US Open 2026: Dave Tindall's 10-year trends deliver two 50/1 plays for Shinnecock

Trends delivered Masters third - can we do better?

The trends almost landed the US Masters winner earlier this year when Cameron Young led on the final day at Augusta before eventually finishing tied third. That produced a decent each-way return at 22/123.00.

Usually we get a clear leader and some further separation using the points system explained below but for this year's US Open at Shinnecock it's incredibly tight.

And, thankfully, it hasn't just thrown up the top five in the betting.

Right, time to crack on and list the 10 categories involved for the 2026 US Open at Shinnecock.

The trends categories are: Ranking, Nationality, Age, US Open Form, US Open Experience, Recent Majors Form, Major Winner, Current Form, Course Fit and Freshness.

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Ranking

Regular readers of the trends know the drill now. But for newcomers to this column, let's use this category to explain the points system again.

The key is frequency - how many times something has happened in the last 10 years of the US Open.

A few years ago I switched to the Datagolf rankings as they reflected the fortunes of the LIV players whereas the OWGR did not.

They're a better guide in my view and, conveniently, J.J. Spaun was ranked 25th with Datagolf before what many saw as a shock win at Oakmont 12 months ago.

That meant, all of the last 10 winners of the US Open were ranked inside the top 25 of the Datagolf rankings at the time of their win.

Therefore, it's a simple distribution. Anyone in the top 25 of the current Datagolf rankings gets 10pts (as it's happened every year) while anyone outside gets 0pts.

Ranked 1-25 in Datagolf rankings = 10pts
Ranked 26 or higher = 0pts

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Nationality

This has been a good event for home American players so, again, that could have pointed us to Spaun last year.

Jon Rahm and Matt Fitzpatrick struck a blow for Europe in 2021 and 2022 but the other eight winners in the last 10 years were all US golfers.

So, using our frequency-based scoring system, all American players in this year's field score 8pts and Euros (thanks to Rahm and Fitzpatrick) 2pts.

There hasn't been a winner from any other part of the globe so the likes of Si Woo Kim, Hideki Matsuyama and Adam Scott score 0pts in this category.

American = 8pts
European = 2pts
Rest of World = 0pts

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Age

Spaun was aged 34 when he hoisted the trophy last year and that was slightly on the old side for a US Open winner.

Eight of the prevous nine champions were in a narrow age band from 26-31 inclusive. Apart from Spaun the other exception was 35-year-old Gary Woodland at Pebble in 2019.

So, again using frequency, anyone aged 26-31 scores 8pts and those 32-35 get 2pts.

It's a blank for those under 25 or over 35. The logic? Experience is needed to win this tough test but the grind maybe wears down older players.

This trend goes against 37-year-old Rory McIlroy.

Aged 26-31 inclusive = 8pts
Aged 32-35 inclusive = 2pts
Under 25 = 0pts
Over 35 = 0pts

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US Open Form

Spaun didn't have any US Open form but 2024 champion Bryson DeChambeau was winning the tournament for a second time after landing the trophy in 2020.

Five of the previous 10 US Open champions had already posted a top 10 in the event so that's the strongest bucket.

Three had previously managed a finish between 11th and 25th while two hadn't chalked up a top 25 before.

It's not the strongest trend but history says it's a plus to have shown some past form in a US Open.

Top 10 in a US Open = 5pts
Best of 11th-25th in a US Open = 3pts
No top 25 in a US Open = 2pts

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US Open Experience

Spaun last year and Webb Simpson in 2011 captured the US Open on just their second start in the event. But winning it so soon is rare.

Conversely, it hasn't been a good tournament for those who have played in it many times with none of the last 10 winners having appeared in 10 or more.

It means there's a sweet spot which shows that seven of the last 10 winners had played in the event between five and nine times inclusive.

Picking a player to highlight the scoring, Russell Henley has taken part in 12 US Opens now so the trends suggest the window has closed for him.

Played from five to nine previous US Opens = 7pts
Played from one to four previous US Opens = 3pts
Played in 10 or more or zero US Opens = 0pts

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Recent Majors Form

Spaun was a trends buster last year as he'd never prevously had a top 20 in any major.

But that's highly unusual as most major winners don't come out of thin air.

Before his win in this event in 2024, DeChambeau had just finished runner-up in the US PGA while wind back a month earlier and he'd placed sixth in the US Masters.

