Cheltenham Big Race Verdict: Lavelle's King to rule in Saturday ITV clash

• Focus on Cheltenham on Saturday over fences 

• Win selection at 15/28.50 and each-way chances at 12/113.00 and 16/117.00

• Alan Dudman delivers the latest Big Race Verdict for this weekend 

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Market moves for Cheltenham 14:20

The big race on Saturday for the Showcase meeting is the 14:20 Handicap Chase over 3m1f with some old favourites and a top weight running from 150.

Nicky Henderson's Hyland was solid at the top of the betting from 5/16.00 into 4/15.00, while Henry De Bromhead's The Short Go - another prominent in the Sportsbook market had moved from 15/28.50 to 13/27.50 on Friday afternoon.

There are five places on the Sportsbook for each-way players although nothing was contracting at the time of writing. In fact quite a few drifts were taking place with Manothepeople hitting 16/117.00 from 10/111.00 and Sea Music from 16/117.00 out to 20/121.00.

Irish challenge and the fitness edge

The Irish intended runners have fitness on their side. Gordon Elliott's Three Card Brag was last seen running in a Grade 3 just 31 days ago. Emmet Mullins' Sea Music was in the same contest while Fascile Mode ran on the 1st October.

Man of the moment, or indeed man of the people, Sean Bowen, is booked for Backmeorsackme - a 9/110.00chance for Emmet Mullins, whose form doesn't deserve the price, but Bowen does after his astonishing week in the saddle.

Ground and who holds the key form

Hyland possesses some very smart form although was last seen pulling up in the Grand National - so that has to be in the back of your mind whether they'll be going down that route again.

He did win at this meeting last season and thumped Transmission by 15L the novice chase on the card and subsequently backed up again winning at the November meeting.

His form is on genuine good ground however but his record here makes him the one to beat.

While Hyland was a mile clear of Transmission last season here, I thought he had the look of an each-way play earlier in the week and didn't ran too badly in the old four miler (now less) at the Fez, although I had a sneaking suspicion the stamina was stretched, but 15 lengths is a lot to find against a peak Hyland.

Rock My Way's jumping would worry me especially if there is pace on here and he's pressured as he isn't the most fluent.

The low weights here Minella Blueway and Ballycamus still have plenty of potential. The former improved for the cheekpieces last term with two wins and unusually for an Evan Williams' horse, likes to be up with the pace. Any soft conditions for him suits well, and Ballycamus beat Minella Blueway last term at Windsor and will be fit after appearing on the rock-hard plains at Chepstow recently.

Tactics and pace map

Front runners: Hyland, Fascile Mode, Escaria Ten.

Prominent racers: Nassalam, Three Card Brag, Hyland, Dunboyne, Rock My Way, Escaria Ten, Inch House, Hoe Joly Smoke, Ballycamus, Minella Bluway.

Mid-division: Sea Music.

Hold-up horses: Sea Music, Light N Strike, Manothepeople, King's Threshold, The Short Go, Transmission, Hoe Joly Smoke.

Alan Dudman's 1-2-3 Verdict

For win purposes, the chance of King's Threshold looks the most appealing for Emma Lavelle at 15/28.50 as the ground comes alike with winning form on both good and soft.

Last term his victory at Newbury by over 5L saw him beat a few 130+ plus horses with ease and he travelled so well to come from off the pace, and with the set-up here for Saturday and with plenty that like to be up there, the hold-up tactics will be of great benefit.

Ben Jones rides, and he was on the mark in the first yesterday on the card and if you can jump at Newbury and the fences there, you can jump anywhere. King's Threshold is the number one pick for me.

Ballycamus and Minella Blueway as a pair of each-ways and the latter off a very low weight stays and has the potential to improve on his mark from 124 and conditions with cut in the ground in a test will suit him. This is a big ride for Isobel Williams too.

And the third pick, Dunboyne is a 16/117.00 chance and looks to have a bit of class as a Munster National winner on good ground, so we know he's a stayer for this sort of trip and a strong stayer. He was a winner off 122 in heavy over hurdles and was fourth in the Irish Grand National last spring from 135, and he runs from the same mark.

Now he might well need this outing, but fourth in a stronger race and from the same mark warrants interest.

1) King's Threshold

2) Minella Blueway

3) Dunboyne

Now read Paul Nicholls on his weekend runners here!