US PGA Championship 2026: Dave Tindall's 10-year trends

Dave Tindall's US PGA Trends - How it works...

Cam Young looked on course to give my Masters trends preview a 22/123.00 winner at Augusta last month after he moved two shots clear on Sunday.

Alas, it wasn't to be but the each-way punt worked out nicely as he took tied third place alongside Russell Henley, who had ranked tied sixth in the final trends points grid.

While the US Masters can bring year-on-year course form to the table, there are plenty of other categories in each major that can prove good pointers.

Scottie Scheffler won last year's US PGA and he ranked a clear second on the trends. Bryson DeChambeau had come out on top and he finished joint runner-up so that was a pleasing outcome.

Did anyone try the reverse forecast? That would have produced a hefty payout.

A teaser before you read on. It's not the same 1-2 this year.

Right, time to crack on and list the 10 categories involved for the 2026 US PGA at Aronimink.

The trends categories are: Age, Nationality, World Ranking, Winning Form, Current Form, US PGAs Played, Past US PGA Performance, Recent Major Form, Course Fit and Defending Champion.

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Age - Young players fare best

Let's use the opening category to remind ourselves of the points scoring system. The key is frequency and I'll award points based on how often each age group won across the last 10 editions of the US PGA. So as six 20-somethings won, anyone in their 20s this year is awarded 6pts. Here's the allocation.

In their 20s = 6pts
In their 30 = 3pts
In their 40s = 0pts
In their 50s = 1pt

Scheffler was 28 when lifting the giant Wanamaker trophy last year, backing up the trend that twenty-somethings have by far the best record in the event. Phil Mickelson, who was 50 in 2021, is the only player over 39 to win in the last 10 years.

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Nationality - Home players have dominated

This has been an excellent tournament for American players and Scheffler's win last year made it a decade of dominance. Aussie Jason Day in 2015 was the last overseas winner but since then it's been home players all the way.

Is it because your typical PGA course is like many of the venues American players grew up on. Do overseas players prize this major a little less?

American = 10pts
European/Rest of World = 0pts

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World Ranking - A tournament for the elite

Scheffler was ranked World No.1 ahead of his US PGA triumph last year and that again showed how this is an event won by elite performer.

Mickelson was down at 116th when scoring his unlikely win five years ago but seven of the last 10 US PGA champions were ranked in the world's top 15.

As is the norm now with these previews, I'll use the Datagolf rankings which have used LIV results for a longer period than the official OWGR so are still are a fairer reflection of class and ability.

Ranked 1-20 in Datagolf rankings = 7pts
Ranked 21 or higher = 3pts

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Winning Form - Trophies give confidence

Helped by its previous August date, this used to be an excellent event for players who had already posted a win that same year. But it's still a stat worth respecting in the new slot.

Scottie Scheffler had scored a runaway victory at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson ahead of his 2025 US PGA win.

In doing so, he became the sixth US PGA winner in the last 10 years to have already banked some silverware in the season of their triumph. Three others, including Xander Schauffele in 2024, had posted at least a top four.

Won this season = 6pts
Best of 2nd to 4th this season = 3pts
Top 20 this season = 1pt

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Current Form - Top 5 finish last time a growing trend

Mickelson came in showing no form in 2021 but no less than six of the last 10 champions were in excellent form and had recorded a top five in their previous start. That includes each of the last four.

Scheffler was runner-up at the Cadillac Championship on his final tune-up for this year's US PGA so he's guaranteed six points in this category as he's not playing this week's Truist Championship.

Obviously, many of the leading contenders are teeing it up in the Truist - read my three each-way tips here - so their points can't be determined yet. As it happens it doesn't affect who comes out top of the final standings but I'll revisit the tallies after the Trust finishes.

Top 5 on previous start = 6pts
Finished 6th to 20th on previous start = 2pts
Finished outside top 20 on previous start = 2pts

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US PGAs Played - 2-7 is the bracket to focus on

Collin Morikawa won on his US PGA debut in 2020, as did Keegan Bradley in 2011 although he's now fallen out of the study period (2016-2025). That's very different to the US Masters where no first-timer has won since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979 although it's still a rare feat to win the US PGA first time up.

