Betfair Sprint Cup Antepost Tips: Tony Calvin's backing a 20/1 Saint at Haydock

• Shaquille a red hot favourite for the Betfair Sprint Cup

• Participation doubts about a few at the top of the market

• Quick ground could benefit 20/121.00 Saint Lawrence

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Betfair Sprint Cup day at Haydock in early September used to be a regular haunt of mine when I did some work for the former sponsor of the 6f Group 1 contest - and I rarely recall it being run in anything but a monsoon when I was in attendance.

I seem to remember it lashing down when Harry Angel and The Tin Man won it on heavy in 2017 and 2018 respectively but since Betfair took over the reins in 2019 the weather and the ground have improved, with it actually being run on official good to firm for the last two renewals.

And we could be heading for going on the quick side once again.

The current ground description for Haydock's three-day meeting starting on Thursday is good, good to soft in places, but the country is set to have a glorious week in the mid-to-high 20s and that bizarrely also includes the usual rain-trap that is Newton-Le-Willows.

Before we touch upon how those conditions will help or hinder the main market leaders, this meeting always brings up the memory of one of the most frightening scenes I have witnessed when attending a racecourse.

I am sure it was Sprint Cup day back in 2017 as I recall sitting in a hotel bar afterwards watching Decorated Knight win the Irish Champion Stakes at 25/126.00, still in a state of shock and amazed relief that I had just ordered two drinks and not one.

Basically, I was at Haydock that year doing some work for 32Red, and the Racing Post's Paul Kealy came along for a long and boozy freebie day out.

After necking the sponsor's booze all afternoon, we decided to walk from the track to the Mercure Haydock Hotel about half a mile away to try to get another drink and a cab back to Warrington Bank Quay Station and then back to London on the train.

Unfortunately, this necessitated trying to navigate the busy main road outside of the track, and the portly Kealy duly made a dash for it in between heavy traffic.

Unwise.

He was probably too drunk to remember the hole he was in, but I sobered up very damn quickly when seeing a rather large white truck aimed straight at him, only 50 yards or so away and steaming along at a fair old lick.

Remember, Kealy is no Jason Robinson possessed with the cutting late sidestep - think the 2003 World Cup quarter-final against Wales and think again - and, like Maggie, this truck was clearly not for turning.

Now, I am not sure what I actually screamed at him - probably "Stop You C..." - or how he reacted, as I pretty much shut my eyes, and waited for the inevitable, sickening thud but when I opened them he was thankfully still standing in the middle of the road.

Now, that vehicle was travelling and it must have missed him by centimeters - how it did, I am genuinely still unsure to this day - and I don't think I recall too many times when someone has so clearly cheated immediate death in my presence.

I imagine the in-running Drone players punting overhead hoovered up all the 1.01 about his demise.

I still shudder at the thought and image, not least because I would have missed the last rattler back to Euston had he been splattered to all four corners of Haydock.

At least the identification process would have been made easier as the Guinness-drinking Kealy's grundies would have surely given the game away as he stared death in the face.

I, and his dry cleaners no doubt, don't even want to explore the possibility that he goes Commando.

I am actually staying at that very hotel on Friday night and will probably be making the same trek over that road in order to get a cab to the station after racing on Saturday, but I will be channeling my Green Cross Code (one for the oldies that) if I do so.

Playing for places if Shaquille gets away on terms?

Right, enough of all our yesterdays, let's get to grips with the Betfair Sprint Cup. There were 28 entries before Monday's five-day stage and now there are 23, with Mill Stream and Believing being supplemented, which is pretty punchy given that they are 11/112.00 and 16/117.00 respectively.

I can see the case for giving rapid improver Mill Stream a spin (he is as short as 7/18.00 in places) but narrow Pontefract Listed race winner Believing is an odd one, for all Group 1 black-type is a fair draw I suspect.

The last traded price on the exchange for Shaquille before the ante-post market was suspended ahead of the five-day stage at midday on Monday was 2.26/5 and I think that pretty accurately summed up his winning chance.

He is now 10/111.91 with the Sportsbook after seven horses came out of the race on Monday, and the above two came in.

To do what he has done in the Commonwealth Cup and the July Cup after blowing the starts hints at some serious talent, even though the bare form is impossible to rate that highly in Group 1 terms.

Basically, the official handicapper had to give him plenty for the manner of his 1 ½-length defeat of the seemingly exposed 112-rated 5yo Run To Freedom at Newmarket, but it is justified.

And I suppose the numbers men can also draw on the fact that the third, Kinross, has since come out and won a brace of Group 2s, and the fourth Art Power also obliged in that grade at his beloved Curragh.

