-
Low draw
-
Can improve on the latest Southwell run
-
King's Lynn can get the jump on hold-up horses
-
There's little to get excited about on Wednesday in the National Hunt Sphere, so a switch of codes is required to try to earn some profit. Profit would not be a word you would associate with a horse that hasn't won since 2022, but it might be that King's Lynn - 17/29.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - has things fall right for him from a low draw in stall two at Kempton today.
Andrew Balding won this race last year with Fivethousandtoone, who is now lined up for Tim Easterby, but the angle could be to side with prominent racers in a field full of those who like to come from off the gallop.
King's Lynn had been ridden forward last time at Southwell when going down narrowly to Badri. Still, he kept on strongly in the closing stages and provided Callum Hutchinson could get a good break from stall two, he would be in the correct place at the right time, battling away at death.
Those drawn wide include last year's winner, Fivethousandtoone, Rosario and favourite Heathcliff. They will be forced to come from off the gallop.
Add in that's how Aramis Grey, the lowest drawn Tiger Crusade, and Cajetan tend to be ridden, and it's undoubtedly going to be beneficial to be ridden handy.
In the hope that Hutchinson can grab the rail and keep kicking, he could find this is his day from a reduced handicap rating. Today is his third start following a break, and he has twice been successful, third time out, and been beaten into a neck second.
He looks worth siding with in the hope that he can back up his latest RPR of 96 - an 11lb improvement on his return effort. Furthermore, his RPR ratings on the AW in his career (the last 18 months) outside of a break read 96, 99, 102, 102 and 96. He is still relatively unexposed on the AW, and the recent fitting of the cheek-pieces may not have been seen to maximum effect yet. He was a narrow Southwell third in November, had an excusable run at Newcastle when beaten four lengths following a break, and was a narrow second last time.
He could cause a surprise and looks good each-way value at 6/17.00 or bigger.
19:00 Kempton - Back King's Lynn
DARYL'S P/L HISTORY
2021 P/L = +187pts 12% ROI
2022 P/L = + 137.1pts ROI 8.72% +22.7pts BSP 1.44% ROI
2023 P/L = +112.63pts ROI 8.86% +99.4pts BSP 7.84% ROI
2023 P/L (Incl ante) Total = +146.63 ROI 11.5%
2024 p/l = +58.93pts ROI 5.03% +8.7pts BSP 0.74% ROI
2024 (Incl ante) Total +60.26pts