BMW PGA Championship: 54/1 Lawrence chanced at Wentworth

• Scrambling and GIR the stats to concentrate on

• Check out the three correlating courses

• Expect late drama on Sunday in Surrey

• South African talent is Steve's early Wentworth bet

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Tournament History

Originally known as the British PGA Championship and first staged in 1955, the BMW PGA Championship has been the DP World Tour's flagship event since its inception in 1972.

The tournament used to be staged in May but when the US PGA Championship moved to May in 2019, the DP World Tour made the sensible decision to move the BMW PGA to an autumnal slot and it worked. The quality of the field improved immediately.

Following the Dubai Desert Classic in January and the Scottish Open in July, the BMW PGA Championship is the third of five Rolex Series events to be staged this year, with the last two - the ABU Dhabi Championship and the DP World Tour Championship - being staged in two months' time.

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Venue

Wentworth (West Course), Surrey, England.

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Course Details

Par 72 - 7,267 yards
Stroke Index in 2023 - 71.37

Designed by Harry Colt and opened in 1926, the West Course has undergone a series of alterations in recent years, under the supervision of Ernie Els.

All the greens were remodelled in 2009/10 and the par 5 finishing hole was radically changed. At the mercy of modern equipment, the old 18th was an almost given birdie and a great eagle chance but now, with a large stream snaking its way in front of the green, it's a stunning risk/reward finishing hole.

Wentworth is a tight, fairly flat, tree-lined heathland course with tricky-to-read greens that were all changed before the 2017 renewal. The bentgrass/poa unua blend was replaced with pure bentgrass to get a truer and faster roll and a brand-new sub-air system was installed throughout the course to help keep the greens fast and dry.

In addition to the changes made to the greens, the bunkering throughout the course was changed to try and restore the course closer to its original Harry Colt ethos. It was felt that previous reworks had produced bunkering that was just too deep and not in keeping with the original design philosophy.

Wentworth used to stage the now defunct Volvo World Match Play at this time of year so high-class autumnal golf at Surrey's finest is nothing new.

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Weather Forecast

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TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 8:30 on Thursday.

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Last Eight Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

2023 - Ryan Fox -18 65.064/1
2022 - Shane Lowry -17 (54-holes) 19.018/1
2021 - Billy Horschel -19 36.035/1
2020 - Tyrrell Hatton -19 22.021/1
2019 - Danny Willett -20 80.079/1
2018 - Francesco Molinari -17 22.021/1
2017 - Alex Noren -11 22.021/1
2016 - Chris Wood -9 70.069/1

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What Will it Take to Win the BMW PGA Championship?

In the last 12 years we've seen winners rank first and 70^th for Driving Distance and as high as fourth and as low as 55^th for Driving Accuracy so I really don't think we can worry about the driving metrics.

Scrambling and GIR appear to be the two stats to concentrate on.

Last year's winner, Ryan Fox, only ranked 38^th for Greens In Regulation but Victor Hovland, who ranked fourth for GIR, and Tommy Fleetwood, who ranked first, finished fifth and sixth and the two previous winners, Billy Horschel and Shane Lowry, both topped the Greens In Regulation rankings. As many as 11 of the last 18 winners have ranked inside the top-four for GIR.

Scrambling has been a key stat of late too. Fox ranked fifth last year, and Aaron Rai, who finished tied for second, ranked third. And the first three home two years ago ranking first, second and third.

Horschel ranked third three years ago and a year earlier, Tyrrell Hatton won ranking first. Danny Willett only ranked eighth in 2019 but the best three scramblers all finished inside the top-seven, Francesco Molinari scrambled better than anyone else when winning here six years ago and the first five home in 2017 all ranked inside the top-eight for Scrambling.

Fox putted nicely last year, ranking sixth for Strokes Gained Putting and second for Putting Average, but you can most definitely win here without holing everything you look at.

Lowry ranked 19^th for SGP and 55^th for PA two years and Horschel only ranked 42^nd and 29^th in 2021. And prior to the changes to the greens, before the 2017 edition, several players took the title despite putting fairly poorly. Anders Hansen ranked just 46th for Putting Average when he won the second of his two titles in 2007 and Simon Khan putted even worse in 2010, when he ranked 55^th.

