US Open

US Open 2024 Each-Way Tips: Picks from 45/1 to 90/1

Japanese golfer Hideki Matsuyama
Hideki Matsuyama can challenge for a second Major

After more profits at The Memorial, Dave Tindall turns his attention to the third Major of the year with three each-way bets for Pinehurst No.2...

  • Dave's three picks last week finished 2nd, 5th and 8th

  • 50/151.00 Hideki Matsuyama is a strong US Open performer

  • 45/146.00 Matt Fitzpatrick looks a good fit for Pinehurst

  • 90/191.00 Sungjae Im is in fine form and loves North Carolina


The US Open returns to one of the classic venues in 2024, the Donald Ross-designed Pinehurst No.2 in North Carolina.

Those with good memories will recall Germany's Martin Kaymer scoring a dominant wire-to-wire win the last time it staged this event in 2014.

Kaymer ran away from the field with a pair of 65s and won by eight. His victory came just three starts after he'd captured The Players Championship - an early nod perhaps to the already highly obvious chances of current Sawgrass champion Scottie Scheffler.

Great golf courses often provide the stage for the game's greats to hoist the silverware although the three winners of the US Open at Pinehurst were world-ranked 28th, 80th and 13th. That's Kaymer, Michael Campbell (2004) and Payne Stewart (1999).

That said, Kaymer and Stewart were already Major winners at the time and the podium finishers in those tournaments weren't bad: Tiger Woods (twice), Phil Mickelson, Vijay Singh, Sergio Garcia and Rickie Fowler.

Kaymer ranked 1st for Scrambling when blitzing the field in 2014 and that highlights a key difference between Pinehurst No. 2 and a typical US Open course which has thick rough around the greens.

With its shaved surrounds - typical of Donald Ross courses - Kaymer was able to putt from off the turtleback greens and did so with aplomb, getting up and down 19 times out of 27.

The course held the US Women's Open a week later and the winner, Michelle Wie, also ranked 1st for Scrambling. Stewart was 3rd in that category in his 1999 triumph.

Creativity and being able to scramble from tightly-mown grass is definitely an asset this week so those who've showed off those skills at Augusta National where the around-the-green test is similar to get a tick.

Length over accuracy has been a feature of many recent US Opens but that isn't the case here.

Pinehurst No.2 features a plethora of sandy waste areas - think Shinnecock in 2018 - and loose drives could end up in plenty of trouble.

Strong driving is always a part of the US Open test but accuracy needs to be a big part of that this week. This is no bomb and gouge set-up.

Kaymer and Campbell were ranked 1st for All-Around when winning and Stewart 3rd so Pinehurst also demands strength across the board.


Back Hideki Matsuyama (8 Places) @ 50/151.00

First things first, I think Scheffler wins this week.

However, this is an each-way preview and with 8, 10 and 12 Place markets to go at, we have plenty of options.

Scheffler's case looks watertight but let's remember our Pinehurst history and note that Tiger finished second and third here while Mickelson was also a runner-up.

Given the test in front of him, one player I'm drawn to this week is Hideki Matsuyama.

The Japanese, like Kaymer and Stewart before him, arrives at Pinehurst having already won a Major.

That was the 2021 Masters where he has eight top 20s. What's fuelled that stellar record? His short game: Matsuyama has been ranked in the top 10 for Scrambling six times in the last 10 Masters so chipping from short grass around the greens is a huge strength.

While the Masters is the Major we most associate him with, Matsuyama has a sneakily-good US Open record too.

He's made 10 of 11 cuts while second place at Erin Hills in 2017 and fourth at Brookline in 2022 form part of a US Open CV showing seven finishes of 26th or better.

Matsuyama's second US Open was the 2014 edition here at Pinehurst where 35th was a decent effort.

He's underwhelmed in the first two Majors of 2024 with 38th at Augusta and 35th in the US PGA. But that should only make him even more determined this week as he seeks to play the weekend in a Major for the 17th straight time.

Matsuyama is lightly-raced having played just twice since the Masters and he was in great shape leading into Augusta with a brilliant win at the Genesis Invitational, 12th at the Arnold Palmer, sixth in The Players Championship and seventh in the Texas Open.

We're never quite sure of his fitness but there was lots to like in his play at The Memorial last week where he produced one of the best Sunday rounds to leap 14 places to end the week in eighth.

Matsuyama ranked 1st for Scrambling at The Memorial, getting up and down 26 times out of 32, and 18th for Driving Accuracy so those numbers have to bode well heading to Pinehurst.

The options are 50s 8 Places, 45s for 10 and 40s for 12.

Matsuyama's last eight top 10s in Majors were all tied seventh or better so we'll go eight places and take the highest price.


Back Matt Fizpatrick each-way (10 Places) @ 45/146.00

The last two Pinehurst winners were European Tour players: Kaymer and Campbell.

That may allude to the idea that this course isn't your average samey PGA Tour test.

So maybe it's a decent move to look at other players who cut their teeth on the European (now DP World) Tour.

