US PGA Championship 2026 Top 5 and Top 10 Tips: Back Bryson to shine

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Scottie Scheffler - defending champ looks ready to win again

Scheffler defends the title he won at Quail Hollow last year when racing clear of the field to take victory by five from Bryson DeChambeau, Harris English and Davis Riley. That's the highlight of a superb run in this event which shows five top eights in six appearances.

After capturing The American Express on his first start this year, it's pretty amazing that Scheffler hasn't won again. But after a dip, in relative terms, he's knocking hard on the door and the World No.1 enters the US PGA on the back of a trio of second-place finishes. The first of those came at the US Masters when he shot 65-68 on the weekend to come up just one shy.

This is his first start at Aronimink but a course that requires precision and control seems right up his street.

Last four events: 2-2-2-22
US PGA form: 1-8-2-MC-8-4
Aronimink form: -
Last 50 starts - Win: 28%, Top 5: 62%, Top 10: 80%

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Rory McIlroy - Masters winner likely to focus on majors

After securing a second Green Jacket last month and taking his tally of major wins to six, it's a question now of watching how McIlroy maintains his motivation. Will he perhaps fall into a pattern of steady form in regular events (i.e. last week's 19th at the Truist) but big shows in the majors?

The US PGA has always been a tournament he's enjoyed. Rory was tied third on his debut way back in 2009 and lifted the giant Wanamaker Trophy in both 2012 (by eight shots at Kiawah Island!) and 2014 (by one at Hazeltine). He's had eight top 10s overall in 17 appearances.

As for Aronimink, he teed it up there in the 2018 BMW Championship and finished fifth. Scoring was low that week and Rory's round scores included a 62 (R1) and a 63 (R3).

Last four events: 19-1-46-WD
US PGA form: 47-12-7-8-49-33-8-50-22-MC-17-1-8-1-64-3-3
Aronimink form: 5
Last 50 starts - Win: 16%, Top 5: 44%, Top 10: 50%

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Cameron Young - Players champion ready to take next step

Young held the lead in the final round of last month's US Masters before finishing in a tie for third. While disappointing, it added to his excellent record in the majors. The American was second on his Open Championship debut at St Andrews in 2022 and earlier that year he posted third in his first start at the US PGA. Young was also fourth in last year's US Open.

This year he's rocketed up to World No.3 after a series of superb displays. Prior to that top three at Augusta, Young showed great bottle down the stretch to win The Players Championship and earlier this month landed the Cadillac Championship at Doral.

While this is his first start at Aronimink, he does have some useful form in Pennsylvania: fourth in the 2025 US Open at Oakmont and seventh in last year's Truist Championship. Young, whose caddie is a local, also won the 2025 Wyndham Championship by six at Sedgefield. Like Aronimink, that's a Donald Ross design.

Last four events: 10-1-25-3
US PGA form: 47-63-MC-3
Aronimink form: -
Last 50 starts - Win: 6%, Top 5: 20%, Top 10: 36%

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Jon Rahm - Spaniard may have greater focus

Rahm could have been distracted at the US Masters but off-course matters look to have been resolved after he reached a resolution with the DP World Tour to pay his outstanding fines and be eligible for the 2027 Ryder Cup.

The other theory with Rahm is that playing on LIV has diluted his powers and a record of nothing better than seventh in the majors since he joined the breakaway tour gives that idea validity. A reminder that pre-LIV, the Spaniard had racked up two wins and five other top fives in majors from 2018 to 2023.

Either side of his modest 38th at Augusta last month, Rahm has won LIV Golf Hong Kong and LIV Golf Mexico City as well as finishing runner-up three times. Now can he step it up again when it really matters?

Last four events: 8-1-38-2
US PGA form: 8-MC-50-48-8-13-MC-4-58
Aronimink form: 24
Last 50 starts - Win: 8%, Top 5: 48%, Top 10: 82%

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Xander Schauffele - a top 10 machine in the majors

Schauffele has enjoyed a remarkable record in the majors since posting a fifth in his very first, the 2017 US Open. Going into the US Masters he'd pieced together 17 top 10s from 34 starts, the highlights a pair of wins in 2024 including this tournament at Valhalla.

A ninth at Augusta made it 18 top 10s from 35 to nudge his strike-rate over 50%. In other words, Schauffele should be odds-on in the Top 10 market at any major now. In reality he's 3.412/5 this week.

True, he's not had his very best stuff this year and was way down in 60th at the Truist last week but the Californian had posted seven straight top 25s before that and four of those were top 10s. Also note he was third in the 2018 BMW Championship at Aronimink.

Last four events: 60-12-9-4
US PGA form: 28-1-18-13-MC-10-16-35-MC
Aronimink form: 3
Last 50 starts - Win: 6%, Top 5: 24%, Top 10: 46%

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Ludvig Aberg - Swede in strong form

Runner-up on his Masters debut (his very first major start) and seventh at Augusta a year later in 2025, Aberg has made an immediate impact in majors. So it's somewhat bizarre to see that he's yet to even play a weekend at the US PGA.

The Swede missed the cut in both 2024 and 2025 and overall he's crashed out at halfway in four of his nine majors. The glass half full argument points to the fact that he's made the top 25 in each of the other five.

