The American Express: The Punter's Preview

• Great event for longshots

• Taking on the odds-on shots on Sunday usually pays off

• Read my Dubai desert Classic preview here

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Tournament History

After two weeks in Hawaii, the PGA Tour takes in the first of three events in-a-row in California - The American Express.

The American Express began life in 1960 as the Palm Springs Desert Golf Challenge - a five-round pro-am won by Arnold Palmer.

Between 1965 and 2012 it was known as the Bob Hope Classic before Humana took over sponsorship and revived its fortunes.

The tournament had been failing to attract quality fields and the perception was that the five-round format had much to do with its demise. It was reduced to the conventional four rounds in 2012, and it's been a much better received event as a result, although disappointingly, the world number one, Scottie Scheffler, won't be in the line-up as expected.

The hand injury picked up over Christmas hasn't healed sufficiently but he's hoping to be back for the Pebble Beach Pro-Am in three weeks' time.

The American Express is a pro-am staged over three different courses (listed below) in rotation over the first three days with the host course, the Pete Dye Stadium Course (known previously as the PGA West TPC Stadium Course), staging the final round on Sunday.

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Venue

PGA West - La Quinta Country Club, California

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Course Details

Pete Dye Stadium Course (Stadium Course), par 72, 7,187 yards - Scoring Average in 2024 - 69.15
PGA West (Nicklaus Tournament Course), par 72, 7,147 yards - Scoring Average in 2024 - 68.08
La Quinta Country Club, par 72, 7,060 yards - Scoring Average in 2024 - 67.9

The Pete Dye-designed Pete Dye Stadium Course, which up until last year was known as the PGA West Stadium Course, was used for the first time nine years ago and it's usually the hardest of the three courses used.

La Quinta was the easiest of the three courses again last year and between 2017 and 2020 it was the easiest par 72 used on the PGA Tour for four seasons in-a-row.

With amateurs playing, the set-ups are deliberately less demanding than usually encountered on the PGA Tour and very low scoring is the norm. Last year's winner, Nick Dunlap, set a new tournament record with a 29-under-par total.

The Bermuda greens are usually set at around 11.5 on the Stimpmeter and the rough is minimal.

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Weather Forecast

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TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 16:30 on Thursday in the UK

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Last Eight Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

2024 - Nick Dunlap -29 1000.0999/1
2023 - Jon Rahm -27 8.07/1
2022 - Hudson Swafford -23 250.0249/1
2021 - Si Woo Kim -23 55.054/1
2020 - Andrew Landry -26 500.0499/1
2019 - Adam Long -26 1000.0999/1
2018 - Jon Rahm -22 10.519/2 (playoff)
2017 - Hudson Swafford -20 70.069/1

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What Will it Take to Win The American Express?

Nick Dunlap ranked as high as third for Driving Distance when winning last year and the last three winners have all ranked better for length than they have for accuracy but what you do off the tee in this event is largely irrelevant.

As a demonstration of how unimportant the driving stats are, the 2020 winner, Andrew Landry, ranked 61st for Driving Distance and when Hudson Swafford won the title for the first time in 2017, he ranked only 61^st for Driving Accuracy. Landry ranked third for DA and Swafford ranked fifth for DD.

Wyndham Clark ranked first for Greens in Regulation 12 months ago, but he finished only tied 39^th and nobody that finished inside the top 16 ranked inside the top-10 for GIR.

Dunlap only ranked 21^st and the average GIR ranking of the 15 winners before him was 11.3 so that can't be described as a vital stat either.

This is a tough event to evaluate statistically as it's basically just a birdie-fest and it usually boils down to who holes the most putts on Sunday.

Dunlap ranked only 14^th for Putting Average but five of the top seven in the PA rankings for the week finished inside the top 10 places.

It's tough to know what we should be looking at, but Par 4 Scoring or Par 4 Performance are possibly stats to consider.

The first five home all ranked inside the top six for Par 4 Scoring last year, and although the 2021 winner, Si Woo Kim, only ranked 10^th, the two winners after him, Swafford and Rahm, ranked second, and the two winners before him, Landry and Adam Long, ranked first and second.

Rahm only ranked fifth when he won here for the first time in 2018 but the seven winners before him topped the Par 4 Scoring.

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A recent visit to Hawaii is a big plus

Dunlop, who was the first amateur to win a PGA Tour event since Phil Mickelson way back in 1991, had only played in three PGA Tour events before taking the title as a 1000.0999/1 outsider 12 months ago.

He'd missed the cut at two US Opens, in 2022 and 2023, and he'd also missed the cut at the Bermuda Championship two months before winning here but most winners have knocked a bit of rust of in either The Sentry or the Sony Open, or both, in Hawaii.

