Find Me a 100 Winner: Outsider picks for Valderrama and East Lake

Golfer Tyrell Hatton
Tyrell Hatton is capable of getting amongst the FedEx leaders
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Paul Krishnamurty provides three bets at 99-1 or better, covering tournaments on both tours, and also discusses some value alternatives...

"Among these over the past six months, Brown ranks seventh for greens in regulation. He topped that stat here last year and its importance is obvious in these conditions."

Back Steven Brown 1u @ [170.0]
Place order to lay 10u @ [10.0]

Legitimately or not, Valderrama's turn on the Euro Tour schedule always fills me with greater confidence than usual. So many tournaments nowadays are dominated by bombers or simply boil down to who hits the best approach shots and hole putts. This is far more challenging, offering numerous angles for punters to exploit.

Valderrama presents a gruelling challenge

This famous old course - once home to the tour's flagship final event - is heavily tree-lined with small, fast, undulating greens. Power off the tee isn't a pre-requisite by any means but playing well in the wind usually is, and certainly will be this week.

As always, Steve Rawlings has previewed the event in comprehensive detail here. He concludes that while accuracy is essential to compete here, so too is scrambling. Given the forecast wind, and probability of missed greens, I concur. This will be tough and reward minimising mistakes.

Back Matthieu Pavon 2u @ [130.0]
Place order to lay 20u @ [10.0]

The problem with those characteristics is, of course, that they tend to favour the market leaders. There aren't too many outsiders with elite short games. This Frenchman, however, is pretty tasty around the greens, ranking 14th amongst these for scrambling this term.

Pavon to thrive in the wind again

Given that Valderrama is very much a track that requires knowing, Pavon's debut last year bodes very well - he was placed sixth going into the final day before falling to 23rd. However the clincher for me was the forecast. Almost all of Pavon's best efforts came in windy, sometimes very windy, conditions.

Back Steven Brown 1u @ [170.0]
Place order to lay 10u @ [10.0]

Back Steven Brown for a Top 10 Finish 1u @ [11.0]

Steven Brown has also shown promise here, finishing 15th last year on only his second attempt. Given the reliability of his long game recently, the Englishman is entitled to arrive with high hopes of adding to last season's Portugal Masters.

Among these over the past six months, Brown ranks seventh for greens in regulation. He topped that stat here last year and its importance is obvious in these conditions. During that period, he's also 22nd for driving accuracy and a respectable 33rd for scrambling. In good form, finishing fifth only three starts ago, he looks over-priced.

Wu rated best value among the rest

Several alternatives made my shortlist. Jamie Donaldson ticks every box - accurate, experienced, great scrambler, in form - and just falls within our range at [110.0]. John Catlin [270.0] and David Horsey [300.0] come into it on accuracy grounds, along with bits of recent form.

He has no form here but [400.0] about Matthew Southgate looks too high. Likewise I think Jeff Winther [340.0] will appreciate this challenge.

First reserve however is Ashun Wu at [270.0]. Matt Cooper makes an excellent case for backing him each-way, correctly noting how he is consistently under-rated by the market.

Don't dismiss huge-priced chasers at East Lake

Back Tyrell Hatton 1u @ [230.0]
Place order to lay 10u @ [15.0]

What to make of the Tour Championship becoming a handicap? Steve Rawlings is scathing and he isn't alone amongst the golf betting community. I see their point but, on the other hand, this might present a decent trading situation from the outside.

Sure, the top-three are incredibly strong. If one of them starts strongly, this may become very dull. However what if someone back in the pack shoots five or six under to start, and Dustin Johnson starts slowly? One could very quickly go from also-ran at huge odds to second or third place.

I quite like Steve's pick Joaquin Niemann as a trade at [190.0] and, considering he starts in a tie for 11th, [370.0] about Sebastian Munoz is eyecatching.

Preference, however, is for Hatton. He is perfectly capable of winning in this elite company. Certainly of getting off to a flyer and shortening up significantly in the betting.

There's plenty to like about his form too. Superb before lockdown, winning at Bay Hill. Excellent on return, registering consecutive top-fours and decent during the FedEx play-offs, with 25th and 16th in the last two. Try a back to lay.


Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty

Profit/Loss

2020: -55 units
2019: +70.5 units

Paul Krishnamurty,

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