It was a case of close but no cigar again last week when 130.0129/1 pick, Wyndham Clark, was matched at a low of even money before he missed out on the playoff by a stroke at the Memorial Tournament.
It was a frustrating end given he made very respectable pars at the tough two finishing holes to post an 11-under-par total that secured solo third. He was passed by Ryan Gerard, who birdied the 17th, and the winner JT Poston who birdied the last.
With the US Open just a week away, there's no DP World Tour action this week but the PGA Tour event, the RBC Canadian Open, which I've previewed, has been a reasonable event for long-shots.
Jhonnatan Vegas won the event back-to-back in 20016 and 2017 and the last three winners have gone off at 95.094/1, 110.0109/1 and 70.069/1 on the Betfair Exchange so I've picked out three, starting with the six-time PGA Tour winner, Chris Kirk.
Chris Kirk has disappointing current form figures reading MC-44-31-MC and he's playing at this week's venue, the North Course at TPC Toronto, for the first time, so it's perhaps not surprising to see him trading at such a big price. But there are reasons to suggest he can be a factor and that the price is wrong.
Kirk's six Tour wins span 13 years, between 2011 and 2024, and his first and last victories, in the Sanderson Farms Championship and The Sentry, demonstrate his liking for a low-scoring event like this.
He won the SFC with a 22-under-par total and he got to as low as 29-under when winning The Sentry two years ago. And he also lost a playoff at the Rocket Classic last year after 266 - 22-under-par total.
That extra time defeat almost a year ago shows he can still compete at this level and so does his third round 65 at Aronimink at last month's US PGA Championship, that was bettered by nobody in the field that day.
He slipped from 11th to 44th with a 74 on Sunday at Aronimink. But he'll arrive in Canada in good spirits having qualified for the US Open on Monday when he posted 65-64 around Hawks Ridge Golf Club to win the qualifier in his home state of Georgia by two strokes with a 15-under-par total.
This is only the seventh time that the 41-year-old has teed it up in the Canadian Open and it's just his second appearance in eight years, but he finished fourth in the event on debut back in 2012 and seventh on his last visit in 2022.
He should take to the venue and he's a big price for someone so prolific with extremely recent winning form, albeit only in a regional qualifier.
Place order to lay 8 Us @ 10.09/1 and 12 Us @ 2.01/1
The 27-year-old Oklahoman, Austin Eckroat, is playing in the Canadian Open for the first time this week and I can see why he's put it on his schedule.
Ryan Fox and Sam Burns reached 18-under-par last year before the Kiwi edged out the American in extra-time. Eckroat has a record of performing well in low scoring affairs.
He finished runner-up to Jason Day in the Byron Nelson Championship in 2023 before recording high finishes in both the RSM Classic and the Wyndham Championship. In-between those two top eight finishes he won the Cognizant Classic two years ago in 17-under-par.
He claimed his second PGA Tour title in the World Wide Technologies Championship in 24-under-par in November 2024 and he's hinted at a return to form of late too.
He and his partner, Davis Thompson, couldn't live with the Fitzpatrick brothers in the Zurich Classic at the end of Apil, finishing sixth, having sat tied for second with 18 to play, and he was 10th in the Texas Open prior to that.
His form figures since read an underwhelming 19-40-67 but he ranked third for Putting Average at the Charles Schwab Challenge two weeks ago and this place should suit his style.
Back Austin Eckroat (1 U)
Place order to lay 8 Us @ 10.09/1 and 12 Us @ 2.01/1
Kevin Roy hit form at around this time last year, finishing eighth in the Rocket Classic and third in the John Deere Classic after finishing a respectable 18th in this event, and there are reasons to believe the huge outsider can improve on last year's top 20 finish this time around.
Like Kirk, he qualified for the US Open on Monday, winning by two at the Century Golf Club in New York, and he finished third just three starts ago in the Myrtle Beach Classic, where he topped the Putting Average stats for the week.
That event is interesting given it's where Fox won prior to his victory here 12 months ago and it's where Aaron Rai contended before winning the US PGA Championship last month.
Roy missed the cut in his next start and he finished only 74th last time out in the Charles Schwab Challenge but this low scoring affair should be more to his liking and he'll be in a confident mood after Monday's qualification.
Place order to lay 8 Us @ 10.09/1 and 12 Us @ 2.01/1