US Masters 2026: 10-year trends point to...

Dave Tindall's Masters Trends - How it works...

The annual US Masters 10-year trends piece is always fun to write as I go into it never knowing who might come out on top.

With the tournament the only one of the four Majors to be played on the same course, the points system I use lends itself well to the reoccuring patterns and repeat results that Augusta throws up.

That's been shown in the last four years.

Rory McIlroy was the trends pick in 2022 and he finished runner-up having been available at 20.019/1 on the Betfair Exchange when the trends preview went out the week before.

Jon Rahm would have been ranked first (instead of joint sixth) in the 2023 trends but for his rather unlikely omission from one of the key categories. He'd scored top marks in nine of the other 10.

Scottie Scheffler was ranked third ahead of his win in 2024 but would have been top had he taken one more shot at Augusta in 2023. 

McIlroy was ranked joint first on the trends points grid last year and, in one of the most thrilling Masters in memory, finally got his hands on the Green Jacket. 

As well as hopefully throwing up the winner, the points system is also useful in identifying a big name who might not have the outstanding chance that the betting suggests.

Scheffler, for example, didn't even feature in the top 10 points scorers in last year's trends despite his brilliant form. The red-hot favourite eventually finished fourth.

McIlroy and Scheffler, the last two winners, have drifted in the Betfair betting this year but will one of them come out top in the 2026 trends?

Let's get the ball rolling.

Here are the 10 categories.

They are: Age, World Ranking, Masters Appearances, Best Masters Finish, The Game For Augusta, Defending Champion, Recent Form, Winning Form, Recent Major Form and Last Year's Finish.

---

Masters Trend #1 - Age - Good for the 20-somethings

Let's use age to explain the scoring system.

Points are awarded based on how often something has happened over the last 10 years at Augusta.

Rory McIlroy was 35 when he won last year, becoming only the third 30-something in the last decade to lift the trophy.

Those in their 20s had won each of the previous four and, starting from a 28-year-old Danny Willett in 2016, 20-somethings have won six of the last 10 Masters.  

So, based on those frequencies, anyone in their 20s this year is awarded 6pts while anyone in their 30s gets 3pts. 

Tiger Woods was 43 when scoring his remarkable 2019 win so the 40+ veterans get a point. Here's the allocation.

In their 20s: 6pts
In their 30: 3pts
In their 40s: 1pt

Examples of golfers in their 20s going into the 2026 Masters: Scottie Scheffler, Cameron Young, Bob MacIntyre, Collin Morikawa.

Masters Trend #2 - World Ranking - The higher the better

For the last few editions of this preview I've used Datagolf rankings as they take into account LIV tournaments which previously hadn't offerered world ranking points.

That's changed now but Datagolf still offers a better snapshot of everyone's merits.  

All of the last 10 winners were ranked in the world's top 30 and, more specifically, eight of those sat in the top 20.

Using frequency to guide us again, that gives a fairly straightforward points allocation.

1-20 in the Datagolf rankings  = 8pts
21-30 in the Datagolf rankings = 2pts

Masters Trend #3 - Appearances - Augusta experience valuable

Fuzzy Zoeller passed away in November of last year and left behind one of the most quoted Masters facts: no-one has won on their Masters debut since he did in 1979.

It took McIlroy 16 attempts to finally win at Augusta and, despite the odd exception - Jordan Spieth (2015) and Danny Willett (2016) both won on the back of just a single appearance - experience still counts for plenty.

Overall, eight of the last 10 winners had played in at least three Masters.

Played in 3 or more Masters = 8pts
Played in 1 or 2 Masters = 2pts
Played in 0 Masters = 0pts

This stat goes against Masters first-timers Chris Gotterup and Marco Penge.

Masters Trend #4 - Best Masters Finish - Top five desirable

Masters winners very rarely come from nowhere. Normally, they've telegraphed their ability to tackle Augusta National for 72 holes with a strong previous finish.

How strong? Seven of the last 10 champions had posted a previous top five.