Looking at history, there is definitely a sweet spot as seven of the last 10 US PGA winners had played in the event from two to seven times inclusive.

Scheffler was appearing in his sixth last year; Schauffele was playing his seventh when winning 12 months earlier.

Played from two to seven previous PGAs inclusive = 7pts
Played in under two or over seven previous PGAs = 3pts

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Past US PGA Performance - Look for event top 10

A strong previous performance in the event is clearly a very good pointer as eight of the last 10 winners had already posted a US PGA top 10.

Scheffler had US PGA form of 8-2-MC-8-4 but neither Russell Henley or Ludvig Aberg have managed a top 10 yet so are marked down.

Top 10 in a previous PGA = 8pts
No top 10 in a previous PGA = 2pts

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Recent Major Form - Top 10 in previous two

US PGA winners rarely come out of thin air. Often they've telegraphed their victory with a strong performance in a very recent Major.

The stats show that seven of the last 10 winners had posted a top 10 in one the previous two Majors - nowadays the US Masters and the previous summer's Open Championship.

Scheffler added to the list last year having finished fourth at the 2025 US Masters and tied seventh in the 2024 Open in his previous two majors.

Top 10 in one of previous two majors = 7pts
No top 10 in one of previous two majors = 3pts

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Course Fit - Big hitters preferred

Most US PGA courses suit the longer hitters and that's reflected in the fact that six of the last 10 US PGA winners ranked in the top 35 for Driving Distance in the season of their victory.

Aronimink is a par 70 measuring a hair under 7,400 yards so length will again be advantageous.

So let's head to the PGA Tour's Driving Distance stats and give big hitters more points. LIV have their own stats too so anyone on those who averages over 309.7 yards (good for top 35 on the PGA Tour) gets the highest allocation of six points. That's basically the top 15 players in the LIV DD charts.

Ranked 1-35 in DD on PGA Tour or 1-15 on LIV = 6pts
Ranked 31-100 in DD on PGA Tour or 16-40 on LIV = 3pts
Ranked 101 or higher in DD on PGA Tour or 41 or above on LIV = 1pt

As we're at a familiar course, I did also look at whether the last 10 winners had previous form on the venues where they triumphed.

This is relevant to Justin Rose (2010) and Keegan Bradley (2018), who have both won events at Aronimink

There wasn't much to go on really. Only four of the 10 winners had played before at the scene of their US PGA win. Their best previous finishes in different events at the same course were 7th, 70th, 36th and 70th.

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Defending Champion - Hard to go back-to-back

Rory McIlroy proved at Augusta that defending champions can win but it's very rare. He was just the fourth player to pull off that feat in the US Masters, joining Jack Nicklaus, Nick Faldo and Tiger Woods.

It's a similar story in the other majors and only Brooks Koepka in 2017 and 2018 has won this event two years in a row (before that it was Tiger in 2006 and 2007).

That suggests it will be hard for Scheffler to repeat. It's not easy to have everything go your way again against so many world-class rivals.

Defending champion = 1pt
Not the defending champion = 9pts

That's all 10 categories complete. So...

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The Top Points Scorers

The scores are in...

66 Cameron Young
64 Scottie Scheffler
63 Collin Morikawa
57 Sam Burns
56 Xander Schauffele
55 Bryson DeChambeau
54 Ben Griffin
52 Chris Gotterup, Kurt Kitayama
51 Gary Woodland

It's Cam Young again!

Last week's Cadillac Championship winner edges out Scheffler although the margin could get wider.

Scheffler has already got his points for a top five finish last time out but it remains to be seen where Young finishes in the Truist. If he does make the top five, his points tally would increase to 72.

Sam Burns is an interesting one. If he comes out on top at the Truist he'd get three extra points for posting a victory this season and six more for that win also representing a top five finish.

That would take Burns level with Young on 66 although his fellow American would still nudge ahead as he's guaranteed a minimum of two points wherever he finishes at the Truist (see above scoring system).

In short, Cam Young is your trends pick. He's currently 17.016/1 to back on the Exchange and 14/115.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook (six places paid now although there will be more available in tournament week).

Secondly, Sam Burns has to be worth a look on the Sportsbook at 50s given how high he scores.

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Now read all the rest of our golf previews and tips

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