Find Me a 100 Winner: Outsider picks for both tours

Golfer Wesley Bryan
Wes Bryan's form after injury has been promising
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Following a frustrating weekend for the column, Paul Krishnamurty has three more outsiders to back on the European and PGA Tours...

"Robin Sciot-Siegrist has twice looked on course to win, only to blow up in front."

Back Robin Sciot-Siegrist 0.5u each-way @ 150/1

When it rains, it pours! I do hope some readers took heed of my positive words for John Catlin last week at odds of [270.0]. I didn't have a penny on. Indeed the weekend was a pretty miserable experience on the golf front.

Tyrell Hatton played well for us, holding a chance going into Sunday, yet failed to hit the lay target. Steven Brown at least earned a top-ten, but it was only a share of seven. Besides Catlin, Jamie Donaldson was another Valderrama alternative to spend most of the week bang in contention.

Anyway, enough of the whining and onwards to a pair of tournaments which make plenty of appeal from an outsider punting perspective. For a more detailed overview of both events, check out Steve Rawlings' comprehensive previews.

Steve Rawlings preview of the Portugal Masters
Steve Rawlings preview of the Safeway Open

First to Portugal and an event where this column has gone very well in the past. In 2018, we made a profit from both the second and fourth. My shortlist here amounts to three - one of which is Matt Cooper's each-way tip Ashun Wu, whom he rightly notes played brilliantly after a terrible start at Valderrama.

French star appeals after excellent Sunday

Back Robin Sciot-Siegrist 0.5u each-way @ 150/1

Ideally, we like to provide variety on these pages so preference is instead for an outsider who also finished the weekend at that tough course on a high note. Robin Sciot-Siegrist closed with 69 - the second best round of the day - to make the top-20.

That wasn't this promising Frenchman's first result of note. In 11 starts at this level since graduating from the Challenge Tour (off the back of second place in that tour's Grand Final, he's shown plenty.

The 26 year-old has twice looked on course to win, only to blow up in front. He was third at the Victorian Open - another exposed course - after holding a clear halfway lead. He was also third just after the resumption at the Euram Bank Open, having held a clear lead through 54 holes.

He seems an aggressive type of player, capable of very low scoring as a 61 in that Austrian event demonstrates, and ranks an impressive 11th for strokes gained: putting on the tour during 2020. That is by far the most important stat to follow at this Dom Pedro layout.

Armitage overpriced on 2020 form

Back Marcus Armitage 1.5u @ [160.0]
Place order to lay 15u @ [12.0]

I can't see any legitimate reason for Marcus Armitage to be at such high odds after by far his best year to date, which has included solid results both before and since lockdown. Prior to last week's failure at Valderrama, he'd been seventh at the UK Championship - his fourth top-30 in five starts.

We can certainly forgive last week given the tough and very different nature of that challenge. Steve notes the great record of English players in this event and this Salford lad also has some positive memories of Portugal. Back in 2017, when surely a lesser player than today, he finished top-20 on debut at this course, and also tenth in the Open de Portugal.

Stick with comeback kid Bryan

Outsiders have won the last two Safeway Opens so this too could be fertile territory. Steve observes the critical importance of good scrambling around the small greens at Silverado, to which I'd add total driving. Any course where Brendan Steele has won twice must be a set-up that suits the best drivers.

Back Wesley Bryan 2u @ [170.0]
Place order to lay 20u @ [12.5]

Wesley Bryan didn't play badly when carrying our cash at the Wyndham. He finished 31st in a much deeper field on that occasion, with low rounds to start and finish. Indeed it reads well that he's made all four cuts since returning to the PGA Tour after nearly two years out with injury.

His stats during that short period also bode well for this test. He ranks 11th among these for scrambling and 15th for total driving since lockdown. Remember, Bryan looked very promising before the injury, reaching a peak of 37th in the world rankings. He's just the type to trade from big odds.

Four alternatives warrant a mention. Seamus Power [190.0] has outstanding driving and scrambling stats of late and is fancied to improve markedly on a poor course record. Chris Baker [290.0] ticked numerous stat boxes and I see that the esteemed Ben Coley at Sporting Life shortlisted him too.

One Californian outsider who has hinted at real progress is Joseph Bramlett [180.0]. And I certainly wouldn't deter anyone from backing Dave Tindall's each-way pick Scott Piercy, who is available at [120.0] on the exchange.

Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty


2020: -58 units
2019: +70.5 units

Paul Krishnamurty,

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