The one I like for several reasons is Matt Fitzpatrick.

Like first pick Matsuyama and Pinehurst winners Kaymer and Stewart, he too is a Major winner having captured this tournament at Brookline in 2022.

The Englishman has done well in this event elsewhere with 12ths at both Shinneock (2018) and Pebble Beach (2019) along with 17th at Los Angeles Country Club last year.

And, although it seems too far back, Fitzpatrick did actually play in the 2014 US Open at Pinehurst. It was a memorable week too as he finished Low Amateur (48th).

Still a teenager, he was the only one of 11 amateurs to make the cut 10 years ago and concluded his week by shooting a 69.

Shinnecock has similar visuals to Pinehurst and this week's par 70 really does look a good fit for the 29-year-old given the need for straight driving and sharpness around the greens.

Fitzpatrick is 16th for Driving Accuracy and 9th for Total Driving (a measure of accuracy and length) this season while he's shown his prowess from tight greenside lies by finishing in the top five for Scrambling in two of the last three Masters.

Like Matsuyama he's also had a nice tune-up for Pinehurst via a strong finish at Muirfield Village last week.

Fitzpatrick's closing 69 which elevated him to tied fifth was the joint-low round of the day on Sunday. He ranked 10th Off The Tee at Memorial, fifth for SG: Putting and 6th for All-Around.

As for the grass, Fitzpatrick won last year's RBC Heritage on Bermuda while he was fifth on that surface in March's Players Championship before adding seventh on Champion Bermuda at the Texas Open.

Going further back and his two wins at the DP World Tour Championship in Dubai also came on Bermuda with sandy waste areas in the mix.

I also like Tommy Fleetwood this week but Fitzpatrick has a Major and another win on American soil compared to his compatriot's blank slate Stateside.

Fitzpatrick is also the bigger price and was fifth at Memorial to Fleetwood's 20th.


Back Sungjae Im each-way (10 Places) @ 90/191.00

First, some other mentions for players that I already have covered in other previews although would definitely consider for this one too.

In my ante-post US Open preview, written in December, I selected Russell Henley at 150/1151.00 and he's now 70s (12 Places) or as big as 90s (8 Places) so I'm happy with that. Less so about Louis Oosthuizen who hasn't even made it into the field!

As for the 10-year trends preview, the two picks were Tyrrell Hatton at 50/151.00 and Collin Morikawa at 18/119.00. Those prices are still there in the 8 Place market and, again, I really like their chances.

I may look to play that trio in side markets too as all fit the profile for Pinehurst.

Potential pick Billy Horschel was 200/1201.00 on Sunday night but is now 90/191.00 on Monday morning so I'll swerve him now.

To be honest, two top 10s in his 41 Majors suggests this might be a good thing to do.

Justin Rose, the 2013 US Open champion, has place chances but I can't see him winning another these days.

So, for my final pick, I'll go with someone a little under the radar in Sungjae Im.

The Korean has a second and an eighth to his name at Augusta, ranking fifth for Scrambling when runner-up in 2020.

He also had two top 20s in Majors last year although, admittedly, he's missed the cut in both this year.

But there are some good reasons to believe he could be a dangerman this week.

Im was really struggling for form coming out of the Masters but found something when 12th at Hilton Head.

He returned home to win on the Korean Tour and that really seems to have pumped him with confidence.

The 26-year-old took fourth place at Wells Fargo and after an early exit in the US PGA on a long, soggy Valhalla that didn't suit, he's finished ninth in the Charles Schwab Challenge and eighth at Memorial.

Im was third for All-Around at both Wells Fargo and Memorial while he ranked 5th for SG: Around The Green last week at Muirfield Village.

A US Open that points towards driving it straight rather than long suits him too. Im is 37th in Driving Accuracy this season.

But what I really like is his record here in North Carolina as he seems to absolutely love the place.

On the PGA Tour, Im has pegged it up nine times in the Tar Heel State, banking five top 10s as well as 14th and 24th.

That run includes second, sixth and ninth at Donald Ross's Sedgefield as well as a fourth and eighth in the last two Wells Fargo's at Quail Hollow.

He has a bunch of good form on Bermuda, including a win at the 2021 Honda Classic, while he was 4th for SG: Putting at Quail Hollow the last time he played on it.

Im was 6th for SGP at Memorial so the flatstick is working well.

Put together his current form, accuracy from the tee, hot short game and love of North Carolina and the dots start to join, revealing a very worthwhile bet.


Now read Dave's US Open 2024 10-year trends preview


Recommended bets

Dave's P/L for 2024

Staked: £630
Returned: £713.33
P/L: +£83.33

Previous:
2022/2023 P/L: -£191.44
2021/2022 P/L: -£315.35
2020/2021 P/L: +£1475.87
2019/2020 P/L: +£13.83
2018/2019 P/L: -£338.25
2017/2018 P/L: +£362.84
2016/2017 P/L: +£1179.89

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