Golf Bets

US Open Find Me a 100 Winner Special: Three chanced at Pinehurst between 129/1 and 439/1

Golfer Russell Henley
Russell Henley - fancied to contend at Pinehurst

Having picked out last year's US Open winner, Wyndham Clark, at 119/1, Steve has three longshot picks for this year's renewal at Pinehurst

  • A trio of triple-figure priced picks at Pinehurst

  • Will we get back-to-back longshot US Open winners?

  • Read my US Open preview here

A week after our 130.0129/1 chance, Ryan Fox, was matched at odds-on to win the Canadian Open, last week's 160.0159/1 selection, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, finished fourth at the Memorial Tournament.

The South African was never quite close enough to trade short enough for us to make a profit but it's nice to have posted a couple of near misses as we head to the third major of the year - the 124th edition of the US Open.

Last year's renewal was won by 120.0119/1 selection, Wyndham Clark, so we're looking to go back-to-back, and he was the third triple-figure priced winner in 12 years.

Webb Simpson was a 100.099/1 shot before the off in 2012 and Gary Woodland went off ten points bigger at Pebble Beach four years ago. And this has been a decent major for longshots this century.

Geoff Ogilvy and Angel Cabrera won the 2006 and 2007 editions at triple-figure prices, as did the 2009 winner, Lucas Glover, and had 650.0649/1 chance, Rocco Mediate, got the better of Tiger Woods in extra-time at Torrey Pines 16 years ago, we'd have witnessed four huge outsiders in-a-row winning.

We've had three editions of the US Open at this week's venue, Pinehurst, and none of the three winners were strongly fancied.

Payne Stewart was a 50/151.00 chance when he beat Phil Mickelson by a stroke in 1999 and generally a 40/141.00 chance on the High Street, Martin Kaymer was a 50.049/1 shot on the exchange ten years ago but both were eclipsed by the 2005 Pinehurst winner, Michael Campbell, who was a 370.0369/1 shot on the Exchange.

I've got three longshots to trade this week and first up is 130.0129/1 chance, Russell Henley.

Russell Henley @ 130.0129/1

The four-time PGA Tour winner, Russell Henley, is one of the 29 players in the field that played in the US Open ten years ago at this week's venue - the Donald Ross-designed Pinehurst.

That was his fourth appearance in the event and although he made the weekend, his tied 60th is hardly a plus but there are still plenty of positives.

The 35-year-old missed the cut at funky Chambers Bay the following year but since then he has a fine US Open record, with event numbers that read 27-25-13-MC-14.

His missed the cut at Brookline two years ago and that was a disappointing effort but it's maybe an understandable one given he'd led through rounds one, two and three at Torry Pines the year before.

A 76 on Sunday saw him slip to 13th in 2021 but he also led after round one at Shinnecock Hills in 2018 so we know he's more than capable around a US Open layout.

As highlighted in the preview, the two most important facets of the game at previous renewals here have been scrambling and putting and Henley currently ranks 21st for Scrambling and 12th for Putting Average on the PGA Tour.

All three Pinehurst winners had finished at least seventh in the Honda Classic (now called the Cognizant Classic), an event Henley won ten years ago, and he also has a fine record around another Donald Ross designed course.

The world number 17 has twice looked like winning at Sedgefield Country Club (home of the Wyndham Championship), where his last four visits have yielded form figures reading 9-7-5-2, and he also finished 10th at another Ross layout - Detroit Golf Club - in 2022.

Henley has already finished fourth three times this year, at the Sony Open in Hawaii, the Arnold Palmer in Florida and the Texas Open in April (all on Bermuda greens like Pinehurst) and his current form figures, reading 12-10-23-27 aren't too shabby.

He's an excellent putter and three of his four victories were gained on Bermuda greens.

Place order to lay 8 Us @ 10.09/1 & 12 Us @ 2.01/1

Brian Harman @ 210.0209/1

There's been money for last year's Open Championship winner, Brian Harman, and I'm not at all surprised.

Harman wins the Open.jpg

The world number 12 is another fine putter and scrambling who particularly putts well on Bermuda and like Henley, he has some nice form around Sedgefield and Detroit (three top-tens across the two tracks).

He hasn't been at his best since finishing runner-up to Scottie Scheffler at the Players Championship but since missing the cut in the US Masters he's put up repectable form figures reading 12-47-26-24-33.

Harman's US Open record isn't spectacular, but he led with a round to go at the 2017 edition, before finishing second and he's started very nicely in each of the last two editions, sitting seventh and fifth after the opening rounds.

He won the Wells Fargo Championship in 2017 so he's winner in the state of North Carolina and now a major champion, he'll have much more belief if he starts nicely again this time around. He's overpriced at 200.0199/1.

Place order to lay 8 Us @ 10.09/1 & 12 Us @ 2.01/1

Rickie Fowler @ 440.0439/1

The in-form Austrian, Sepp Straka, was on the shortlist but he's been backed into a short enough looking 100.099/1 after another solid performance at Muirfield last week.

Ranking only 56th for Scrambling and 95th for Putting Average, Driving Accuracy is his main strength and that won't be a vital stat this week so he's reluctantly left out and he's not the only one.

The enigmatic Korean, Si Woo Kim, should love it here and if Fox was a better scrambler (currently ranks 166th), he'd be in the portfolio again at odds in excess of 200.0199/1 but for my third and final selection I'm going to plump for a huge outsider - the out of form American - Rickie Fowler.

With just one top-20 from 15 starts in 2024, Fowler is far from at his best and that's a monumental negative and the reason for his huge price but this is definitely somewhere that he could find a spark.

Back in 2014, Fowler finished second here behind Kaymer and inside the top-five at all four majors, so we know he likes the course and that makes sense.

He's a winner of both the Honda Classic and the Players Championship, events that all three Pinehurst winners have played well at, and he won the last of his six PGA Tour titles last year at the Rocket Mortgage Classic around the Ross designed Detroit Golf Club.

In addition to his second-place finish here ten years ago, Fowler was 10th in 2013, fifth in 2017, and he was tied for the lead through 54 holes at LA Country Club last year before eventually finishing fifth, so he already has a wealth of US Open form.

He's a terrific putter on Bermuda and a great scrambler on his day so if he can somehow find a spark from somewhere, he may just cause an almighty but very popular shock.

Place order to lay 8 Us @ 10.09/1 & 12 Us @ 2.01/1

Now read my US Open preview here

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter


Staked: 108.5 Us Returned: 44 Us P/L: -64.5 Us


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