Trainer Julie Camacho has addressed the issue of his slow starts by drafting in "starting stalls guru" Craig Witheford since Newmarket, and apparently they are going to try something new at Haydock, in that the stalls rug he uses is going to be taken off moments before the gates open.

If he gets away on terms, then his rivals could be playing for second place very early into the race.

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Ground issues for second and third favs

July Cup third Kinross, and the Sportsbook's 9/25.50 second favourite, handles fast ground perfectly well but he ideally needs some dig when racing over 6f, as he showed when beating Run To Freedom pointless by 2 ½ lengths on good to soft in the Champions Sprint at Ascot last October.

Given that he was a non-runner on good to firm in this race last year, he can't really be considered an ante-post proposition with the current weather forecast, though when the hot spell breaks at some point I imagine thunderstorms will soon follow.

I suspect Haydock will have to get pretty jiggy with the watering can for him to run, but Ralph Beckett could chance it I guess - and pray for those end-of-Indian Summer soakings after the overnight dec stage at 10am on Thursday morning - as he could still run a stormer given his obvious form claims.

Spycatcher is third in the betting at 10/111.00 but he hasn't raced on official good to firm ground since his 3yo days (a decent third on it in an Ascot Group 3) so I imagine connections think he needs rain.

He was a non-runner on good ground at Haydock in April and his big recent progression has come in testing conditions, notably when touched off by a whisker in the Prix Maurice de Gheest last time. More of that form shortly.

In fact, Timeform have it as good to firm when he beat only one home in the John Of Gaunt here last season so, as with Kinross, they both have the form to give the favourite something to think about, but will they even run?

Regional on my radar and his price is fair

There are no issues with the ground with 12/113.00 poke Sacred but she will have to put behind her an underwhelming 3-length fifth to Kinross in the City Of York last month.

I am not going to go through all the runners but obviously 14/115.00 chance Regional came across my radar once again.

I backed and tipped him when he was a huge on-the-day drifter in the Nunthorpe - as low as 7/18.00 with the Sportsbook in the morning he went off at a Betfair SP of 24.023/1 - and, for all I was obviously disappointed to a degree with his fifth there, the fact of the matter is he probably at least ran up his best to be beaten 2 ½ lengths.

It was an unsatisfactory race though, with the winner rated 107 going into the race and the 2 ¼-length fourth on a mark of just 101, and maybe he does need 6f if he is to make his mark in Group 1 sprints.

Third in a Stewards' Cup, he clearly gets the trip well and he is also two from two at Haydock, but he will probably be 14/115.00 on the day, and he certainly wouldn't want any end-of-week downpours. All in all though, the 18.535/2 about him on the exchange looks fair.

The problem I have when tipping here and now is that I think Shaquille is going to take a fair lot of whacking and I can't see his price shifting too much. He currently trades at 2.166/5 on the exchange as this goes live.

That means there is not a lot of scope for horses to shorten in behind him, and I'd also be pretty sure the sponsors will be paying at least four places on the race come Thursday afternoon, as this has the makings of a big field.

Actually, one worry for Shaquille backers could well be that if we do get a sizeable line-up (maybe even a maximum field of 17), then I suppose the draw comes firmly into play on Saturday.

I am soldiering on and, if I find a bet that I am having myself, then I will tip it.

Quick ground could bring about more progression

You can make a case for a fair few but after a final scan of the prices and the field, I landed on Saint Lawrence. Judged on his last two runs alone, he has a hugely likeable profile and I am chucking a few quid on him win-only at 20/121.00 with the Sportsbook, or 21.020/1 or bigger on the exchange.

A small wager, but a wager nonetheless.

I could well be pressing up on him each-way if he gets to the race at the weekend - I have no reason to think he won't rock up - with an extra place or two.

Basically, strip out all his form for previous trainer Roger Varian, and concentrate on his two starts for Archie Watson and I like what I see.

He gagged up in the Wokingham on quick ground at Royal Ascot, albeit off a mark of just 100, and he shaped like the best horse in the Group 1 Prix Maurice de Gheest last time. The official going at Deauville was "very soft" but Timeform called it soft, so the weather shouldn't be factor whatever happens.

Looking at the replay of that French Group 1 on France Galop, he really should have won.

Slow out of the gates, and maybe a bit too keen in rear in what appeared a relatively slowly-run race, Hollie Doyle had to switch him to the outside for a run and she failed by only a short head a neck to get up.

Doyle took a while to organize the strong traveller there, and maybe the ground was too deep for him (all his previous bests were on good or quicker, and he hung a bit in Deauville) , so quick ground come Saturday could well see that progression for Archie Watson continue.

I'll be back late tomorrow afternoon with another ante-post column on a great weekend of racing.

Good luck.

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