Irish Oaks Big Race Verdict: Back Thundering On to recapture Classic form on Saturday

Thundering On has questions to answer

If Epsom was blissful watching, Thundering On's run and defeat in the Pretty Polly at the end of June was far from it and Joseph O'Brien's filly is the key player here.

The rather lacklustre effort last time dropped down to 1m2f creates a doubt whether she really is a top-drawer filly. While there was no shame in finishing fourth to Estrange in a top-level race, she did look a world beater in the English Oaks.

11 (5)

Thundering On

• J: D. B. McMonagle
• T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien, Ireland
• F: 42-2114

• SBK 9/4
• EXC 3.4

Was the quick ground against her last time? Was it the drop to 1m2f? Questions will all be answered this Saturday.

By all accounts she didn't look great in the parade ring last time, but suggestions that she could have been "over the top" are harsh for only her fourth run of the season. If you want to give her another chance, she is 2/13.00. She'd be a lot shorter if not for running in the PP and that rather low wattage performance.

Ninth Irish Oaks win unlikely for Aidan - or is it?

As usual, O'Brien senior has the full battalion at his mercy, and the plotting Ballydoyle general has five chances here to cap a ninth Irish Oaks.

Having five in the race suggests even O'Brien might struggle to name the number one chance. On the betting, it's Amelia Earhart, who was 18L behind Thundering On at Epsom and now has the cheekpieces applied.

1 (8)

Amelia Earhart (Ire)

• J: Ryan Moore
• T: Aidan O'Brien, Ireland
• F: 32241-16

• SBK 11/2
• EXC 8

She was impressive at Chester in the spring, but that looked a weak race and she still has to prove herself at this level over this trip.

In an unusual twist, the next four Aidan fillies are 25/126.00, 50/151.00 and 66/167.00. If there is going to be a shock at the prices I think Cameo can outrun her odds as the summer conditions might suit her better with her Lingfield Oaks Trial win on good to firm.

There's a UK challenge at last

I've been critical of the UK trainers for not showing some dash and courage but at least William Haggas and David Menuisier have heeded the call with big chances in Earth Shot and Inis Mor.

Earth Shot was beaten by Inis Mor in the Cocked Hat at Goodwood and the head-to-head in Sussex was a great race with neither flinching.

5 (2)

Earth Shot (Ire)

• J: James Doyle
• T: William Haggas
• F: 2-121

• SBK 7/2
• EXC 5.1

Both were ridden handily but the pace finish speed of 113% highlighted a sprint, and while Earth Shot was beaten by a whisker, Inis Mor looked to have a little more pace three wide and Haggas' filly does hold an entry in the Lillie Langtry over 1m6f back at Goodwood.

Earth Shot somehow got up up Ascot in the Ribblesdale, coming from a fair way back and a poor position inside to out to mow down Johanna Walsh - another great race and another great finish, but with the 100% finish speed and how hard it was for Earth Shot to get there, she is very much a stayer.

She had a hard race, though, while Inis Mor came out of Goodwood to finish third in the Diane (French Oaks) over the extended 1m2f and she returns to 1m4f.

Bravo for both having a go. The O'Briens cannot win everything.

Bolger on the scene too

Jim Bolger, the wily old fox at 84 years of age gave me one of my trickiest interviews on Timeform Radio many years ago, but I have just about forgiven him (which I am sure he is relieved about).

He has supplemented Sparan Nua to the tune of 50k this week in a bid to get back into the Irish Oaks hall of fame - a race he has won twice before in 1983 and 2002.

9 (3)

Sparan Nua (Ire)

• J: Declan McDonogh
• T: J. S. Bolger, Ireland
• F: 111

• SBK 13/2
• EXC 8.8

"Sparan Nua hasn't had a proper Classic preparation mainly because she was a little bit weak last year, so we left her alone and we didn't start back with her until well into the new year," said Bolger.

"I must admit she has surprised us somewhat, but we are all ready for Saturday."

She is going to be the wiseguy or wisegal horse here; the unexposed unknown, stepping up in class. At [15/2] I can see her price lowering but her narrow win against Nyra in the Munster Oaks wasn't a breathtaking run, as Nyra is a well exposed filly who struggles to win.

The ground won't be an issue as in just three starts she is versatile and it was pretty lively for her debut at Naas.

Irish Oaks pace map and tactics

FRONT RUNNERS: Johanna Walsh, Sugar Island, Cameo.

PROMINENT: Johanna Walsh, Amelia Earhart, Inis Mor, Earth Shot, Cameo, Beautify.

MID-DIVISION: Sparan Nua, Inis Mor.

HOLD-UP: Rebel Moon, Thundering On.

Alan Dudman's Irish Oaks 1-2-3

The reasons for Thundering On's flop in the Pretty Polly could centre around the fact she was found to be coughing afterwards and it was a fairly quick turnaround from Epsom taking on her elders.

She was brilliant at Epsom so I cannot ignore that display and with the way she travels, you can see on the pace map she is sure to be held up.

Earth Shot looks a stayer, more so than Inis Mor and Johanna Walsh and Rebel Moon are the up-and-comers, and preference is for Rebel Moon, who was ridden like a good filly last time at Group 3 level.

She had a hold up after her debut win (which has worked out well) and she seemed to travel well on better going and conceded first run and she looks a big price at 10/111.00.

I think she'll improve for the trip.

1. Thundering On
2. Rebel Moon
3. Earth Shot

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