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Course Form Counts at Wentworth

In six previous visits to Wentworth, 20^th was the best finish Ryan Fox had mustered but he was an unusual winner. Most victors here have shown a liking to the venue...

Wentworth is a nuanced track and past course form counts for plenty. Lowry had finished inside the top-six places four times before he won here two years ago and he'd led the 2020 edition at halfway before finishing 13^th.

Horschel had finished fourth two years prior to his win on his only prior appearance and year after year we see the same faces in-the-mix. Most winners have previous form around Wentworth, even if it dates back a few years...

The 2020 winner, Tyrrell Hatton, had Wentworth figures reading 38-46-7-30-MC-MC (with the seventh place dating back to 2016), and the 2019 champ, Willett, had finished fifth here on debut nine years earlier and he'd finished third in 2016.

Having finished inside the top-nine places in four of his five previous visits, Francesco Molinari won here six years ago, a year after finishing second to Alex Noren, who finished third behind Molinari when defending, with the 2014 winner, Rory McIlroy, finishing second! And back in 2017, three of the top-five had finished at least eighth previously.

Luke Donald (back-to-back in 2011 and 2012) was the last multiple event winner, but multiple winners are fairly common. Peter Alliss, Colin Montgomerie, and Bernard Langer have all won the event three times (Monty did in consecutive years between 1998 and 2000) and Nick Faldo has won it four times.

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A Trio of Correlating Courses to Consider

It's impossible to ignore how many players have played well here and at Crans, the venue of the European Masters two weeks ago.

The likes of Nick Faldo, Seve Ballesteros, Colin Montgomerie, Luke Donald, Miguel Angel Jimenez, Danny Willett, and Alex Noren have all won both events at least once and there are numerous examples of players winning one and finishing second in the other or finishing second in both. That list includes Rory, Francesco Molinari, Lee Westwood, Ernie Els, and Trevor Immelmann. And Crans specialist, Thomas Bjorn, really should have won this event back in 2015 when he led by five after three rounds.

In last year's edition, the 2023 European Open winner, Ludvig Aberg, and the 2019 champ, Sebastian Soderberg, were tied for the lead at halfway.

Last year's Irish Open at the K Club may prove to be a great pointer again too.

Fox had finished tied third alongside Wentworth specialist, Shane Lowry, before he won here and it's a leaderboard to look back on again.

In stark contrast to this year's links venue - Royal County Down- the K Club is a tree-lined parkland course like Wentworth and last year wasn't the first time that form at the two venues crossed over.

Prior to last year's Irish Open, which was won by Vincent Norrman, the previous six players to win at the K Club - Rory, Kennie Ferrie, Phillip Price, Michael Campbell, Darren Clarke, and Lee Westwood - all had at least a top four finish at Wentworth.

Norrman only finished 18^th on debut here last year but that was a fair effort given he'd won the week before.

And finally, another tree-lined track that correlates nicely is Sedgefield Country Club, that hosts the Wyndham Championship on the PGA Tour.

Wentworth winners, Luke Donald, Billy Horschel, and Byeong-Hun An, have all finished second in the Wyndham recently, LIV Golf rebels, Patrick Reed, Branden Grace, and Tyrrell Hatton, all have form at the two tracks and Tom Kim, who won the Wyndham in 2022 performed admirably on debut here last year until the weather turned on Sunday.

Adam Scott, who really should have won the Wyndham three years ago, also contended at Wentworth last year, finishing tied for seventh, and Arron Rai, who finished tied for second alongside Hatton 12 months ago, won the Wyndham last month.

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Is There an Identikit Winner?

It's been a real mixed bag, price wise. The last seven winners have all gone off at double-figure prices and four of the last seven were very well fancied but historically, it's been a cracking event for outsiders.

