The Punter's De-brief: Heartbreak for home fans as Rasmus pips Rory

• Late stumble costs Rory dear again

• Wide-margin leader proves a value bet again

• BMW PGA Championship preview here

Rory McIlroy had been weak in the market before the Irish Open at Royal County Down last week, drifting from an opening show of 7.06/1 out to 9.28/1, but it soon became apparent that the drift was unfounded.

The world number three ended round one in a tie for fourth and he was trading at 3.613/5.

A pedestrian second round in the best of the week's weather on Friday morning saw him head into the weekend trailing by two and trading at 4.3100/30 but a two-under-par 69 on Saturday left punters pondering whether to side with the home favourite at odds-on.

Leading Matteo Manassero by a stroke and Robert MacIntyre, Rasmus Hojgaard, Jordan Smith and Erik Van Rooyen by three, Rory was trading at 1.910/11 with a round to go and it didn't take long for odds-on backers to feel comfortable with their lot.

Birdies at the first two holes saw Rory extend his lead to two over Manassero and by four over the remainder and when the Italian's challenge faltered with back-to-back bogeys at three and four, Rory looked comfortable.

Longshot puts in a charge

My 270.0269/1 Find Me a 100 Winner pick, Daniel Brown, put in a run, and he was matched at a low of 7.413/2, but he could only par his way in after a birdie at the 12^th and Rory looked far and away the most likely winner deep into the back-nine.

None of his closest challengers before round four - Manassero, MacIntyre, Smith, Van Rooyen or Hojgaard - were pulling up any trees and the Irishman was matched for plenty at long odds-on.

After playing his first eight holes in level par, which saw him trailing Rory by five, Hojgaard's day started to turn with a birdie at nine and a ridiculous chip-in birdie from the rough at 10 after a free drop someone's handbag but after another birdie at 12 and a dropped shot at 13, he didn't really look like causing the world number three any issues.

Rasmus Højgaard chips in to move within two shots of the lead!#AmgenIrishOpen pic.twitter.com/k6FM6Vxfi5

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) September 15, 2024

Having been a 55.054/1 shot before the off, the Dane hit 50.049/1 in round four but things really started to happen on the par three 14^th when he caught a big break off the tee.

Stil trailing Rory by three, Hojgaard's tee-shot landed in the rough to the right of the par three 14^th green but instead of getting stuck up on the bank, it bounced left and to within eight foot of the hole.

He popped the birdie putt in to get to within two and 20 minutes later the pair were tied at the top.

Rory bogeyed the 15^th hole after a missed green and a sloppy chip at the same time as Hojgaard birdied the short par four 16^th, following a quite brilliant bunker shot, and the Dane momentarily hit the front when he followed one great bunker shot with another at the 17^th.

Rasmus Højgaard!

He joins the lead in style.#AmgenIrishOpen pic.twitter.com/HS9Zd8sI3o

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) September 15, 2024

Rory drew back alongside Hojgaard with a birdie of his own at the short 16^th but just as Hojgaard was making a straightforward two-putt birdie four at the par five 18^th, following a brilliant approach shot from the rough, Rory blasted his birdie attempt at 17 nine feet past the hole.

He missed the return putt for par and having looked in complete control, and having been matched at a low of just 1.211/5, he now needed an eagle at the last just to tie!

To his credit, he gave himself a chance, playing his second shot to just outside 10 feet but the eagle putt slipped by and it was impossible not to feel sorry for Rory.

Hojgaard's finish was quite remarkable, he'd birdied four of the last five holes to hit the front, but it's far easier to do that when you're chasing and you have nothing to lose. And you catch numerous breaks.

Hojgaard has been in-contention a few times lately and he hasn't impressed. And he hadn't started brilliantly yesterday either.

Hojgaard rode a wave of momentum late in the day and he deserves plenty of credit, but poor Rory did very little wrong.

He'd missed a few makable putts on the front nine and he'd hit a couple of clumsy shots on the back nine but it was a tough watch with the expectant home crowd waiting to crown their home hero.

Kizzire cruises to third PGA Tour win

Over on the PGA Tour, pre-event 310.0309/1 chance, Patton Kizzire, entered the final round of the Procore Championship with a four-stroke lead and those that took the generous 1.910/11 available on Sunday morning had very little to worry about after the 38-year-old chipped in for eagle at the par five fifth.

Played to perfection from the solo leader pic.twitter.com/1GPyAmgnpM

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) September 15, 2024

David Lipsky, who hit a low of 3.953/1, had closed the gap to two with birdies at one and four but he never really got a look in after Kizzire's eagle at five and the 54-hole leaderboard ended up winning comfortably by five to claim his third PGA Tour title, more than six years after he'd won his second at the Sony Open.

Kizzire is the eighth four-stroke 54-hole leader in-a-row to go on to win on the PGA Tout and time after time, despite being odds-on, these wide-margin leaders represent value.

They now have a strike rate dating back to 1996 of 75% so odds of around 10/111.91 for Kizzire proved to be extremely generous.

Now read my BMW PGA Championship preview here

*You can follow me at @SteveThePunter