The Punter's De-brief: Scheffler cruises home at TPC Southwind

---

09:30 - August 17, 2026 - Scheffler wins the FedEx St Jude by eight after an early bad break

The third-round leader and pre-event 6.411/2 favourite, Scottie Scheffler, started the final round of the FedEx St Jude Championship slowly, playing his first four holes in one-over par thanks to an outrageously unlucky break on the par five third but with his closest challengers, Sam Burns and Sungjae Im, playing their first six holes in three and two over respectively, and with nobody making a significant move from off the pace, the world number one never looked like losing.

Off the sprinkler head ... into the water

Scottie's bad break leads to a bogey, and his lead is down to one.

CBS pic.twitter.com/k3Ts1jUOpz

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) August 16, 2026

Scheffler made back-to-back birdies at five and six and the result was never in doubt after that. He cruised to a brilliant eight-stroke win and he's going to be a warm favourite to double up at Bellerive in the BMW Championship which I've previewed here.

Over on the DP World Tour we witnessed a far more calamitous finish to the Danish Golf Championship where home hero, Jeff Winther, eventually emerged triumphant after a quite brilliant back-nine at the Great Northern.

Alone in sixth, trailing by four, and trading at 30.029/1 with a round to go, the pre-event 160.0159/1 chance, Winther, was level par for the day after eight holes when bogeys at six and eight cancelled out back-to-back birdies at four and five but he played his next five holes in three-under before putting the event to bed with this eagle two at the par four 15^th, just after Rasmus Hojgaard had eagled the par five 17^th.

WHAT IS GOING ON?!

The Danes are going eagle-for-eagle across the back 9! #DanishGolf pic.twitter.com/zKJG2ZS4Mz

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) August 16, 2026

With the 54-hole leader, Romain Langasque, who was matched at a low of 2.789/5, bogeying the first four holes, plenty of players had a chance to win and in addition to the winner and Langasque, four others traded at below 9/43.25.

Antoine Rozner was matched at as low as 2.35/4 on Saturday before he double bogeyed the par three 18^th, Yanhan Zou hit 2.0421/20 early on in round four, Matthew Jordan hit a low of 2.77/4, and Caleb Surratt was matched at as short as 3.211/5.

---

09:00 - August 16, 2026 - Scheffler in pole but chasers are chanced in the FedEx St Jude

The pre-event 75.074/1 chance, Antoine Rozner, was matched at as low as 2.35/4 to win the Danish Golf Championship on the DP World Tour yesterday but after missing a six-foot birdie putt at the par five 17^th, he dunked his tee-shot into the water on the par three finishing hole to record a double-bogey five and it's fellow Frenchman, Romain Langasque, who was a 130.0129/1 chance before the off, that shows the way with 18 to play. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 08:50.

Romain Langasque -14 3.02/1
Yanhan Zhou -13 4.77/2
Antoine Rozner -12 6.86/1
Caleb Surratt -11 11.010/1
Matthew Jordan -11 12.523/2
Jeff Winther -10 30.029/1
Rasmus Hojgaard -9 22.021/1
Ewen Ferguson -9 46.045/1
Brandon Stone -9 80.079/1
Cameron Adam -9 100.099/1
-8 and 60.059/1 bar

The leader, Langasque, is in front with a round to go for the first time in his career.

He was tied for the lead with 18 to play before losing a playoff at the Slovakia Challenge on the HotelPlanner Tour a decade ago but he won his only title on that Tour from two adrift with a round to go and he was five back with 18 to play when he won his only DP World Tour title to date - the now defunct Wales open in 2020.

I'm happy to swerve the leader and Rozner may find it hard to lift himself after yesterday's finish.

The 18-year-old Chinese, Yanhan Zhou, is a remarkable talent that looks destined for great things, but he's twice been in-contention on the DP World Tour already and not performed brilliantly and I just wonder whether he's quite ready to win outside of his homeland.

He sat third, trailing by a stroke, at the halfway stage of the Volvo China Open in April but finished 52^nd and he finished 12^th at the Austrian Open a month later having led by a stroke at the midway point.

He may very well kick on today and get the job done but on a tricky looking leaderboard, the one I like at 10/111.00 is another exciting young talent - Caleb Surratt.

At 22, the American has a bit more experience than Zhou and although he's likely to feel the heat today, I thought he was worth chancing.

