:50 gives him an excellent chance of putting that right before he goes to Australia for a back-end campaign, though ideally he wants a bit of dig and he may have two or three rivals for the lead if Jamie Spencer wants to go from the front.

Sir Busker was briefly a stand-out 14/115.00 with the Sportsbook on Thursday afternoon - that was simply too big about a talented horse who goes well when fresh, and he was cut into 9/110.00 - but I would have rather sided with him each-way at a lesser price right near the off once I know all eight are standing their ground, anyway.

The same as with Lordship, so powder dry for now on both.

Haydock 15:00: Back Aztec Empire (Caius Chorister @ 10/111.00 E/W Antepost)

Of my three ante-post bets this week, I am happiest with the 10/111.00 about Caius Chorister, who now trades at 9/25.50 with the Sportsbook in the 1m6f handicap at 15::00.

He clearly didn't get the breaks under Kyle Strydom when a 3-length sixth in the Ebor - he got squeezed out at a crucial stage around 2f out and you'd have to think he would have gone very close to winning with a clear run - so he has to have a huge chance in a weaker handicap off the same mark here.

He is a horse who is unexposed over 1m6f on quick ground too, and it wouldn't surprise me if Jamie Spencer went from the front from stall two.

I still think he remains a very fair price at 9/25.50 each way - I seriously considered going in again here - but the way I am playing this tipping-wise is to sit with my ante-post position on him, add Aztec Empire at 9/25.50 each way, four places, with the Sportsbook and do a reverse forecast on the pair.

I don't fancy many in here, with the possible exception of 12/113.00 poke Get Shirty, and I want Aztec Empire onside after a clearly unlucky second here last time. A 3lb rise surely won't stop him from being very competitive here. The 5/16.00 unfortunately went just before the column went live but 9/25.50 is okay.

Kempton - 13:35: No Bet

I better get more succinct with the copy, with six races still to cover, so over to Kempton.

Nothing doing in the seven-runner 1m3f September Stakes at 13:35, especially as it could be a messy race with no obvious, guaranteed, forward-goer. It would be disappointing if Bay Bridge doesn't destroy these, mind you, but he is an 11/102.11 chance I can easily leave alone.

Kempton - 14:10: Back First View

1m handicaps around Kempton are often full of hard-luck stories, so I was going to leave the 14:10 alone, even though I was very tempted by First View each way at 5/16.00, four places, with the Sportsbook.

Very tempted.

His 5lb claimer could have problems from stall 11 (the horse likes to go forward, though I suppose he could decide to drop him out and come wide with as many as five pace rivals against him) but, apart from that, he really does have impeccable credentials.

Winner of this race off 90 last year, he only got put up 1lb to 88 for a qualifier he should have won when a ½-length second here last time and his course and distance form figures read 11212. And the other defeat was only by a head.

In the final analysis, I decided to back the horse each way and trust to luck, so he is the tip at 5/16.00 each way, four places. Sometimes the obvious path is the best, and I would rather Christian Howarth delivers him high, wide and hopefully handsome rather than ride for luck down the inner. I haven't heard that for a while.

To be open, there is some 6/17.00 and 11/26.50 knocking about, but 5/16.00 is fine for me.

Ascot - 14:35: No Bet

I don't especially fancy anything in Ascot's 7f handicap at 14:35, though Popmaster and Bless Him appealed most at double-figure prices without me feeling the need to hit the back button. If you are not betting yourself, you should certainly not be tipping.

I am sure plenty will give Orbaan another chance now he has dropped down to a mark of just 92, and I can see the pace angles for Quinault and Love De Vegas next to the stands' rail, but it just looked a nasty little race to me.

Ascot - 15:10: No Bet

Likewise, the 1m4f handicap at 15:10, though a prominent ride on the blinkered-first-time Victory Dance half interested me after a fair run off a break at Deauville last time.

The strength of the Charlie Appleby stable is easy to throw stones at, but the yard form isn't, as he was 6 from 14 going into Thursday's racing since August 25 (and has just had a Listed race second in France, and a Haydock winner). He has the best strike rate of any big stable in the UK this season by some distance.

A mark of 102 could underestimate Victory Dance's raw talent but whether he wants 1m4f is debatable and 9/25.50 is no bargain in the circumstances.

Leopardstown - 15:20: Back Onesto

There's top-class action is at Leopardstown and ITV are showing two Group 1 races, the Matron Stakes at 14:45 and the big one, the Irish Champion Stakes, at 15:20.

Zarinsk and Meditate could be each way options against the odds-on Tahiyra in the Matron but the bet in those two races is surely Onesto at 15/28.50 each way, with the Sportsbook in the 15:20.

The formbook suggests he would like more give but he ran well in the Japan Cup on good to firm, when his trainer reckoned he should have finished closer, so hopefully that won't be an issue.

He was having his first start since that race last November when a clearly promising fourth over an inadequate mile in the Jacques Le Marois last time and that was obviously a tee-up job for another shot at this.

He went down by only ½-length to Luxembourg in this race last season (his fifth start of the campaign) and he obviously comes here a much fresher horse.

He will do for me win and place at 15/28.50.

---