Golf Tips: Our experts' best bets for this week's BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth

• Tips for this week's DP World Tour event from our golf experts

• The Punter takes a chance on Lawrence at 54/155.00

• Manserro can mount titke bid at 30/131.00

• Three outsiders to back at Wentworth up to 349/1350.00

BMW PGA Championship Tips and Predictions

The Punter: 54/1 Lawrence chanced at Wentworth

Steve Rawlings: "In the last 12 years we've seen winners rank first and 70^th for Driving Distance and as high as fourth and as low as 55^th for Driving Accuracy so I really don't think we can worry about the driving metrics. Scrambling and GIR appear to be the two stats to concentrate on.

"Last year's winner, Ryan Fox, only ranked 38^th for Greens In Regulation but Victor Hovland, who ranked fourth for GIR, and Tommy Fleetwood, who ranked first, finished fifth and sixth and the two previous winners, Billy Horschel and Shane Lowry, both topped the Greens In Regulation rankings. As many as 11 of the last 18 winners have ranked inside the top-four for GIR.

"Scrambling has been a key stat of late too. Fox ranked fifth last year, and Aaron Rai, who finished tied for second, ranked third. And the first three home two years ago ranking first, second and third.

"Horschel ranked third three years ago and a year earlier, Tyrrell Hatton won ranking first. Danny Willett only ranked eighth in 2019 but the best three scramblers all finished inside the top-seven, Francesco Molinari scrambled better than anyone else when winning here six years ago and the first five home in 2017 all ranked inside the top-eight for Scrambling...

"Thriston Lawrence was matched at just 6/1 early on Friday morning last week but he fell away after a bright start to round two. The South African signed the week off with a four-under-par 66 on Sunday to finish inside the top-30 and I'm happy to chance him here at a juicy price.

"Lawrence won the European Masters at Crans two years ago and he finished alongside last year's winner, Ryan Fox, at the K Club at last year's Irish Open so he has form at the correlating courses mentioned above and given his current wellbeing, he may well improve markedly on his two missed cuts here on his only two previous visits.

"Although disappointing last week, he's been in fabulous form of late, finishing fourth in the Open before winning in his homeland and finishing second in the British Masters."

Each-Way Tips: 30/1 Manassero set to go west

Matt Cooper: "Earlier this year I interviewed Italy's Matteo Manassero and ended it impressed by both the grace with which he had dealt with his long-term form and the hard work he had quietly put into his recovery. I also sensed he might win again soon and duly tipped him, unfortunately in the wrong event.

"But since landing that fifth title he has continued to churn out high quality golf. He now has 11 top 25 finishes for the season, seven of them top 10s including sixth at The Belfry and third last week at Royal County Down.

"He led this event after 36 and 54 holes in 2011, won it two years later and landed two top 30s at the course when he was struggling to do that anywhere. He loves this spot, is delighted to be back and he can mount a bid for the title."

Find Me a 100 Winner: Three longshots from 189/1 to 349/1

Steve Rawlings: "Although a big price, my first fancy, Connor Syme, is a very obvious pick. He's yet to win on the DP World Tour but has tasted victory on the Challenge Tour and he arrives in Surrey boasting current form, course form and correlating course form.

"The 29-yer-old finished fourth in the BMW International and 15^th in the Scottish Open in July and he looks like he's rounding back into form again if last week is anything to go by. Syme sat tied for seventh at the halfway stage of the Irish Open before a 78 on Saturday blew him off course but he rallied on Sunday, playing his last 11 holes in five-under-par to post 67 to finish tied for 17^th.

"Syme finished third in the European Masters 12 months ago and seventh in the Irish Open last year at the K Club, so he has form at the two tracks that correlate best with Wentworth, which may explain why he sat second here last year with a round to go before a 74 on Sunday saw him fall to 10^th."

Place order to lay 8 Us @ 10.0 & 12 Us @ 2.0

First Round Leader Tips: Picks from 55/1 to 90/1

Matt Cooper: "Back when Wentworth hosted this championship in May, followed by the World Match Play in October, there was a sense that golfers who were playing the latter having overachieved for the year received something of a boost to morale, self-respect and confidence that was reflected in their performance.

"Steve Elkington got to the final the year he won his only major, Mark O'Meara won the year he claimed his two majors, Ian Woosnam won the year he would have felt he should have won the Open but for a caddie error, Ben Curtis got to the semis in the year he lifted the Claret Jug and Michael Campbell won the year of his only major triumph.

"I broached this subject with Campbell once and he believed there was something in it (although he added reading a newspaper article that utterly dismissed his chances undoubtedly contributed to his triumph).

"Whatever, it makes me wonder if Frenchman Matthieu Pavon might not experience such a fillip this week. True, he's played the Scottish Open, Open and Olympics since his high points, but this could easily be a week when he gets more pats on the back and has the chance to soak in what he has achieved in the last 12 months. It's that type of week.

"This time last year he missed the cut, felt low and sacked his long term caddie. Within weeks he was a first-time DP World Tour winner, within months a PGA Tour winner, in the spring he finished T12th in the Masters and in June he contended at the US Open.

"I wrote in the each way preview that I was tempted by his chances and the first round leader market looks like the way to go. His course record suggests he will struggle to maintain a challenge but he carded a closing 65 in 2022 so he can go low. He was also second after round one of the recent St Jude Championship."

Course and current form stats

Andy Swales: "Wentworth's West Course is possibly Britain's most famous non-links layout, and has been the tournament's permanent home since 1984. It was designed by Harry Colt and opened in 1926.

"Since then it has undergone a number of renovations with Ernie Els carrying out a series of upgrades. The most recent of these was completed in 2016, when all 18 putting surfaces were dug up and re-seeded with a new creeping bent grass.

"Four greens were completely re-built, with another five partially re-constructed. West Course putting surfaces became the first in England to benefit from SubAir technology. This controls moisture levels regardless of weather conditions and helps to keep the greens firm and fast, while improving drainage.

"Water hazards should only be a concern on a couple of holes, although the tight tree-lined fairways remain a good test of accuracy, especially from the tee. Good course management is vital on a layout that possesses a handful of tricky dog-legs...

"Three pros who have well-established strong course histories, and are in good form too, are Rory McIlroy 5/1, Billy Horschel 19/1 and Shane Lowry 16/1. McIlroy, whose season continues to frustrate him, won here back in 2014, since when there has been a brace of runner-up finishes. He was also second at Royal County Down last weekend."

Get the latest from both tournaments from the Punter's in-play golf betting blog