The Punter

Dubai Desert Classic: The Punter's Preview

Golfer Rory McIroy
Rory McIlroy on his way to winning his fourth DDC title 12 months ago

The DP World Tour kicks off in earnest this week with the first Rolex Series event of the year and our man has the lowdown ahead of Thursday's start here...

  • Big hitters set to prosper at the Emirates

  • 54-hole leaders have a great record

  • Read my American Express preview here


Tournament History

The Dubai Desert Classic was first staged as long ago as 1989 when England's Mark James beat Australia's Peter O'Malley in a playoff.

It was the first event to be staged on the Arabian Peninsula and as there was no event staged in 1991; this will be the 36th edition.

It's a strong looking renewal with Rory McIlroy bidding to win the event for a third time in-a-row and for the fifth time in total.

The Dubai Desert Classic is the first of five Rolex Series events in 2025.


Venue

Emirates Golf Club, Dubai, UAE


Course Details

Par 72, 7,428 yards
Stroke Index in 2024 - 72.21

Apart from the 1999 and 2000 renewals, when the tournament was staged at the Dubai Creek Golf Club, the Majlis course, designed by Karl Litten and opened in 1988, has hosted this event since its inception.

The fairways are fairly generous and the rough isn't often brutal.

The front nine ends with some tough holes. In fact, three of the six toughest holes last year were the sixth, eighth and ninth holes and it's the stronger of the two nines.

The front nine last year, which has a par of 35, averaged 35.81, whereas the back nine, which contains three par fives and has a par of 37, averaged 36.44.

EMIRATES 2024 1.jpg

The Majlis is a typically exposed desert track, so the wind is very often a factor and if it gets up, the scoring is much harder than in calm conditions.

As an indication of how different the course plays in the wind, the 2020 winner, Lucas Herbert, won in only nine-under-par (the highest ever tournament aggregate score) but 12 months earlier, Bryson DeChambeau got to -24, which was the event's record low score.

The greens, that are usually set at around 11.5 on the Stimpmeter, were completely renovated prior to the off three years ago and this is what Mohammed Buamim, the Emirates club's manager, told Gulf News during the renovation.

"It was discovered that the greens, in particular, were not in the condition we would like them to be and therefore decided to have them rebuilt."We have also taken this opportunity to return them to their original size and shape, which means that they will get bigger and by that open up more choices for interesting pin positions. I'm confident that it will improve the course significantly."

The new putting surfaces are Bermuda TifEagle and the whole course is laid to Bermuda grass. Water in play on ten holes.


Weather Forecast


TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 4:00 on Thursday in the UK


Last Eight Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

2024 - Rory McIlroy -14 4.03/1
2023 - Rory McIlroy -19 4.47/2
2022 - Victor Hovland -12 (playoff) 11.010/1
2021 - Paul Casey -17 25.024/1
2020 - Lucas Herbert -9 230.0229/1 (playoff)
2019 - Bryson DeChambeau -24 11.010/1
2018 - Li Haotong -23 180.0179/1
2017 - Sergio Garcia -19 22.021/1


What Will it Take to Win the Dubai Desert Classic?

Although the 2021 winner, Paul Casey, only ranked 24th for Driving Distance, length off the tee has been extremely important here.

Nobody hit it further off the tee than the winner, Rory McIlroy, last year and the top four in the DD stats finished inside the top seven and ties. Rasmus Hojgaard, who ranked fifth, finished tied for 11th, having sat tied for fourth through three rounds.

McIlroy ranked fourth for DD in 2023, the 2022 winner, Victor Hovland, ranked 13th for DD, with Rory in third ranking first, and the 2020 winner, Lucas Herbert, ranked ninth for DD with Dean Burmester and Adri Arnaus, who finished tied for third, ranking first and sixth for DD.

Monstrously long, Bryson DeChambeau, only ranked a curiously short 26th for DD when he won here six years ago but the six winners before him ranked 14th, fourth, 10th, first, fifth and fourth.

Although Hovland ranked third for Driving Accuracy three years ago and Sergio Garcia ranked fourth seven years ago, you don't have to hit it especially straight here.

viktor hovland wins dubai desert classic 2022.jpg

Hovland and Garcia apart, no other winner has ranked any better than 15th for fairways found, the average DA ranking of the ten winners before Hovland was just 37.1 and Rory has ranked only 82nd and 49th when winning the last two editions.

McIlroy only ranked 24th for Greens In Regulation in 2023 and ninth last year but as many as 13 of the last 20 winners have ranked inside the top-five for GIR.

Rory and the runner-up, Patrick Reed, ranked third and second for PA two years ago and the first four home ranked eighth, seventh, 18th and first for SGP. The beaten playoff protagonist in 2022, Richard Bland, ranked first for PA and second for SGP and scanning a little further back, the 2019 winner, DeChambeau, ranked second for PA, Li ranked first in 2018, and so did Danny Willett when he won here in 2016, but it hasn't been so vital of late.

The 2020 and 2021 winners only ranked 22nd and 21st for Putting Average, and 41st and 14th for Strokes Gained Putting and Rory only ranked 19th and 31st for those two metrics 12 months ago.

In summary, GIR is an important stat but the only place to start is Driving Distance. Short hitters are going to struggle and concentrating on those that can give it a good whack off the tee need to be considered carefully.