As for the three players in the last decade who hadn't delivered a previous top five, two had managed a top 25 and one other (Danny Willett) had a best of 38th.

Previous Top 5 = 7pts
Previous best of 6th-25th = 2pts
Previous best of 26th-40th = 1pt

Big names without a Masters top five? Matt Fitzpatrick, Cam Young and Viktor Hovland.

Masters Trend #5 - The Game For Augusta - Evidence of all-round prowess

This is a relatively new category and involved crunching a lot of traditional stats (we've not got enough Strokes Gained data yet over a 10-year period).

The question is this: 'what does a potential Masters winner need to do well to triumph on this unique layout?' Was it smashing it long, being a brilliant iron player or a wizard around the greens?

In the end, the answer was just about everything and double Masters winner Bubba Watson highlights the fact that being a one-trick pony simply isn't enough.

Watson didn't win the Masters in 2012 and 2014 just because he hit it miles; he also ranked in the top 12 for Putting Average in those two winning years and was 5th and 15th respectively for Scrambling.

But, crucially, he'd already shown he could handle the super-fast greens of Augusta National by ranking in the top 20 for Putting Average in two of his first three starts there (2008 and 2011).

The key point to note is that the vast majority of recent winners had shown they had the game for Augusta by showing up well in the various statistical categories in previous appearances.

Here's how past Masters champs had shaped up on the traditional stats before slipping their arms into the green jacket.

Driving Distance: nine of 10 had previously recorded a top 20 in this category
Driving Accuracy: eight of 10 had been in the top 20 for DA in a previous visit
Greens In Regulation: eight of last 10 had ranked 12th or better for GIR before
Scrambling: eight of 10 had ended a previous Masters in the top 20 for Scr
Putting Average: seven of last 10 had ranked 20th or higher for PA at Augusta
Ball-Striking: eight of 10 had previously ranked in the top 10 in this category

Looking at the last 10 champions, eight had ticked off at least five of those six categories before winning. So, for example, before winning in 2021, Hideki Matsuyama had shown his Augusta suitability by recording a previous best of 7th in DD, 15th in DA, 6th in GIR, 4th in Scr, 4th in PA and 6th in Ball-Striking.

He'd obviously recorded those personal bests across various Masters but, over that time, Matsuyama had shown that he had all the skills to be a green jacket winner.

Previously ticked five or more of the above categories (i.e. finished in top 20 for Driving Distance, Driving Accuracy and Scrambling, top 12 for Greens In Regulation and top 10 for Ball-Striking and Putting Average) = 8pts

Ticked off between 1 and 4 of above list = 2pts

One big name who just falls short is Collin Morikawa, who hasn't done enough yet in both Driving Distance and Putting Average.

Masters Trend #6 - Defending Champion - Back-to-back wins extremely rare

Only the absolute legends - Jack Nicklaus, Nick Faldo and Tiger Woods (14 Green Jackets between them) - have managed to win back-to-back Masters. 

Woods was the last to do it in 2002 so history says McIlroy has a huge task on his hands to try and retain the trophy.

Are the extra media duties and kerfuffle involved in hosting the Champions Dinner to blame? Whatever it is, the stat is ingrained and only three defending champions since 2007 have managed a top 10, never mind a win.

As no defending champion has returned to win in the last decade (our study period), last year's winner, McIlroy, takes a big hit in this category. Sorry Rory.

Defending champion = 0pts
Not the defending champion = 10pts

Masters Trend #7 - Recent Form - Strong current play a good pointer

McIlroy was in excellent form ahead of his Masters win last year.

At the start of February he'd triumphed at Pebble Beach while just under a month before the Masters the Northern Irishman had captured the Players Championship. He headed off to Augusta on the back of a top five in the Houston Open.

A look at the last 10 Green Jacket winners shows that eight had a top 12 in the same month of the US Masters or the previous month. That's usually March/April although in the delayed 2020 edition it was October/November.

Again, I'll need a LIV adjustment here as 12th in a LIV isn't as good. I'll make a top six in LIV the requirement for top marks while a LIV top 12 gets 3pts.