A second win for Denmark's Anders Hansen (2007) and victories for Simon Khan (2010) and Matteo Manassero (2013) were unexpected and very few saw Byeong-Hun An's victory coming nine years ago. And there was a four-year stretch at the turn of the century when the winners were almost impossible to predict. After Monty had won his three in-a-row, Andrew Oldcorn, Anders Hansen, Ignacio Garrido and Scott Drummond all left punters scratching their heads.

The English have a really good record in this event. A pair of Englishmen finished tied for second last year and with Luke Donald winning back-to-back in 2011 and 2012, seven different Englishman have won eight of the last 18 renewals.

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Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

2023 - Ryan Fox - tied fourth, trailing by three 16.015/1
2022 - Shane Lowry - tied sixth, trailing by two 11.010/1
2021 - Billy Horschel - tied third, trailing by two 7.87/1
2020 - Tyrrell Hatton - led by three 1.9620/21
2019 - Danny Willett - tied for the lead 7.06/1
2018 - Francesco Molinari - tied for the lead 3.259/4
2017 - Alex Noren T23 - trailing by seven 220.0219/1
2016 - Chris Wood T5 - trailing by three 16.5

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In-Play Tactics

As many as four of the last nine winners have been leading with a round to go but three of the four were tied for the lead and they were the least likely of the tied leaders to win through 54 holes.

Back in 2015, Byeong-Hun An was tied with Francesco Molinari, who was tied with Rory before the final round in 2018 and five years ago, Danny Willett entered the final round tied at the top with Jon Rahm.

Hatton was the favourite before round four - four years ago but the favourite before the final round has been beaten in nine of the last ten years and we've seen some quite remarkable off-the-pace winners here over the years...

For the majority of tournaments, I stress the importance of being up in the van throughout, getting a fast start and being up with the leaders, but not here.

I've gone as far back as 1990 and other than Hatton in 2020, who was tied for the lead, the only leader or co-leader after round one to go on to take the title is Luke Donald. He went wire-to-wire in 2011, before beating Lee Westwood in a play-off.

Paul Casey won doggedly after hitting the front at halfway in 2009, as did David Howell in 2006, and between 2000 and 2002, all three 36-hole winners went on to convert but the leaders are always vulnerable here and I'll definitely be looking closely at those off the pace with a round to go again.

Fox was only a 16.015/1 shot with a round to go last year but Alex Noren was matched at 220.0219/1 on Sunday morning seven years ago, as he sat outside the top-20 with a round to go, and that's as far off the lead as any winner has been at Wentworth through 54 holes since 1990 but he was the third winner in eight years to trail by seven strokes with a round to go!

Simon Khan sat tied for 13^th and seven back before his win in 2010 and Rory McIlroy trailed Thomas Bjorn by seven in 2014 (Bjorn was matched in-running at just 1.21/5).

Between 1990 and 2006, 12 of the 16 winners led or co-led with a round to go and Tony Johnstone, in 1992, was the only winner not to be inside the front three places through 54 holes. He sat tied for fifth and three off the lead, but it's been a completely different kettle of fish since David Howell's victory in 2006.

In addition to the three aforementioned winners from seven adrift, we've seen victories from three, four and five strokes back.

It's not going to happen every year but being patient in-running and waiting for Sunday to play the chasers at big prices has been a great way to play the tournament of late.

In addition to all those big off-the-pace winners, we've had a number of players come close to snatching an unlikely win and we nearly witnessed another huge comeback two years ago when Jon Rahm finished second, beaten by a stroke.

Having been a 300.0299/1 chance before the third and final round, Rahm was matched at 1000.0999/1 in-running as he played his first eight holes of round three in just one-under-par but after a birdie at the tough ninth, he flew home in 29, despite bogeying the 15^th, to post a ten-under-par 62.

In addition to Rahm, the runner-up, Rikard Karlberg, began the final day fully eight strokes adrift of the third-round leader, Scott Hend, in 2016.

Like Rahm, he too was matched at 1000.0999/1 in-running and like Rahm, he dropped a shot late on when he bogeyed the 16th hole. Both men lost by a stroke and both were matched at single-figure prices. Karlberg was matched at just 7.87/1 and Rahm hit a low of 5.24/1.

