BMW PGA Championship Each-Way Tips: 30/1 Manassero set to go west

• Former winner Matteo Manassero is in great form

• England Aaron Rai can build on last year's performance

• Frenchman Victor Perez like a Harry Colt design

The BMW PGA Championship on the West Course at Wentworth is a tournament and a test that has typically rewarded a dip into the course record book because winners tend to drop hints - and often quite big ones.

Many, for example, will have already logged a top 10 at the course, others will have been in-contention after 54 holes. Almost all, therefore, will have had experience of starting Sunday, or ending it, with some sense that victory was possible.

Not everyone, however. Back in 2004 Angel Cabrera was the archetypal Wentworth winner in waiting and then the unlikely Scott Drummond gubbed him with a startling final round.

There was more of the same last year when Ryan Fox, a significantly more accomplished performer than Drummond but one who had just one top 40 (and that was T20th) in six previous tournament starts, enjoyed a Sunday for the ages.

For much of the final round it appeared as if course experience would once again rule the roost as Jon Rahm and Tyrrell Hatton tussled for the title. Then Fox sent feathers flying.

Initially he did so in chaotic, self-damaging fashion by losing a ball on the third and scratching a triple bogey-seven on his card.

"A shot out of nowhere," he recalled at this year's tournament media day. "It's still in someone's backyard probably. At that point, I'm thinking I'm out of the tournament completely and I'm stood on the fourth tee which, needing a draw, is not a very comfortable tee shot for me. In fact, that's why I never felt it was a course for me. I like to hit a fade and a lot of Wentworth tee shots call for a draw."

Fox made a par at four, settled for fighting for a top 10 and then: "I just got stupidly hot. It was probably the best nine holes of golf I'll play in my career and if it was I'm okay with that."

He played that back nine in six-under. "It was almost an out-of-body experience," he said. "The calmest I've ever felt in that scenario ever, which I can't explain. I wish I could figure out a way to get in that space again.

"There's a video of me waiting for the trophy presentation in which I look at the leaderboard and basically went, 'Holy sh-t, these are the guys I've beaten down the stretch?!' If I had thought about that at the time, I don't think it ever would have happened."

Oddly that tallies exactly with Drummond's memories. Twenty years ago his caddie put a fiver on him at enormous odds (something he wouldn't be able to do now) and told his player about the wager.

Drummond later admitted, slightly bashfully, that he spent the back nine on Sunday thinking only of winning the bet and not landing a career-defining victory, for a life-changing amount of money, up against an elite field. "If I'd thought about that," he said, "I'd probably not have won."

Winning is a curious business and hopefully this trio might add to the peculiarity.

Main Bet: Matteo Manassero 1pt each-way @ 35/1

In January Rory McIlroy followed a second place in Dubai with victory and he might repeat that feat this week. But I'll happily not back him to do it. Shane Lowry looks a little spent at the moment and Tommy Fleetwood short despite equalling his championship best performance 12 months ago.

Earlier this year I interviewed Italy's Matteo Manassero and ended it impressed by both the grace with which he had dealt with his long-term form and the hard work he had quietly put into his recovery.

I also sensed he might win again soon and duly tipped him, unfortunately in the wrong event.

But since landing that fifth title he has continued to churn out high quality golf. He now has 11 top 25 finishes for the season, seven of them top 10s including sixth at The Belfry and third last week at Royal County Down.

He led this event after 36 and 54 holes in 2011, won it two years later and landed two top 30s at the course when he was struggling to do that anywhere.

He loves this spot, is delighted to be back and he can mount a bid for the title.

Next Best: Aaron Rai 1pt each-way @ 19/1

There's a link between Scott Drummond and Aaron Rai: both played amateur county golf for Shropshire.

More importantly, Rai is another Englishman with good memories of visits to Wentworth as a kid - he used to follow the players around and, when he started to show real promise as a player himself, his dad treated him to a club fitting there.

His first win on the Challenge Tour was among the trees in Kenya, his first DP World Tour win among the trees in Hong Kong and his first PGA Tour win (last month) was among the trees at Sedgefield.

In addition, he has form among Wentworth's trees: T14th in 2021 and second last year. (He also carded a third round 65 when T14th at the Harry Colt designed Hamilton in June's Canadian Open.)

Final Bet: Victor Perez 1pt each-way @ 35/1

Is Frenchman Matthieu Pavon over-priced? This is a man who has won either side of the Atlantic in the last 12 months, added a top 15 at Augusta National, a top five in the US Open and he ranked 15th in the field for raw score in the PGA Tour's elite gathering at East Lake last time out.

Ultimately, I'm not entirely convinced that his ninth place in the 2022 54-hole event is enough evidence of his course potential so his compatriot Victor Perez gets the nod instead.

He was second on his course debut in 2020 and, in all, eight of his 13 laps of the course have reaped scores in the 60s. He was also third at Colt's Hamilton in June closing with a pair of 64s.

When last seen in Europe he was racing to fourth in the Olympics and three of his last five DP World Tour starts have earned him top 10s.

Having difficulty working out the place returns? Fret no more - you can easily work out your returns with our new each way calculator.

Now read Steve Rawlings on the BMW PGA Championship