Matt Fitzpatrick, the champion in 2022, had posted fifth in the US PGA and 14th in the Masters so was in the groove majors-wise.

Overall, the numbers are strong: eight of the last 10 US Open winners had cracked the top 10 in at least one of their previous two majors.

Top 10 in one of previous two majors = 8pts
No top 10 in one of previous two majors = 2pts

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Major Winner

Here's a trend that Spaun contributed to rather than acted as an outlier.

Although having a strong run in a recent major is seen as a big plus, is it an advantage to have won one already?

History says not. Looking at the last 10 US Open winners, only DeChambeau (2024) and Brooks Koepka (2018) already had a major in the bank.

Spaun became the eighth player in the last 10 years to make the US Open their first major.

Won a major = 2pts
Not won a major = 8pts

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Current Form

Common sense says you don't go into the US Open searching for your 'A' game. And there is decent evidence that you have to be in good nick to meet the demands of a testing US Open track.

Spaun again helps this trend as he'd finished sixth at the Charles Schwab Challenge just two starts earlier. While we're discussing recent surprise major winners, also note that newly-crowned US PGA champion Aaron Rai went into that event on the back of a top five.

Back to the US Open and eight of the last 10 winners had posted a top 12 in one or both of their previous two PGA Tour starts.

This is a trend that goes way back and before our 10-year study period. Angel Cabrera was classed as a shock US Open winner at Oakmont in 2007 but the Argentine had finished fifth in the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth last time out.

Top 12 in one of two previous starts = 8pts
No top 12 in one of two previous starts = 2pts

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Course Fit

With the tournament moving around, previous course form is limited (2018). But there are certainly some trends that emerge when looking back at the last 10 years and they should apply again at Shinnecock.

It's fair to say that a US Open winner needs to be a good driver and heading to Shinnecock showing good form with the big stick is definitely a plus.

Looking at the stats shows that nine of the last 10 US Open winners had ranked in the top 16 for SG: Off The Tee in one of their previous three starts

Spaun added to this stat 12 months ago as he'd been 15th for Off The Tee in the US PGA three starts before his Oakmont win.

As for 2018 when Shinnecock last hosted this event, runner-up Tommy Fleetwood ranked 2nd for Off The Tee that week and third-placed Dustin Johnson 4th. OTT is definitely a stat that has merit.

Top 16 for SG: Off The Tee in one of last three starts = 9pts
No top 16 for SG: Off The Tee in one of last three starts = 1pt

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Freshness

Spaun didn't play the Canadian Open before going to Oakmont and winning.

And it certainly make sense that being fresh is a plus before what many regard as the most gruelling tournament of the season.

The evidence leans towards not overplaying and seven of the last 10 winners had at least one week off in the previous fortnight ahead of their US Open win.

The stat goes against those who headed to the Canadian Open after playing the Memorial.

Had at least a week off in one of the previous two = 7pts
Played both the previous two events = 3pts

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And that's all 10 categories complete. So...

The Top Points Scorers

The scores are in and - drumroll - these are the top 10:

74 Sam Burns
72 Scottie Scheffler
72 Cameron Young
72 Xander Schauffele
72 Chris Gotterup
66 Jon Rahm
66 Collin Morikawa
66 Bryson DeChambeau
63 Russell Henley
62 Si Woo Kim
62 Wyndham Clark

Wow, this is tight but with the slighest of edges your trends winner is Sam Burns!

The 29-year-old American has finished seventh and ninth in the last two US Opens and was also seventh in this year's Masters.

He's a non-major winner and warmed up for Shinnecock with fourth place at Memorial.

Burns has played in five previous US Opens so is in the sweet spot for champions of this event.

He only loses points for playing in both the build-up events but still has enough in hand to edge out the quartet of fellow Americans in tied second.

Burns is our first each-way bet at 50s (1/5 Odds, 6 Places).

As for the four players in tied second, it's tempting to put up Xander Schauffle at 16s given that one of his seven US Open top 10s came via sixth at Shinnecock in 2018.

But let's go for the big price and try non-major winner Chris Gotterup at 50s.

He likes being near the coast at venues exposed to the wind and was 10th at last month's US PGA where he ranked 5th for Off The Tee.

A two-time winner in 2026, Gotterup was also third on his Open Championship debut last summer.

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