Cheltenham Festival Focus: 20/1 National Hunt Chase price looks far too big

• Readers' questions answered

• National Hunt Chase looks there for the taking

• Take a 25/126.00 power swing before the Lawlors Of Naas

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Your questions answered

Never normally bother with the X country race but Minella Indo absolutely jumps off the page imo ,thoughts?

-- Neil Fay (@NeilFay2) January 5, 2024

I agree with you, Neil. He must have a big chance on his prep run and will be 20lb better off with the winner, Latenightpass, for a five-length deficit. There's plenty to like about his chances.

Fact to file
Gaelic warrior
Facile vega
Blood destiny
Il etait temps

Put your ante post bets aside, what races would you put them in for there best chances at the festival ?

-- Michael walker (@MichaelWal59635) January 5, 2024

Thanks for the Q, Michael. I would send Fact To File to the Brown Advisory--Gaelic Warrior to the Turners, which looks like a penalty kick.

Facile Vega to the Arkle - his latest run was far too bad to be true.

Blood Destiny has a current rating of 141 in Ireland, and I would like to see him in a Grand Annual or a plate, but it is unlikely. Il Etait Temps will give his owners a day out in the Arkle.

Do you think we'll Giovinco at Cheltenham in March?

So far, he's been very under whelming in top Novice company.

I was putting it down to the jockey at first, but I'm starting to think he may be nothing more than a handicapper.

Could we see him in an Ultima?

-- JamieTheSensible (@JamieSensible) January 5, 2024

To be honest, I was shocked at how many people fancied Giovinco for a Brown Advisory at the start of the season, having only won run-of-the-mill contests at Perth. My honest opinion is that he is very much overrated.

He can probably be competitive in an Ultima off of 146, but the bigger field scenario would worry me with one who can throw in a mistake. Most of his runs have come in small fields. He won't be winning in Grade 1 company anyway.

Fastorslow form lines - were the wins over Galopin genuine form (Galopin no doubt underperformed on both occasions). And how do you rate Corach Rambler's chances via Fastorslow? Cheers

-- rich (@richardgambler1) January 5, 2024

Great Q Rich. I must admit I am not a believer in Fastorslow yet! He took advantage of a good opportunity at the end of last season over Galopin Des Champs and then beat him in a slow run 2m3f race this. Appreciate It was far too close for my liking at Punchestown in November, and him being more like 41 lengths behind Galopin at Leopardstown is more true to form in my mind.

Corach Rambler loves Cheltenham, so don't hold anything against him before then. He has a fair chance in the Gold Cup but is probably right at 20/121.00. You seem very much on the same lines as me. I don't think there's much between Corach and Fastorslow.

Ballyburn a lay or play in the Ballymore mate?

-- Chris Webster (@Chriswe27061680) January 5, 2024

I wouldn't be either at the moment. I think he is good, but I think people want him to be better than he is showing.

He doesn't tower above any of the other novices at the moment but that's not to say he can't. He is one of those horses where I feel if nothing shows me anything between now and March I would probably reluctantly side with him.

Easy one Dazzler, just tell us where all the Mullins Novice Chasers will go

-- Tony Deakin (@BeachyHead3) January 5, 2024

Jesus Tony. There's no crystal ball here, lad. Willie Mullins, as you know, is a nightmare to predict. Even in my advised selection today, I nearly split the stakes on races.

The Lawlors of Naas will help in that regard for Novice hurdlers - I hope.

Want to know your thoughts on The Real Whacker & where he should go next .. Form has taken a dip, albeit running in better races. Is he just not top class?

-- Tom Hardman (@thomashardman) January 5, 2024

I don't think he is Tom. It was a messy old race that Brown Advisory, and when he couldn't dictate, he seemed to down tools. His trainer's confidence was endearing, but I am afraid it was misplaced - at Grade 1 level at least.

Ante post Yankee mate win or ew, the 4 best bets or best value - you choose

-- Matt Ackerman (@MattAllSportAck) January 5, 2024

Value is always king, you know that, Matt. I had this prepared on the podcast for you, but those pesky producers didn't add it in. Glad you came back with it.