On current form, it looks far more likely that he gets in contention again rather than goes home after 36 holes. In his last six starts, Aberg has posted four top fives and an eighth while ranking 3rd, 8th and 6th for SG: Approach in the latest three.

Last four events: 8-4-21-5
US PGA form: MC-MC
Aronimink form: -
Last 50 starts - Win: 2%, Top 5: 22%, Top 10: 36%

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Bryson DeChambeau - tournament specialist looking to bounce back

After back-to-back LIV wins (Singapore and South Africa) in March, April was set to be a huge month for Bryson. Instead he messed up at the US Masters and missed the cut before pulling out of LIV Golf Mexico ahead of the final round due to a wrist issue.

However, normal service seemed to be resumed at LIV Golf Virginia last week when he fired 64-66 on the weekend to finish third.

DeChambeau played in the 2018 BMW Championship at Aronimink and shot a Saturday 64 on the way to 19th. In the US PGA he's been a huge force, finishing runner-up the last two years and fourth in both 2020 and 2023.

Last four events: 3-WD-MC-1
US PGA form: 2-2-4-38-4-MC-MC-33
Aronimink form: 19
Last 50 starts - Win: 12%, Top 5: 36%, Top 10: 56%

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Matt Fitzpatrick - in-form Englishman a threat

Perception can change very fast. A few weeks ago, the Englishman surged to World No.3 after following second place at The Players Championship with wins at the Valspar and the RBC Heritage.

Now, after a 52nd at the Truist Championship where his driver cracked on the eve of the tournament ("put one in, not a hundred percent comfortable with it") we're not even sure if he'll finish this week as Top Fitzpatrick. In fairness that's more of a nod to the way brother Alex has taken to the PGA Tour (ninth and fourth) since he and Matt won the Zurich Classic pairs event.

Matt has a fifth and an eighth in the last four editions of this event (2022 and 2025) so must have every chance of adding another here on the form he's shown over the last few months.

Last four events: 52-1-1-18
US PGA form: 8-MC-MC-5-23-MC-41-MC-MC-49
Aronimink form: -
Last 50 starts - Win: 8%, Top 5: 20%, Top 10: 30%

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Tommy Fleetwood - timing could be right

Each of the last four US PGA winners (and six of the last eight) had recorded a top five on their previous start. That bodes well for Fleetwood after his fifth place in last week's Truist Championship.

While not hitting the heights of late 2025 when he scooped the FedEx Cup jackpot after winning the Tour Championship (his first victory on American soil) the Englishman has still carved out five top 10s in nine starts on the PGA Tour this season.

He should have some decent memories of Aronimink too after shooting a pair of 62s on the way to eighth there in the 2018 BMW Championship. Birdies were flying that week and it'll be a harder test this time but even so.

Last four events: 5-23-52-33
US PGA form: 41-26-18-5-MC-29-48-35-61-MC-MC
Aronimink form: 8
Last 50 starts - Win: 4%, Top 5: 32%, Top 10: 42%

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Brooks Koepka - PGA Tour returnee eyes fourth win

The sight of Brooks Koepka holding aloft the Wanamaker trophy has become a familiar one. He won it at Bellerive in 2018, defended the title at Bethpage a year later and became a three-time US PGA champion at Oak Hill in 2023. That was his fifth major win.

The American returned to the PGA Tour from LIV earlier this year and has been bubbling under without quite having a breakout week. That's shown by five top 20s in his last seven starts but nothing better than ninth (March's Cognizant Classic).

The big thing holding him back is the putter. Koepka ranked 1st for SG: Tee To Green when 11th at last week's Myrtle Beach Classic but was a lowly 62nd for SG: Putting. However, the tricky, undulating Aronimink greens could act as a leveller this week so don't be surprised to see Koepka bang in contention again.

Last four events: 11-MC-12-MC
US PGA form: MC-26-1-55-2-29-1-1-13-4-5-15-70
Aronimink form: 19
Last 50 starts - Win: 6%, Top 5: 12%, Top 10: 24%

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Summary

Missing the cut at the US Masters would have dented Bryson DeChambeau's pride. He went there on the back of two wins and with a pair of top sixes in his previous two Augusta starts.

He'll want to restore it here and history says he'll do just that. Before this year's Masters, DeChambeau had missed the cut in majors three times since the start of 2023. Here's how he responded in his next one: fourth, fifth and 10th.

Add in his stellar record in this event - two seconds and two fourths in the last five editions - and I'll back him at 7.87/1 for a top five.

In American majors, when he's on, he's on. DeChambeau has eight top 10s in majors on US soil and seven of those were actually top fives. The other, a sixth.

In the Top 10 market, I'm tempted by Xander Schauffele but at a bigger price I'll take Brooks Koepka.

His cold putter puts me off backing him to win or even make the top five but top 10 seems very achievable.

Koepka has been hovering around 10th place for most of the season (9th, 11th, 12th, 13th) but in a major his elite ball-striking can nudge him up a few spots.

As a three-time winner, this is a special event for him and he can draw on that history this week to walk tall once more.

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Now read Dave Tindall's 10-year trends piece here

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