US Open

US Open Tips: Our experts' best bets for this week's major at Pinehurst

  • Max Liu
  • 4:00 min read
Golfer Rory McIlroy at the US Open
Will Rory be in contention for the US Open title at Pinehurst?

The US Open 2024 starts at Pinehurst on Thursday and we reckon our experts have got all the best betting angles covered with their tips...

  • Can anyone stop Scheffler?

  • Hideki to hit the heights at 50/151.00

  • Rose heads first round leader tips at 100/1101.00

  • Outsiders to back up to 429/1430.00

  • Form stats, 10 year trends, player profiles and more

US Open 2024 Tips and Predictions

Superb Scheffler fancied to win again

Steve Rawlings: "It's nigh on impossible to make a case for opposing the world's best player at Pinehurst this week. He arrives on the back on an incredible run of form, all his stats are excellent, and he won both his two starts on the Florida Swing - at the Arnold Palmer and the Players Championship.

"Scheffler was priced up at about 5.9 when he won the US Masters in April and he was a 5.4 chance when holding off Collin Morikawa on Sunday at the Memorial Tournament so he's a bit shorter here, but justifiably so...

"I nearly backed Viktor Hovland at 23.0 on Friday but after his 77-75 over the weekend at the Memorial Tournament, I'm glad I didn't, although I'm kicking myself for not taking the 80.0 available about the 2022 winner, Matt Fitzpatrick.

"This place could well suit him nicely, but he hasn't been at his best this year and the 55.0 he now trades at looks short enough. I also like the chances of Hideki Matsuyama but after much deliberation I'm happy to go into the tournament with only the favourite, Scheffler, backed before the off.

"I fancy up with the pace will be the place to be at Pinehurst again so I shall be concentrating very hard on the early pacesetters in-running, and I'll be back tomorrow with the Find Me a 100 Winner column, as I attempt to emulate last year's achievement of finding the winner at a juicy price (Wyndham Clark was a selection at 120.0) but for now I'm happy to go with just Scheffler."

Each-Way Tips: Picks from 45/1 to 90/1

Dave Tindall: "One player I'm drawn to this week is Hideki Matsuyama. The Japanese, like Kaymer and Stewart before him, arrives at Pinehurst having already won a Major.

That was the 2021 Masters where he has eight top 20s. What's fuelled that stellar record? His short game: Matsuyama has been ranked in the top 10 for Scrambling six times in the last 10 Masters so chipping from short grass around the greens is a huge strength.

"While the Masters is the Major we most associate him with, Matsuyama has a sneakily-good US Open record too. He's made 10 of 11 cuts while second place at Erin Hills in 2017 and fourth at Brookline in 2022 form part of a US Open CV showing seven finishes of 26th or better. Matsuyama's second US Open was the 2014 edition here at Pinehurst where 35th was a decent effort.

"He's underwhelmed in the first two Majors of 2024 with 38th at Augusta and 35th in the US PGA. But that should only make him even more determined this week as he seeks to play the weekend in a Major for the 17th straight time.

"Matsuyama is lightly-raced having played just twice since the Masters and he was in great shape leading into Augusta with a brilliant win at the Genesis Invitational, 12th at the Arnold Palmer, sixth in The Players Championship and seventh in the Texas Open.

"We're never quite sure of his fitness but there was lots to like in his play at The Memorial last week where he produced one of the best Sunday rounds to leap 14 places to end the week in eighth."

Find Me a 100 Winner: Three chanced at Pinehurst between 129/1 and 439/1

Steve Rawlings: "The four-time PGA Tour winner, Russell Henley, is one of the 29 players in the field that played in the US Open ten years ago at this week's venue - the Donald Ross-designed Pinehurst. That was his fourth appearance in the event and although he made the weekend, his tied 60th is hardly a plus but there are still plenty of positives.

"The 35-year-old missed the cut at funky Chambers Bay the following year but since then he has a fine US Open record, with event numbers that read 27-25-13-MC-14. His missed the cut at Brookline two years ago and that was a disappointing effort but it's maybe an understandable one given he'd led through rounds one, two and three at Torry Pines the year before.

"A 76 on Sunday saw him slip to 13th in 2021 but he also led after round one at Shinnecock Hills in 2018 so we know he's more than capable around a US Open layout...

"All three Pinehurst winners had finished at least seventh in the Honda Classic (now called the Cognizant Classic), an event Henley won ten years ago, and he also has a fine record around another Donald Ross designed course.

"The world number 17 has twice looked like winning at Sedgefield Country Club (home of the Wyndham Championship), where his last four visits have yielded form figures reading 9-7-5-2, and he also finished 10th at another Ross layout - Detroit Golf Club - in 2022.

