Kevin Blake's Day Two Cheltenham Tips: 5/1 Monty's Star one of three bets on Wednesday

• Kevin is backing Rachael Blackmore on Day 2

• Brazil also a fancy in the Coral Cup at juicy odds

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Rachael Blackmore Superboost

Rachael has a solid each-way chance on Monty's Star in the Brown Advisory at 14:10 today, and if you fancy the horse to finish in the top three then you can back it at the super-boosted price of 1/12.00, from 4/91.44.

The Brown Advisory Novices' Chase is a race that hasn't changed much at all over the years, but plenty has changed around it. Back in the good old days when top novice chasers only had the choice of the Arkle Challenge Trophy or the Brown Advisory, it tended to attract a deeper field than it has since the extension of the meeting to four days has added alternative options for previously likely candidates for it.

Mind, I recall that when I first started following racing in the early noughties that there was a popular theory that the Brown Advisory was a race that left a mark on horses and held back their progression.

So popular was this theory that it perhaps contributed to the likes of Kicking King and War Of Attrition running in the Arkle rather than the Brown Advisory prior to going on to win the Gold Cup at the Cheltenham Festival.

That theory has long since evaporated, but the race has other challenges now in the shape of the Turners' Novices' Chase and the National Hunt Chase which both take away what would be strong contenders for the Brown Advisory. That is very much the case this year, but we are still left with an interesting contest that promises to be revealing.

Brown Advisory Novices' Chase Pace Map

From a pace mapping perspective, quite a few of these have made the running at least once over fences, but the most likely leader looks to be Stay Away Fay.

He is a strong stayer that made much of the running when winning his first two starts over fences and was ridden a bit more quietly when stepped up into open company for the Cotswold Chase at the Cheltenham last time. With first-time cheekpieces applied, a return to more positive tactics seems likely.

Giovinco is another that has helped push the pace a couple of times over fences. Monty's Star helped push the pace on his latest start and might well be up there again.

Where else can one start but with the Willie Mullins-trained Fact To File. The seven-year-old was one of the leading bumper performers last season and Mullins raised many an eyebrow when making the rare decision to send him straight from bumpers over fences ala Florida Pearl and Missed That.

He was beaten by American Mike (reopposes here) without any great excuse on the day on his chasing debut in November, but he has produced a much stronger level of performance in his two starts since then.

He got off the mark over fences in a maiden chase at Leopardstown's Christmas meeting, very much impressing with his performance on the clock over the final four fences, but raising some concerns with how willing he was to shorten into his fences in the first half of the race.

However, he produced a much sharper performance in a match against Gaelic Warrior in the Ladbrokes Novice Chase at the Dublin Racing Festival. Mind, it was the sharpness of his performance that raises concerns about his prospects in this race.

Gaelic Warrior set a strong pace

Despite having just two runners, that race was notable for a particularly strong pace set by Gaelic Warrior. A very competitive handicap chase was run over the same course and distance later on the card and fence-by-fence comparisons illustrate just how fast Gaelic Warrior was going.

By the seventh fence, Gaelic Warrior was already 5.5 seconds (approx 27.5 lengths) ahead of the leader in the handicap, but he went even faster from there and by the 10^th fence he was 8.8 seconds (approx 44 lengths) ahead of the handicap. During this red-hot phase of the novice chase, Fact To File was anything but struggling for pace, in fact it looked like he wanted to go even faster and Mark Walsh had to take him back after he had got upsides Gaelic Warrior at the seventh fence.

After taking up the running after the fourth-last fence, Fact To File actually extended his lead over the leader in the handicap to 9.6 seconds (approx. 48 lengths) at the second-last fence. From there, with Gaelic Warrior struggling Fact To File didn't need to be extended and ended up coming home just 3.1 seconds (approx. 15.5 lengths) in front of the handicap.

That end result of Fact To File finishing that far in front of the winner of a competitive handicap when carrying 23lb more than the winner of the handicap is clear, but for me the real takeaway was how much mid-race pace he showed.

Can a horse with that much pace over mid-range trips stretch his stamina to an extended three miles at Cheltenham? Will he consent to settle at what is likely to be a much steadier pace than he encountered at Leopardstown given he looked keen to go even faster that day? These are pertinent questions for him to answer that make his current price look unappealing.

14:10 - Brown Advisory Novices' Chase - Back Monty's Star @ 5/16.00

So, which one do I prefer? I have very little against Stay Away Fay who is well equipped to capitalise on any stamina worries with regard to Fact To File, but the one I prefer at the prices is the Henry De Bromhead-trained Monty's Star.

This is a long-term love affair as to me Monty's Star has looked an ideal candidate for this race for over a year. He is particularly big, huge in fact, and has always looked the type to make into a better staying chaser than anything else.

I have been delighted with his jumping technique in his two starts over fences to date, with him showing great athleticism for a horse of his size and essentially making jumping fences look very easy. His trainer felt that running him close to Cheltenham last year took the edge off him, so it was very much the plan to send him to this race off just two runs over fences.

Minella Indo was given a similar prep for this race by De Bromhead and was particularly unlucky not to win.

Monty's Star might well be able to get revenge not just for Minella Indo, but also for his half-brother Monalee who finishing in the frame in the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle, the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase, the Ryanair Chase and the Gold Cup at this meeting, but could never win there.

As well as that, his other half-brother Firm Footings was a leading fancy for the Kim Muir this year only to be ruled out by a late setback. With family honour at stake, Monty's Star can spring an upset.

16:50 - Grand Annual - Back Harper's Brook @ 11/26.50

Elsewhere on the card, there are a couple of others that I am keen on. Those that have read my Five Best Bets of the Cheltenham Festival on this site will know that I am also keen on Harper's Brook in the Grand Annual Chase.

I put him up at a much bigger price in my analysis of the weights for the Cheltenham Festival handicaps in this space a fortnight ago and while his price has shortened, I'm still keen.

He is infamous for his tendency to pull himself up in front, but that quirk has hidden the true extent of his ability from public view. I believe his connections have now found his ideal trip and with this race being ideal for him in character, he might well silence his slaggers by going very close.

14:50 - Coral Cup - Back Brazil EW @ 16/117.00

Another one I like at a bigger price in the Coral Cup is the Padraig Roche-trained Brazil. The six-year-old ruined many a day when lowering the colours of Gaelic Warrior in the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle two years ago.

While he hasn't quite kicked on like that one has, he is on an appealing mark and has looked ready for the step up to this mid-range trip for some time. This is his second run since being gelded and it wouldn't surprise me at all if he ran a big race.

Now read Paul Nicholls' thoughts on his Day 2 runners here!

Racing... Only Bettor Day 2 Tips - watch here!