I'll give you horses that are sure to go for their races.

6/1 Sir Gino - Triumph Hurdle
6/1 Envoi Allen - is a great price to defend the Ryanair Crown
8/1 Jade Du Grugy - Mares Novice
8/1 Crambo - Stayers - Irish Point obviously an unknown if he goes there

A £1 Yankee on the Betfair Sportsbook pays over £6k - probably worth doing e/w.

The festival banker double, treble and quadruple!

-- SAM JONES (@SJ1706) January 5, 2024

Jesus Sam! Ok, I will have a bash.

Marine Nationale - Arkle

Galopin Des Champs - Gold Cup

Pays 3/14.00

Dino Blue - Mares Chase

Pays 11/112.00

Gaelic Warrior - Turners

Pays 23/124.00

All punters want to get off to a winning start so based on what you have seen so far what wins the supreme??

-- Mark Derrett (@mlderrett) January 5, 2024

We do, Mark. I am looking at Jeriko Du Reponet, and It's For Me.

Jeriko Du Reponet cannot be as short as he is on what he has done on the track, so it leads me to believe that there is some serious money somewhere for this horse.

It's For Me needs to settle, but he is fast and has to be going close. I do have a niggling doubt about It's For Me, though. I liked him for the bumper last year, and he has done nothing wrong - he recorded the highest RPR of the Novices by some distance.

Still, my gut feeling hasn't allowed me to put him in this column, and I don't quite know why.

Give us a few horses that flopped over Christmas that you can see now being a value bet for cheltenham ?

-- Michael walker (@MichaelWal59635) January 5, 2024

Facile Vega's run was too bad to be true. If Willie Mullins sticks to the original plan and goes to the Arkle, he cannot go off a 9/110.00 chance.

Q. From Neil Dawkins - Champion Hurdle Questions.

1. Should Bob Ollinger go the Champion or Stayers?
2. How does State Man / Mullins' yard try to beat C. Hill?
3. Are there any big-priced outsiders worth chancing EW with the current three places?

Bob Olinger should certainly go to the Champion Hurdle. Whether he has any chance of getting close to Constitution Hill is another matter. He would add an interesting element for us all watching the race. We all know how good Bob looked at one time, and he isn't short of pace. He won't stay 3m on the horsewalker.

State Man has to change tactics. He has a sharp turn of foot and will probably want to turn the race into a sprint off the front. Somehow, I don't think Nico will allow that. So he can't.

Mister Meggit 33/134.00 in the Bumper and Under Control 50/151.00 Mares Hurdle.

Sire du berlais @ 160/1 last year...what's this years tip!!!!

-- SAM JONES (@SJ1706) January 5, 2024

What a day that was, Sam. They come around once in a lifetime, though, I suspect. The biggest price horse I have on the radar currently is Under Control @ 50/151.00 for the Mares Hurdle. I am waiting for another entry, although there were positive updates for her in Nicky Henderson's blog.

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Back Corbetts Cross to win the National Hunt Chase @ 20/121.00 1pt

There is enough evidence in three chase runs to now suggest Corbetts Cross' jumping will see him falter to the speed test of a Turners Chase, so I firmly think that contest at Cheltenham is off the radar for him.

The Grade 1 option for the Brown Advisory must be his aim but has now been comprehensively held by Brown Advisory favourite Grangeclare West on two occasions, so the camp's enthusiasm for a form reversal must be diminished.

Throw in the depth of the Brown Advisory with Albert Bartlett conqueror Stay Away Fay, and even the owner's more appealing and promising Fact To File - who will undoubtedly be aimed at Grade 1 level, having missed a Novice hurdle season - could see him tackle the longer trip having qualified at Leopardstown.

His recent second in the Nevills Hotel Novices Chase has a good record for the winner going on to glory in the Brown Advisory in March but a poor record for those in behind attempting to reverse the form or even running over a shorter trip at the festival - in which he would bump into two exceptional horses in Gaelic Warrior and Marine Nationale.