Unless we get a weather delay like we did in 2022, the BMW PGA Championship is over four rounds and four days, just like any other ordinary stroke play event on the DP World or PGA Tour, but it somehow feels like a longer tournament than most and the winning line feels like it's a long way off.

In the last ten years, we've seen five players trade at odds-on and lose before the fourth round has even begun and two of them went odds-on during round two!

Just like Bjorn in 2014 and Molinari in 2015, Jon Rahm was matched at odds-on during round three in 2019 (1.422/5) and Rory McIlroy hit the front as early as Friday morning in 2018, when he went as low as 1.548/15. And he was the second player in three years to go odds-on during round two and fail to get home! Danny Willet hit 1.855/6 on Friday in 2016.

Late drama is often the norm here. Hatton hit a low of just 1.292/7 during round four last year and two players traded at odds-on on Sunday in 2021 before losing. Kiradech Aphibarnrat was matched at 1.618/13 and Laurie Canter 1.511/2.

The change from May to September might, in the fullness of time, see a change to the trends as the course shouldn't firm up as much in autumn as it did in the spring but backing longshots from off the pace here through 54 holes isn't a strategy I'm willing to throw away just yet.

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Market Leaders

There's been money for the favourite, Rory McIlroy, and I'm not surprised.

The more I've reflected on Sunday's finale at Royal County Down, the more I think he was unfortunate.

He overhit his birdie putt on the 17^th, which led to a bogey five at just the wrong time, but he began the day with the lead, birdied the first two holes, and was unlucky to be caught late on by the most remarkable of finishes by Rasmus Hojgaard.

The Dane caught a fortunate break on at least four occasions on the back-nine and I can see Rory bouncing back in style this week.

With Wentworth form figures reading MC-5-48-24-MC-MC-1-MC-2-9-2-7, he clearly feels very comfortable here now and a second success around Surrey's finest is distinct possibility.

Tommy Fleetwood has course form figures reading 49-24-MC-6-69-MC-20-60-13-12-57-6 so he too enjoys the venue but the likable Englishman is far too unreliable in-contention to be backed at just 12/113.00 in a field this strong.

The 2022 winner, Shane Lowry, is the current third favourite but that was the last individual title he won, and he was a little disappointing last week, losing touch with the leaders on Saturday when shooting 74.

Adam Scott is in sparkling current form, having ticked over nicely since finishing second in the Scottish Open, and having not played here between 2006 and 2021, he's finished 14^th, 42^nd and seventh in each of the last three renewals but he's a tricky one to get over the line and I'm happy to swerve him at less than 20/121.00.

Matt Cooper makes a strong case for this year's Wyndham winner Aaron Rai, and the 2021 winner, Billy Horschel, is worthy of close consideration having played alongside Rai at Sedgefield in round four (finished seventh).

Horschel hasn't played since the Tour Championship three weeks ago but he signed that event off nicely with a five-under-par 66.

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My BMW PGA Championship selection

Thriston Lawrence was matched at just 6/17.00 early on Friday morning last week but he fell away after a bright start to round two.

The South African signed the week off with a four-under-par 66 on Sunday to finish inside the top-30 and I'm happy to chance him here at a juicy price.

Lawrence won the European Masters at Crans two years ago and he finished alongside last year's winner, Ryan Fox, at the K Club at last year's Irish Open so he has form at the correlating courses mentioned above and given his current wellbeing, he may well improve markedly on his two missed cuts here on his only two previous visits.

Although disappointing last week, he's been in fabulous form of late, finishing fourth in the Open before winning in his homeland and finishing second in the British Masters.

He's generally a 33/134.00 chance and no bigger than 40/141.00 on the High Street so I thought 55.054/1 was very fair about such a prolific player.

Lawrence has already won four DP World Tour titles in the last three years and this is somewhere that really should suit him.

In addition to Lawrence, I've got three longshot fancies for the Find Me a 100 Winner column which will be out later today.

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*You can follow me at @SteveThePunter

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