AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2024 Each-way Tips: Picks from 18/1 to 50/1

• 18/119.00 Xander Schauffele has started 2024 in fine form

• 50/151.00 Beau Hossler's SG stats look encouraging

• 50/151.00 Byeong Hun An is in great form

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Chris Kirk, Grayson Murray, Nick Dunlap and Matthieu Pavon sound like responses when having four clicks of a random golfer generator.

Instead they're the highly unlikely quartet of winners on the PGA Tour this season.

Pavon capturing an elite event such as the Farmers Insurance Open has claims to be the most eye-popping of the lot even though the Frenchman had been a winner on the DP World Tour near the end of 2023 and had posted a promising tied seventh at the Sony Open.

The good news for frustrated punters is that the chances of a fifth straight upset are vastly reduced at this week's AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

That's not because this event doesn't throw up shocks (remember Ted Potter Jr in 2018 anyone?); far from it.

It's due to there being very few genuine outsiders playing this week as this staple of the early-season PGA Tour schedule has been given 'Signature Series' status and a field reduced to just 80.

And while there's a minor temptation to follow the contrary angle and back the last few in the betting - Peter Malnati, Lee Hodges and Davis Riley - there's every chance this one goes to a more obvious name.

As well as the change in field size, there's a different format too. In the past, each player had one lap of Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill and Monterey Peninsula before those making the cut returned to Pebble for the closing round.

This year there is no cut and, identical to last week, three rounds are played at the host course. That means the 80 players have one go each at Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill with their amateur partners before Pebble stages both weekend rounds just for the pros.

Form on the iconic 6,972-yard Pebble Beach layout therefore counts for more given that the par 72 hosts 75% of the action rather than 50.

Stats-wise, only Pebble has been recorded in the past but at least we now get the most relevant numbers rather than possibly skewed data derived from the redundant Monterey Peninsula course.

Looking at recent history, the last four winners of this event ranked in the top 10 for Strokes Gained: Putting (in their two rounds at Pebble at least) while four of the last five champions were in the top five for SG: Approach.

A couple of other things to note: Pebble's greens are some of the smallest on tour, bring an umbrella (more on that below) and due to the field being just 80 players, the each-way terms are 1/5 first seven this week.

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Back Xander Schauffele @ 18/119.00

Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler head the market at 15/28.50 and both could put a swift end to this run of shock winners.

And yet, this short course negates Rory's prowess with the driver while the emphasis on putting doesn't bode well for Scheffler.

But I do like one fairly near the front of the betting and that's Xander Schauffele at 18/119.00.

The Californian has started the season in excellent form, reeling off a trio of top 10s: tied 10th at The Sentry, tied third in The American Express and tied ninth at the Farmers Insurance.

The latter two came in his home state and Schauffele has now finished tied 17th or better in 13 of his last 17 starts in California, including six of the last seven.

That run features a tied third in the 2019 US Open at Pebble Beach. True, conditions were different in the summer but, on the plus side, all four rounds were played at Pebble, not the usual two of this event.

"The game overall feels pretty good, I feel healthy, and just ready to get the year going," he said at The American Express and ranking 1st for SG: Tee To Green at Torrey Pines last week backs that up.

It's hard to see him not challenging this week and if the putter is good - he was 4th for SGP at La Quinta a fortnight ago; not so good at Torrey - then Schauffele can get a win on the board.

After three top 10s to start his West Coast Swing, he's certainly tipped us off that a victory looks imminent.

And I like his closing quotes at the Farmers which bridge last week and this. "I hit it really nice. I think I definitely hit it well enough to win the tournament.

"I consider myself a good putter, but boy, was it rough this week for me. Maybe good mental prep for next week, with it being wet up at Pebble I imagine the greens will be bad, just mushy and poa annua-y so get in the right mind-frame for next week putting."

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Back Beau Hossler @ 50/151.00

I'd have liked a bit of a bigger price on Beau Hossler but I'll still make him a pick at 50s.

The American had an excellent week at Torrey Pines, playing the last 20 holes at the South Course in 6-under to finish in a tie for sixth.

Including some good results the other side of the Christmas break, Hossler now has three top sevens (which all equate to each-way payouts) in his last five starts.

The other two were seventh at the Shriners in Las Vegas and runner-up at the ZOZO Championship in the PGA Tour's annual trip to Japan.

What I also like are the numbers behind his top six at Torrey Pines as he featured highly in the categories that blink at us when looking at Pebble Beach form.

Hossler ranked 11th for SG: Putting in the Farmers and 14th for SG: Approach. With Poa greens to putt on again, let's hope he rolls it as well.

Just as importantly, he boasts some strong recent memories at Pebble Beach after finishing third here in 2022 when tied for the 54-hole lead and 11th last year.

Two years ago he fired a 65 at Pebble on day three while another 65 at Pebble in 2018 gave him the first-round lead.

As a little aside, he made his pro debut at the Pebble Beach Invitational in 2016, an event played each November.

In other words, this wonderful track on the beautiful Monterey Peninsula has some great memories for him and looks an obvious place to keep his good run of form going and maybe get that elusive first win.

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Back Byeong Hun An @ 50/151.00

The forecast for Pebble Beach next week isn't good. Heavy rain is predicted for Thursday and light rain for the rest of the week.

At least winds seem to vary from light to moderate.

I'm going to lean on that a little and have a bet on Byeong Hun An at 50/151.00.

The Korean ranks 4th in the field in Tour Tips' stats for PGA Tour rounds played in 'wet' conditions (Sam Burns, Tom Kim and Viktor Hovland are the top three incidentally).

That's bonus material to be honest as a firmer foundation can be found in his current form.

The Korean started the season making birdies galore, shooting a trio of 64s across finishes of fourth in The Sentry and runner-up at the Sony Open where he lost a play-off.

Add in another near miss at the Wyndham last year and An has two seconds and a fourth in his last five PGA Tour starts. Highly impressive.

The Sony was particularly frustrating for An after he'd closed with a 64. Looking like having a four-footer to win, Grayson Murray drained a 39-footer on him and An's attempt to keep the playoff going missed.

"This one hurts. But I won't be judging this week on the last shot," An tweeted later.

As for his history at Pebble Beach, An was an encouraing tied 16th in the 2019 US Open held there.

In his one start in this event since then, he took 37th but note that he fired 69s in both rounds at Pebble.

With the broom stick putter working well (top 25 for SGP in both Hawaii events), all part of An's game are functioning now and he's well worth following.

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Now read Steve Rawlings' Pebble Beach preview