Correlating Courses

Historically, form at Dom Pedro Victoria, which hosted the Portugal Masters up until 2022, held up well here but that form's a bit old now.

Form at any other events held in the desert needs to be respected so check out the Qatar Masters, the Abu Dhabi Championship, the Bahrain Championship, the DP World Championship and next week's event, the Ras Al Khaimah Championship.

Thorbjorn Olesen won the Ras Al Khaimah Championship last year having finished tied 21st here but he'd sat seventh with a round to go.

Away from the desert and old form in Portugal, the Nedbank Golf Challenge is an event that appears to correlate well with this one.

As many as seven players to win the Nedbank Golf Challenge at the Gary Player Country Club have won this event and five Gary Player Course winners - Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Alex Noren, Lee Westwood, Martin Kaymer and Retief Goosen have finished second here.

And finally, links form holds up really well here. The course is fairly exposed and it tends to get faster and harder as the week wares on which explains why links exponents do well here.


Team Cuppers likely to contend

Last week's Team Cup, staged at the Abu Dhabi Golf Club, could prove to be a perfect warm up for this event.

It's a relaxed match play format but it will have given the participants a chance to knock off some rust and to familiarise themselves with desert golf again.

Form at the Abu Dhabi Golf Club, which used to host the Abu Dhabi Championship up until 2021, used to crossover very nicely with this track.

The 2021 winner of the Dubai Desert Classic, Paul Casey, has won there twice, and at the halfway stage of the 2021 renewal of the Abu Dhabi Championship, the last to be staged at the Abu Dhabi Golf Club, four of the top-six had previously won this event.


Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

2024 - Rory McIlroy - T2nd - trailing by two 2.6613/8
2023 - Rory McIlroy - led by three 1.42/5
2022 - Victor Hovland - T13th trailing by six 48.047/1
2021 - Paul Casey - led by a stroke 1.991/1
2020 - Lucas Herbert - T13th trailing by six 300.0299/1
2019 - Bryson DeChambeau led by a stroke 1.9620/21
2018 - Li Haotong led by a stroke 3.711/4
2017 - Sergio Garcia led by three strokes 1.738/11


In-Play Tactics

Rory McIlroy was matched at 50.049/1 in-running last year and he was ten adrift at halfway, but he was helped considerably by the clear leader, Cam Young, once again underperforming in-the-mix.

Cam Young in Dubai.jpg

The high-class American, who's still yet to win anywhere, was matched at a low of 1.794/5 during round two and he was three in front at halfway before rounds of 71 and 74 over the weekend eventually saw him finish third, beaten by two, but this generally a venue that really suits the frontrunners.

As highlighted above in the course notes, how windy it is here is a determining factor as to how hard the course plays and it also has a huge bearing on how the tournament pans out. The 2020 winner, Herbert, won with the highest winning total (-9), the previous record high had been -11 (Alvaro Quiros in 2011), and Hovland and Bland only got to 12-under-par three years ago.

It's no coincidence that those three editions are the only other renewals in which the winners have come from off the pace...

The tricky blustery conditions caused mayhem five years ago and although they'd been up with the pace earlier in the tournament, both the playoff protagonists, Herbert and Bezuidenhout, had trailed by six with a round to go yet they finished two strokes clear of the remainder having traded at 1000.0999/1 during the final round!

Having been matched at a high of 95.094/1 in-running, Hovland finished birdie-eagle-birdie in 2022, but it still wouldn't have been enough without a poor finish from McIlroy, who was matched at a low of 1.392/5.

Alvaro Quiros' victory here in 2011 was remarkable for several reasons. He made three eagles, including a two on the par four second hole, and a hole-in-one during the final round, and he also made a pair of triple-bogeys, one on day one, at the par five 10th, and one at the eighth hole on day four but the most remarkable thing about his win was how far off the pace he had been before winning. He trailed by eight strokes after both rounds one and two and up until 2020 that was the furthest any winner had trailed by a country mile.

Although he trailed by six after round three, Hovland started nicely enough (ninth and three back after round one and fifth and four adrift at halfway) and Mark O'Meara, who was six adrift in 2004 and Quiros, who trailed by eight in 2011, are the only winners this century that weren't within four of the lead after round one. Rory sat tied for 27th and four off the lead after 18 holes last year.

Rory, who had sat tied for 24th and 10 adrift, Herbert, who was tied 11th and four back at halfway five years ago, Quiros 14 years ago, and Robert-Jan Derksen, the shock 2003 champ, who sat tied for 20th and five off the lead, are the only four winners to be off the pace at halfway. Every other course winner here has been inside the top seven places at halfway and unless the weather is a big issue, concentrating on the leaders is the way to go.

Only three of the last 12 54-hole leaders have been beaten (Young, 2024, Ashun Wu in 2020 and Justin Harding 2022) and in 22 of the 35 editions staged to date, the third-round leader has gone on to win.

I'm taking a week off this week, so I won't be making any selections before the off, but that's as far as the disruption goes. Matt Cooper will be covering the In-Play Blog in my absence and Dave Tindall will be here at some point with the Find Me a 100 Winner column.


*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter


Read more golf tips, previews and analysis here


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