However, 2022 Neville Hotel winner Gaillard Du Mesnil doubled up in the National Hunt Chase, Run Wild Fred was second before filling the same spot in the National Hunt Chase, Vanillier third and third, Jury Duty in 2017 finished runner up before going off favourite for the race in March and both Martello Tower and Very Wood also took this route having run in the Nevilles.

History is only a guide, and Emmet Mullins could end up with this one in the Arkle, given his unpredictable training methods. Still, on all known evidence, the National Hunt Chase would suit him very well and, at this stage, looks like one of only a few festival options.

The slower pace will help his jumping, he has a touch of class, and he has looked more of a stayer over fences than he ever did over hurdles.

He needed every yard at Fairyhouse over 2m5f on deep ground, couldn't muster the pace behind Grangeclare West at Leopardstown under the same conditions, but finished with running left, having been given an easy time, and the way he travelled through the Albert Bartlett last year, suggests he should have little trouble out in distance.

JP McManus hasn't had a runner in the National Hunt Chase since Jerrysback in 2019 but has had plenty of success in recent years partnering with Derek O'Connor, who has a 33% strike rate for Emmet Mullins (6-18), and it would be no surprise should these two combined again for this race.

Corbetts Cross reminds me a lot of the 2016 National Hunt Chase winner Minella Rocco, and they may think they have a future national horse on their hands.

Compared to one firm's NRNB market, I think 20/121.00 is too big, so I am willing to take a chance if he heads down this route.

Back Mystical Power for the Ballymore @ 25/126.00 1pt

With the Lawlors Of Naas on Sunday, I wanted to take a big swing with Mystical Power, an intriguing entry that looked out of the ordinary when winning on hurdle debut last July. It's simply on the basis that nothing out of the ordinary lies in these Novice races at the moment, and something has to be better than the mid-130 form we have seen.

His pedigree is illustrious, by Galileo and the first foal out of the excellent Annie Power, and he is joint-owned by Rich Richi and JP McManus, so big things are expected. He didn't impress in his bumper at Ballinrobe on debut in May 2023, but he got the job done.

However, it was a huge step forward to his win at Galway on his hurdle debut, and he ran out an effortless winner.

The time of year of that debut victory is an obvious concern, and the easy thing to do is suggest he wouldn't be up to the level of winter horses on that basis alone.

However, he ran out an outstanding race winner by seven lengths, which could have been as many as you would like if Mark Walsh had pushed any buttons and he was conceding experience to previous winners.

His best work came at the finish, and not a lot went right for him throughout the race, but he was 11 lengths faster than the handicap winner and 26 quicker than the bumper.

The form has worked out as well as you could have hoped for a "summer hurdle".

The runner-up, who gave him seven pounds, Samui, is now rated 128 and a Listed winner (he was beaten eight lengths in the Grade 2 Aintree Bumper in April and a NR in the Champion Bumper at the last hour).

Samui had been beaten by Willie Mullins' Jit Langy at Tipperary - a horse previously narrowly behind Gust Of Wind (135) in France and looked like a top horse. The 11-length third is rated 109 and could have easily been beaten further. The fourth is rated 122 and not beaten far by Magic Tricks in a Listed Handicap (The Model Kingdom in second) this season, and he easily put up more of a fight in that race than this.

He is very much open to further improvement, and, interestingly, Willie Mullins starts his season straight into a Grade 1.

The last horse to make his seasonal debut in this race for Willie Mullins was Duc Des Genievres, who finished fifth in the Ballymore in a year when Samcro was at the heights of his power and near unbeatable.

I make it clear that this is very much an educated swing, but he looks like a smart horse to my eye, and this division has no stand out at the moment, with nothing running above the mid 130s in Ireland and high to very low 130s in England, and that's not far off what he achieved at Galway.

I was taken by Mullins' comments, who was already eyeing the Grade 1 Royal Bond with him immediately after Galway, and I think he has been underestimated.

I could, of course, be completely wide of the mark. I have also had a small bet for the Supreme, but JP McManus has plenty he could run in that.

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Read Cheltenham Focus Week 8 here - Xmas review.

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