"Henley has already finished fourth three times this year, at the Sony Open in Hawaii, the Arnold Palmer in Florida and the Texas Open in April (all on Bermuda greens like Pinehurst) and his current form figures, reading 12-10-23-27 aren't too shabby."

Place order to lay 8 Us @ 10.0 & 12 Us @ 2.0

First-Round Leader Tips: Picks from 66/1 to 100/1

Dave Tindall: "Rickie Fowler, Russell Henley and Dustin Johnson have all topped the first-round standings in the US Open on two occasions since 2015. Coincidence? Or does the first one provide some positive memories to help fuel the second? That's open to debate but I'll note the trend and back Justin Rose to add to that record.

"Rose was the solo R1 leader in the 2019 US Open at Pebble Beach thanks to a 65 while he's also topped the 18-hole standings at the US Masters on no less than four occasions, the most recent in 2021.

"The Englishman has other good US Open starts too, finishing round one in second (2012), fifth (2007), sixth (2018) and seventh (2022). While he wasn't quick out of the blocks at Pinehurst in 2014, he did finish 12th that week so can score well at this course.

"I also like the news that Rose arrived on site on Sunday. In similar fashion, he got his prep in early at Merion in 2013 and went on to lift the trophy. He hasn't had many fast starts of late and shooting 80-73 at Memorial looks off-putting but let's recall that Rose finished sixth at the PGA Championship just two starts earlier.

"Given his history of low openers in majors, he's worth a play at a three-figure price (1/5 6 Places) from his 08.02 tee-time."

Top 5 and Top 10 Tips: Make it Morikawa

Dave Tindall: "We landed the Top 10 cash on Collin Morikawa in the US PGA and he's the one that jumps off the page again here.

"The case for another big week in the majors for the Californian looks extremely solid. He's in great form, loves majors and is playing a course that should suit him down to the ground.

"With two top fives in his last three US Opens (14th in the other) and recent form of 2-4-4, this time I'll go Top 5 at 4.8."

US Open 2024 player profiles, stats and more for bettors

10-year trends point to...

Dave Tindall: "Past US Open winners haven't come out of thin air; they've advertised their credentials with a strong performance in a recent Major. Well, that's usually the case although once again Mr Trends Buster, Wyndham Clark, ran cavalier over that stat 12 months ago. He'd played in six previous Majors and recorded four missed cuts, a 75th and a 76th!

"But winding back to 2022 and Matt Fitzpatrick had finished fifth (US PGA) and 14th (US Masters) in his previous two and that was far more typical. Overall, the numbers are very strong: eight of the last 10 US Open winners had posted a top 10 in at least one of their previous two Majors.

"Although having a strong run in a recent Major is seen as a big plus, is it an advantage to have won one already? History says not so here's one Clark actually helps with. His win last year meant seven of the last 10 US Open winners were Majorless going into the week. It actually applies to seven of the last eight..."

Profiles of the top 50 in the betting

Matt Cooper: "Rory McIlroy's US Open record: 10-MC-1-MC-41-23-9-MC-MC-MC-9-8-7-5-2

"After going so close last year, duelling with the eventual winner all Sunday, he said: "It is tough but, at the same time, when I do finally win this next major, it's going to be really, really sweet. I would go through 100 Sundays like this to get my hands on another major championship." In truth, the Northern Irishman's victory in 2011 was a real outlier because even the other two top 10s he recorded in his first 10 starts came courtesy of fast finishes. In remarkable contrast, he's now looking to finish top 10 for a sixth consecutive time.

"If you believe in progression, his results over the last five years have only one way to go (unless play-off defeat is the next step)."

Major form stats for this week's tournament in North Carolina

Andy Swales: "Ludvig Aberg 12/1: Words cannot describe the speed at which the young Swede has travelled up the World Ranking. Is currently No 6, having been outside the top 3,000 at the start of 2023. His major debut earlier this year yielded a runners-up slot at Augusta National. He is also prodigious off the tee: He's currently 3rd in the PGA Tour category Total Driving and he's 12th in the Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green standings."

Course details and current form stats

Andy Swales: "According to the Golf Course Superintendents Association of America (GCSAA), the fairway width for this year's event is a generous 35-45 yards in the anticipated landing areas. This is wider than the PGA Tour average of 30-35, while the average for US Open venues is a miserly 24. The narrowest fairways at last year's course in Los Angeles were 28 yards. But despite a wider-than-normal fairway, there is huge danger for any golfer who fails to land their ball on the short grass. Scrub and sand lie in wait just off the fairway.

"This week's US Open will be played on Champion ultradwarf Bermuda grass greens, after switching from Bentgrass following the tournament in 2014. The fairways are laid with 419 Bermuda, while the only water hazard on the course will not affect golfers of this level. At over 7,500 yards, Pinehurst No 2 will be one of the longer layouts on this season's PGA Tour schedule."

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