Top 12 finish in a PGA Tour event/Top six in a LIV tournament in same/previous month = 8pts
Best of 13th-30th in a PGA Tour event/Top 12 in a LIV tournament in March/April = 2pts

Masters Trend #8 - Winning Form - Confidence counts

Winning is the ultimate confidence boost ahead of taking on Augusta National and McIlroy proved that again last year with two victories in the build-up.

Scheffler did the same in 2024 while Jon Rahm had actually reeled off three early-season wins before his 2023 triumph.  

As for other Masters winners, Dustin Johnson, Sergio Garcia and Danny Willett had all knocked off a victory earlier in the season before landing the big one at Augusta.

Add it up and seven of the last 10 Masters winners had already banked a win earlier in the season. Two of the other three had delivered a top five ahead of their win while all 10 had managed at least a top 15.

Posted a win in 2026 = 7pts
Had a best finish of 2nd to 5th in 2026 = 2pts
Had a best finish of 6th to 15th in 2026 = 1pt

Masters Trend #9 - Recent Major Form - Setting up a base camp

This has become a key category in all the Majors and it works particuarly well for Augusta.

The premise is that Masters winners don't come out of the blue; they've given us a warning with a big show in a recent-ish Major.

The stats show that nine of the last 10 Masters winners had posted a top six in a Major in one of the previous two seasons. Even someone we consider to be a slightly freakish winner, Danny Willett, had finished tied sixth at the 2015 Open just two Majors before his 2016 Masters triumph. The odd one out was Matsuyama whose best was 13th.

This stat hurts Jordan Spieth (no Major top 10 since 2023) and Akshay Bhatia (best Major finish is 16th).

Top Six in a Major in 2024 or 2025 = 9pts
7th-15th in a Major in 2024 or 2025 = 1pt

Masters Trend #10 - Last Year's Finish - Hunger a motivator

Finally, for an event that has numerous quirks to it, one real oddity is that winners tend not to have played well the year before.

Take McIlroy for example. He'd only finished 22nd in the 2024 Masters before winning in 2025.

Does the disappointment of not featuring on Sunday act as extra motivation 12 months later? Or, conversely, do those who played well in the previous Masters expect it'll go their way again and get caught out. Is it just the law of averages?

Whatever the reason, eight of the last 10 Masters winners hadn't cracked the top 10 the year before. It's certainly a strong stat.

Played in but didn't make the top 10 in the 2025 Masters = 8pts
Made the top 10 in the 2025 Masters = 2pts

The Top Points Scorers

And now the exciting bit!!

The scores are in and, drumroll, these are the leading scorers in the rankings:

76 Jon Rahm
74 Cameron Young
73 Collin Morikawa
71 Tommy Fleetwood, Matt Fitzpatrick
70 Bryson DeChambeau, Russell Henley
67 Scottie Scheffler
65 Xander Schauffele, Hidei Matsuyama, Patrick Cantlay

It's Jon Rahm!

The 2023 Masters winner scores 76 out of a possible 79, only dropping points in the age category as he's no longer in his 20s.

The Spaniard has a superb Augusta pedigree and, in terms of form, his five starts on LIV this season have produced a win, three seconds and a fifth.

McIlroy has a bunch of trends against him (defending champion, no win this year, no good finish in March/April) so is way down the list.

Second-ranked Cam Young drops points in just one categery - the lack of a Masters top five. That said, he's been seventh and ninth in two of the last three and the only thing he needs to improve there is his Scrambling. 

That said, he ranks 19th for Scrambling on the PGA Tour this season having been 95th and 99th in the previous two campaigns.

So, this all leads to a couple of bets - a win only punt on Rahm and Young each-way.

One final note: Tommy Fleetwood and Russell Henley both have the chance to go joint-top if they were to take victory in this week's Texas Open. 

However, if either were to win I'd introduce a tie-breaker. No Masters winner in the last decade has won the week before (Phil Mickelson was the last to do it in 2006) so Fleetwood/Henley would miss out to Rahm on that basis.

---

Now read all the rest of our Masters tips, previews and guides

---