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45/146.00 Fitzpatrick backed at Pebble Beach
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18/119.00 Schauffele can shine in California again
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139/1140.00 means Yu must back Kevin
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Tips and Predictions
Fitzpatrick fancied at 45/1
Steve Rawlings: "The last two winners have gone off at 44.0 and 75.0 but it's unusual to see someone win at that sort of price. Historically, the winners have either been straight out of the top drawer or virtually impossible to spot!
"Daniel Berger was a well-fancied 16/1 shot in 2021 but two of the last eight winners have been matched at 1000.0 before the off and the 2020 winner, Nick Taylor, was also a huge longshot.
"Taking a chance on a wild outsider or two used to be the way to go but I'm not convinced we'll see many in-the-mix now that the tournament is a Signature Event.
"Rose was just the fifth overseas winner in the event's entire history so Americans have an incredibly strong record and course form stands up really well too...
"Matt Fitzpatrick romped to victory at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in October on the DP World Tour, just six months after he'd beaten Spieth in a playoff at the Harbour Town Links to claim the RBC Heritage title, so he's a renowned links specialist.
He missed the cut in this event on debut in 2019 and again last year but he was 12th in the 2019 US Open and sixth in this event in 2022, two years after finishing 60th on his only other course visit. His course form isn't anything to write home about, but his sixth placed finish is a big plus and he looks over-priced at 46.0."
Schauffele can continue excellent form in California
Dave Tindall: "Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler head the market at 15/2 and both could put a swift end to this run of shock winners.
And yet, this short course negates Rory's prowess with the driver while the emphasis on putting doesn't bode well for Scheffler. But I do like one fairly near the front of the betting and that's Xander Schauffele at 18/1.
"The Californian has started the season in excellent form, reeling off a trio of top 10s: tied 10th at The Sentry, tied third in The American Express and tied ninth at the Farmers Insurance.
"The latter two came in his home state and Schauffele has now finished tied 17th or better in 13 of his last 17 starts in California, including six of the last seven.
"That run features a tied third in the 2019 US Open at Pebble Beach. True, conditions were different in the summer but, on the plus side, all four rounds were played at Pebble, not the usual two of this event."
Course and current form stats
Andy Swales: "Among golf's elite pros, three players with strong Pebble Beach histories are Jordan Spieth 18/1, Patrick Cantlay 20/1 and Max Homa 20/1.
"At various moments in his career, Spieth has occupied all three podium positions at Pebble and, in his only start of 2024, finished third at Kapalua.
"Cantlay, who has made a slow start to the season, can take some heart from his most recent two visits to Pebble which have both yielded top-four finishes.
"Homa, meanwhile, has finished 7-14-10 in his last three trips to the Pro-Am and remains one of the most consistent golfers of the last six months.
"Further down the food chain are Keith Mitchell 80/1 and Beau Hossler 50/1 whose last two starts in this event have witnessed top-12 finishes (Mitchell: 4-12; Hossler: 11-3). They have each enjoyed one T10 already this year, with Hossler finishing tied-sixth at Torrey Pines over the weekend."
At 139/1 Yu is worth chancing at Pebble Beach
Steve Rawlings: "At only 25, Kevin Yu has a massive future and he's shown signs over the last fortnight that a breakthrough win may not be too far away, following a third at The American Express and top-six finish at the Farmers Insurance Open last week.
"After a top-three finish at the Bermuda Championship and a seventh-place finish in this event, following his graduation from the Korn Ferry Tour at the end of 2022, the former world number one amateur underwent surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee. An injury he picked up in the gym shortly after his excellent seventh here.
"That kept him out of action for more than four months and other than a top-six finish in the John Deere Classic, he was largely disappointing post injury in 2023.
"He began 2024 with a missed cut in the Sony Open but he's found his groove in the last fortnight, firing a 63 on Sunday at The American Express to finish third before bookending rounds of 74 and 73 with a 64 to start the week around the North Course at Torrey Pines and a five-under-par bogey-free around the tough South Course on Sunday."
Bahrain Championship Tips and Predictions
Pablo the pick at 69/1
Steve Rawlings: "Looking back to 2011, one of the two hardest holes on the course was the par four eighth, but it only averaged 4.16 so it's not a tough track by any means.
"The par five ninth was the easiest hole, averaging only 4.41 over the week, and that kicked off an easy stretch until the par four 15th, which like the eighth, averaged 4.16.
"If you're planning to bet in-running, it's worth bearing in mind that the last three holes ranked as the third, fifth and eighth toughest so it's not a simple finish...
"Pablo Larrazabal began the Ras Al Khaimah Championship early on Thursday morning at the tricky par four 10th hole and he began the week by finding water off the tee.
"That lead to a double-bogey, which was followed by another dropped shot at 11 and it would be totally understandable if his head dropped after that given expectations would have been sky high after his brilliant fourth-place finish in the Dubai Desert Classic.
"Most of what I wrote last week still stands. He remains extremely prolific, he's just turned 40, he's expecting his first child and he can quickly put last weeks missed cut behind him."
First-Round Leader Tips from 50/1 to 80/1
Dave Tindall: "Followers of Brandon Stone's career will have been pleased to see him win his DP World Tour card back at the end of 2023.
"This was a player once closing in on the world's top 50 when he added the prestigious 2018 Scottish Open title (a Rolex Series event) to two previous wins in his native South Africa.
"Clearly it went wrong after that but he talked at the back of end of 2023 about feeling rejuvenated again and it showed in Ras al Khaimah last week where he finished in the top four.
"Stone started out there with a 64 to lie second after the opening lap and he twice occupied a top two place after day one on the Challenge Tour last season."
Monty hint points to 28/1 Luiten
Matt Cooper: "It's been a long time since the Dutchman Joost Luiten last picked up a victory and, although his chipping can be rather frightening to watch, I can't believe he will never add to his tally of five.
"Could this week be the week? His last win came in the Middle East, at the 2018 Oman Open, so that's one tick. Form-wise he was solid in Dubai, finishing T14th at the Invitational and T21st in the Desert Classic.
"He's also been close to another victory in the last year with four top threes and another occasion when he had a 54-hole lead.
"Then there is that EGD/Monty link. He notched three top 25s at Maxx Royal. He was the 54-hole leader when second in the Irish Open at Carton House. And he won the 2016 KLM Open at The Dutch."
Form stats for this week's DP World Tour event
Andrew Swales: "The Royal is situated in the centre of Bahrain Island. Although the course is generally flat, the greens are undulating and large, while water comes into play on five holes, including each of the last four. There is also plenty of desert scrub to avoid...
"With no course history to analyse this week, much of the focus is on a golfer's current form. Last week's runner-up at Al Hamra, Rasmus Hojgaard 9/1, is back on the starting line in the Middle East. Rasmus has been incredibly consistent since last September's French Open and is likely to contend again.
"Elsewhere, Yannick Paul 18/1 has posted a brace of top-10s from three starts this year, while Japan's Keita Nakajima 20/1 has travelled under the radar a little. The 23-year-old is a former world No 1 amateur and has already won four times in his home country.
"He tied fourth at Al Hamra on Sunday and his record on the Japan Tour, since the end of July last year, has been quite exceptional and includes a couple of wins."