Since Charley Hoffman won this when playing in his first event of the year back in 2007, 15 of the next 17 winners had all had at least one start. Bill Haas, back in 2015, is the other odd man out.

The red-hot favourite, Rahm, was winning his third event in four starts when he won in 2023, but a decent performance doesn't appear to be vital.

Swafford had finished 48^th in the Sony Open the week before when he won here three years and Kim finished a respectable 25^th in the Sony four years ago but the two winners before him both missed the cut at the Sony (Long in 2018 and Landry in 2019) and that was also the case for the five winners between 2008 and 2012.

The 2013 winner, Brian Gay, had finished 31st at the Sony in his sole previous start and Patrick Reed, the 2014 champ, had finished 16th in The Sentry but the three winners before Long had all shown something significant before they won.

Jason Dufner took the title having finished ninth in the Sony nine years ago, Swafford signalled his wellbeing with a 13th place at the Sony when winning here for the first time in 2017 and the 2018 winner, Rahm, had finished runner-up to Dustin Johnson in The Sentry. And he won that event in 2023 before winning here.

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Is There an Identikit Winner?

Rahm went off favourite two years ago and Kim was a 55.054/1 chance four years ago, but this is a great event for massive outsiders.

As already mentioned, Dunlap was a 1000.0999/1 chance, Swafford was matched at 350.0349/1 when the market first opened three years ago, and the two winners before Kim went off at 1000.0999/1 and 500.0499/1. And between 2008 and 2014, all seven winners went off at a triple-figure price!

Multiple event winners are fairly common so previous winners are well worth considering closely.

Arnold Palmer loved this event, and he won it five times between 1960 and 1973, the last two winners before Dunlap had both won the event previously, as many as ten men have won it more than once, and huge outsider, Landry, has very nearly won it twice.

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Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

2024 - Nick Dunlap - led by three 2.588/5
2023 - Jon Rahm - tied for the lead 1.645/8
2022 - Hudson Swafford T5th - trailing by three 25.024/1
2021 - Si Woo Kim tied for the lead 5.14/1
2020 - Andrew Landry tied for the lead 3.412/5
2019 - Adam Long solo 3rd - trailing by three 23.022/1
2018 - Jon Rahm T4th - trailing by two 4.03/1
2017 - Hudson Swafford T3rd - trailing by two 8.07/1

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In-Play Tactics

Like most low scoring birdie-fests, being up with the place is usually the place to be in this event.

Since the tournament was reduced from five rounds to four in 2012, all bar one winner has been within four strokes of the lead after round one and six of the last nine winners have been inside the front three places after the opening day. Dunlap sat tied for fifth and two off the lead last year.

As many as five of the last nine sat first or second after round one so a fast start is often key but it's not impossible to win after a slow start, as Swafford proved three years ago...

A lacklustre 70 on Thursday saw him sitting tied for 73^rd (trailing by eight) and he could still be backed at odds in excess of 200.0199/1 at halfway when he trailed by five in a tie for 24^th and although we hadn't seen a winner form off the pace for some time, Swafford wasn't the first...

Justin Leonard was eight back at halfway 18 years ago and a number of winners have been four, five, six and seven back with two rounds to go. David Duval in 1999, trailed by seven before he famously shot 59 to win by a stroke so you clearly can come from behind with a wet sail.

If you're looking to trade in-running, this is a great event in which to lay odds-on shots in-running.

Sam Burns was matched at just 1.3130/100 when he led by two after 13 holes on Sunday last year and in 14 of the last 18 renewals, we've seen at least one player trade at odds-on without winning. And in two of the last six renewals there have been two players trade at odds-on before losing - Scottie Scheffler (1.9210/11) and Abraham Ancer (1.715/7) in 2020 and Phil Mickelson (1.695/7) and Adam Hadwin (1.081/12) in 2019.

It's also worth mentioning that three of the last seven winners, Landry, and Rahm (twice), both traded at very low odds before looking like they might get beat.

Rahm drifted all the way out to 3.02/1 in-running on Sunday in 2023, having been matched at as low as 1.192/11 during round three, and 1.152/13 after three holes in round four, Landry traded at as low as 1.031/33 when he shot six clear of the field with three birdies in-a-row after the turn in 2020 but the pick-ups were immediately followed by three straight drops, and Rahm, in 2018, was matched for more than 30k at 1.061/18 in regulation play and he hit a low of 1.051/20, before Landry birdied the 72nd hole to take the event to extra time.

Year after year players trade at odds-on and get beat or in the case of Landry and Rahm, come close to throwing it away, so it's a great tournament to trade on a Sunday.

I'm taking a week off this week, so I won't be making any selections before the off, but that's as far as the disruption goes. Matt Cooper will be covering the In-Play Blog in my absence and Dave Tindall will be here at some point with the Find Me a 100 Winner column.

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*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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