Cheltenham Festival Antepost Tips: Sam Turner has a 50/1 ante-post pick for the Stayers' Hurdle

• Lavelle hurdler could disrupt the 'fab four'

• Speculative Shantou punt might pay off

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Trials Day will deliver Festival clues and markets are already moving

Welcome back to the latest instalment of my Cheltenham Festival Focus and, with Cheltenham Trials day on the horizon, the ante-post markets are sure to be impacted by Saturday's events at Prestbury Park.

Even around the time of writing (Monday pm) horses like Theleme (Stayers' Hurdle) and Act Of Innocence (Turners Novices Hurdle) have collapsed in the ante-post lists on the back of forthcoming entries at the weekend. It appears likely that I've leaned towards the wrong target with the latter who was an ante-post pick for the Supreme at 25/126.00 on the back of his impressive November debut at Newbury for new connections.

The stable intel after Old Park Star won on his Cheltenham debut was that he was more likely to head to the Turners Novices Hurdle and his stablemate to the day one curtain raiser.

Unfortunately, there appears to have been a complete reversal in that thinking and it's hard to criticise the view after witnessing Old Park Star rout his rivals in the Rossington Main at Haydock on Saturday.

Those are the vagaries of ante-post betting I'm afraid, but I'm fascinated to see how Act Of Innocence fares in the finale on Saturday as the five-day declarations suggest that could be a terrific race. She is currently the 6/42.50 favourite to win again.

Another of our speculative ante-post picks, The Blue Room, could also line up in the finale and I managed to grab a word with Sean Bowen recently regarding the six-year-old's prospective Festival aim and he revealed connections would be leaning towards the Turners rather than the Albert Bartlett as the gelding doesn't lack gears.

Sean was extremely positive about the Order Of St George gelding so he remains one to keep onside this spring.

In this week's column, the Stayers' Hurdle comes into focus with a track specialist that looks worth supporting at huge odds.

Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle: 50/1 Ma Shantou could spring a surprise

Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle
Cheltenham Festival, Thursday March 12, 15:20

The market for this year's Stayers' Hurdle is completely dominated by horses owned either by Robcour or J P McManus with the last two winners, Teahupoo and Bob Olinger, representing the former and the green and gold looking like being carried by Honesty Policy and Impose Toi.

The latter is the Betfair Sportsbook's early warm favourite for Saturday's Cleeve Hurdle and is unbeaten this term since stepping upto three miles and progressing from handicap company through to a Grade 1 victory in the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot before Christmas.

In many respects, both Impose Toi and Honesty Policy are the new kids on the block with the last named still unexposed over hurdles having had just six starts over obstacles, the last of which came when he was a big eyecatcher in the Long Walk on his seasonal bow.

Teahupoo looked as good as ever at Leopardstown over Christmas, benefitting from a rich seam of form enjoyed by his handler to turn the tables in style on March's Festival conqueror Bob Olinger, but it is worth recalling as impressive as he was over the festive period, that he has also been beaten twice in this race.

His fellow Robcour intern is 4-4 around Presbury Park and unbeaten in three hurdles starts at the track so must surely have frame claims at the minimum once more, even if he is now 11-years-old and only Sire Du Berlais since Crimson Embers forty years ago has lifted this prize at that age.

The likes of Ballyburn (stamina), Iberico Lord and Wodhooh (other targets) and Kabral Du Mathan (trip) are all fairly easily bypassed from an ante-post perspective so I wondered if Ma Shantou could prove a fun bet at a whopping 50/151.00 to infiltrate the 'fab four' and make his mark in Graded company.

First the disclaimer.

This bet could be dead in the water should Ma Shantou fail to run a huge race in this Saturday's Cleeve Hurdle, while the link with Harry Cobden may also become redundant unless the seven-year-old can prove he can mix it with the McManus batallions, starting this weekend.

However, Ma Shantou has already improved a stone courtesy of two Cheltenham victories this term, one on the Old Course and the latest on the New, and he could develop into one of the better outsiders in the race with another prominent showing in the Cleeve.

Trainer Emma Lavelle was talking about the Pertemps Final following the gelding's early season victory in a qualifier when landing a substantial gamble, but that chat has switched to a tilt at the Stayers and the seven-year-old, who of course would be bidding to follow in the hoofprints of the stable's 2019 winner Paisley Park, fits a number of the stats synonymous with previous winners.

Ten of the last 12 winners have been between six and eight years of age, while the same number boasted at least three previous runs over 23 to 25 furlongs.

Of the last dozen winners, four ran in the Cleeve and 11 of the 12 had raced at least once at Cheltenham, a feat Honesty Policy has yet to do, whereas Ma Shantou among others have looked very comfortable at Prestbury Park.

There remain plenty of hoops for the selection to jump through to become a genuine contender for this Grade 1 prize, but that is factored into the odds and at 50/151.00 that looks a chance worth speculating on.

Eyes on two Ultima chances

There were a couple of other horses on the radar for possible handicap chase bets for the Festival, but trying to work out the target for Califet En Vol and One Big Bang is not straightforward.

Both are entered in the Timeform Novices' Handicap Chase this weekend and look as though they are being trained with a handicap at the Festival in mind, but whether that is over Saturday's trip in the novice event or the extended three miles of the Ultima is not clear at this stage.

Both would need to have had four starts over fences to qualify for the Ultima so the opener at Cheltenham should be illuminating if both run.

Next week's column will deal with all the fallout from Saturday and the impact on the relevant Festival races so until then, enjoy the sport and thanks for reading.

Sam Turner's Cheltenham 2026 Ante-post Ledger

Supreme Novices' Hurdle - Act Of Innocence win @ 25/126.00

Arkle Chase - Romeo Coolio @ 11/26.50

Champion Hurdle - Alexei each-way @ 33/134.00

National Hunt Novice Handicap Chase - Zertakt each-way @ 33/134.00

Brown Advisory Novices Chase - Wendigo each-way @ 20/121.00

Stayers' Hurdle - Ma Shantou each-way @ 50/151.00

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle - The Blue Room win @ 40/141.00

Gold Cup - Gaelic Warrior win @ 8/19.00

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