Golf Tips: Best bets for PGA American Express and Dubai Desert Classic

• Waring can make strong start in Dubai at 60/161.00

• Cameron Young can build on near misses at 40/141.00

• Langasque is one of two longshots to back at 129/1130.00

• Course info, form and more for both this week's events

American Express tips and predictions

The Punter's preview

Steve Rawlings: "Nick Dunlap ranked as high as third for Driving Distance when winning last year and the last three winners have all ranked better for length than they have for accuracy but what you do off the tee in this event is largely irrelevant.

"As a demonstration of how unimportant the driving stats are, the 2020 winner, Andrew Landry, ranked 61st for Driving Distance and when Hudson Swafford won the title for the first time in 2017, he ranked only 61^st for Driving Accuracy. Landry ranked third for DA and Swafford ranked fifth for DD...

"Rahm went off favourite two years ago and Kim was a 55.0 chance four years ago, but this is a great event for massive outsiders. Dunlap was a 1000.0 chance, Swafford was matched at 350.0 when the market first opened three years ago, and the two winners before Kim went off at 1000.0 and 500.0. And between 2008 and 2014, all seven winners went off at a triple-figure price!"

Dave Tindall's each-way picks from 40/1 to 75/1

Dave Tindall: "Cameron Young still seeks a first PGA Tour win despite peppering his majors record with five top 10s over the last three seasons. But we should know by now not to throw the towel in on such players and Young is still just 27-years-old.

"He didn't finish 2024 off in great style but an eighth place in The Sentry where he ranked 2nd for Strokes Gained: Putting and 1st Around The Green was a good start to 2025 and perhaps a massive hint that he's ready to get that elusive first victory. The seven-time (yes, seven!) runner-up on the PGA Tour has racked up those near misses from just 74 starts so it's easy to put a positive spin on his achievements."

Course and current form stats

Andy Swales: "Pete Dye's Stadium Course at PGA West opened in 1986. Water is a prominent feature, with sizeable hazards on half of its holes. It is the most difficult of this week's three layouts and underwent a significant renovation in the fall of 2024, which included expanding the putting surfaces back to their original size...

"Three other pros with solid histories in the California desert are Sung Jae Im 14/1, Sam Burns 20/1 and Brian Harman 50/1. Im has never finished outside the top-25 from six previous visits, while Burns has twice posted a tie-for sixth. Both golfers have made strong starts to 2025... Burns tied-eighth at Kapalua having been as equally as consistent as Im during the last five months of 2024."

Dubai Desert Classic tips and predictions

The Punter's preview

Steve Rawlings: "It's a strong looking renewal with Rory McIlroy bidding to win the event for a third time in-a-row and for the fifth time in total...

"Although the 2021 winner, Paul Casey, only ranked 24^th for Driving Distance, length off the tee has been extremely important here. Nobody hit it further off the tee than the winner, Rory McIlroy, last year and the top four in the DD stats finished inside the top seven and ties. Rasmus Hojgaard, who ranked fifth, finished tied for 11^th, having sat tied for fourth through three rounds.

"McIlroy ranked fourth for DD in 2023, the 2022 winner, Victor Hovland, ranked 13^th for DD, with Rory in third ranking first, and the 2020 winner, Lucas Herbert, ranked ninth for DD with Dean Burmester and Adri Arnaus, who finished tied for third, ranking first and sixth for DD."

First-Round Leader Tips: Picks at 60/1 and 66/1

Dave Tindall: "I'll jump in for Paul Waring, who played some great stuff at the Team Cup in Abu Dhabi last week, winning 3-and-a-half points out of 4. Regarded as a solid journeyman pro, the 39-year-old Englishman is suddenly flourishing after a brilliant 2024 that saw him win the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship and secure a PGA Tour card.

"Strong first-round scores were part of the deal too last year. He was the FRL at September's British Masters while he made two fast starts in the desert, ending day one in the top four in November's Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship and the DP World Tour Championship. He doesn't have the greatest record here although he fired a 5-under 67 in round two last year and has twice opened with that number."

Each-Way Tips: 35/1 Reed can reap Rory revenge

Matt Cooper: "Victory in November's Hong Kong Open, which included a third round 59, ended a near-four year victory drought for Patrick Reed and it might easily prompt a good year for the 34-year-old.

"He's a good January golfer. He's won the Humana Challenge, the Tournament of Champions and the Farmers Insurance Open in the first month of the year. He's also been second and third at Jumeirah so he likes Dubai and he's well capable of getting in the mix again this Sunday."

Find Me a 100 Winner: Langasque worth a gamble at 129/1

Dave Tindall: "At this event Romain Langasque has first-round positions of 2nd, 3rd, 9th, 20th, 27th and 28th in six visits while he opened with a 67 in Abu Dhabi in November. Langasque won his first three matches in last week's Team Cup in Abu Dhabi so is nicely prepped for more desert golf.

"As for course form, Langasque has five finishes of 27th or better in six visits so he has the potential to be a lively outsider. The final plus is that the wind looks negligible on Thursday morning, giving him the chance to immediately bank a position on the leaderboad from his 07.35 tee time."

Course and current form stats

Andy Swales: "For the professionals, water comes into play on six holes, while the greens are reasonably tame and uncomplicated. Four years ago all 18 greens returned to their original dimensions, which resulted in a collective 33% increase regarding overall size. The game's longer hitters have generally thrived in the dry desert conditions at Emirates, with the course now measuring over 7,400 yards from the back tees.

"One golfer who hasn't allowed the grass to grow under his feet during the early weeks of 2025 is Robert MacIntyre 20/1. Scotland's world No 14 has teed-off twice in Hawaii and, despite two mediocre performances, will still be better prepared than the majority of his rivals this week. He stood on the Emirates podium in 2021 and is therefore a decent each-way option in Dubai."

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