Surratt plays on the LIV Golf Tour, where he's just finished fifth in the UK and 15^th in New York but with the future of that Tour looking uncertain, a victory on the DP World Tour would provide him with some security for the next few years.

The Californian isn't as exposed as the Europeans on the leaderboard, but he has more experience than Zhou and he looks a fair price on the Betfair Exchange.

Generally an 8/19.00 chance on the High Street and an industry best of 9/110.00 with the Sportsbook, I thought he was worth a small wager at 11.521/2.

Is it a done deal in Memphis?

Over on the PGA Tour, it looked like it was all systems go for my pre-event 47/148.00 fancy, Viktor Hovland, when he drew alongside an out of sorts Scottie Scheffler after four holes of the third round at the FedEx St Jude Championship yesterday but the pre-event favourite, Scheffler, recovered nicely after a shaky start to shoot a steady two-under-par 68 after playing his first seven holes in one-over.

In contrast, Hovland lost his way badly after his bright start and having been matched at as short as 4.47/2, the Norwegian now trails by seven with 18 to play and Scheffler remains the man to beat. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 08:55.

Scottie Scheffler -13 1.528/15
Sam Burns -11 6.05/1
Sungjae Im -11 9.417/2
Tommy Fleetwood -8 44.043/1
Jake Knapp -8 90.089/1
Hideki Matsuyama -7 100.099/1
Si Woo Kim -7 130.0129/1
Brian Harman -7 300.0299/1
Alex Noren -7 300.0299/1
Tom Kim -6 360.0359/1
Viktor Hovland -6 610.0609/1
Kurt Kitayama -6 610.0609/1
-5 and 800.0799/1 bar

Playing with his good friend, Sam Burns, Scheffler really should kick on today and get the job done.

He's led by two strokes or more with a round to go eight times previously and the only time he got beat was at the 2022 Charles Schwab Challenge when Burns shot a five-under-par 65 to catch him before beating him with a birdie three at the first extra hole.

Burns had begun the final round trailing by seven and trading at 250.0249/1 and he'd teed off an hour and 25 minutes before Scheffler, who had led by two with 18 to play, and I just wonder whether something similar could happen today?

Only nine of the 22 players to take a clear lead into the final round at TPC Southwind over the last 30 years have gone on to win and although Lucas Glover won in extra time having led by a stroke three years ago, and Hideki Matsuyama held on to win by two having led by five in 2024, since Daniel Berger converted a three-stroke lead in 2018, Rory, McIlroy, Brendon Todd, Harris English, J.J Spaun and Tommy Fleetwood, last year, have all failed to convert a clear third round lead.

Fleetwood, traded at as short as 1.061/18 before finishing third last year and although he went on to win by two, Matsuyama very nearly threw the event away on Sunday two years ago (Hovland was matched at 1.674/6 in-running).

Justin Leonard won here by a stroke 21 years ago, but he'd led by eight with 18 to play so it's definitely not an easy place to front run on a Sunday.

As the market suggests, it's highly likely that Scheffler gets over the line today, especially given Burns' record in-the-mix isn't great but I was very happy to throw a few pounds at some outsiders that have already delivered from way off the pace previously.

Fleetwood, like Burns, is much better off the pace than he is on it. He won the Nedbank from six adrift in 2019, and he lost a playoff at the Shenzhen International in 2017 after he'd trailed by eight with 18 to play.

Hideki Matsuyama and Sam Burns muscled their way into the playoff won by Abraham Ancer here in 2021 having both been matched at 1000.0999/1 when trailing by eight and nine strokes respectively with 18 to play and the Japanese won the Phoenix Open in 2017 having trailed by four and the Genesis Invitational at Riviera two years ago, by three strokes, having trailed by six after 54 holes.

Like Fleetwood, Alex Noren has also won the Nedbank having trailed by six with a  round to go and he's also won both the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth, in 2017, and the Open de France, in 2018, having been seven shots back with 18 to play.

Despite bogeying both the 17^th and 18^th holes in round four, Hovland won the Hero World Challenge in 2021 having trailed the clear leader, Collin Morikawa, by six so he's not completely out of it and although he has a mountain to climb from tied 13^th and eight back, Chris Gotterup has already won twice from off the pace this year.

Gotterup won the Phoenix Open in February having sat 11^th and four back and he won the John Deere Classic last month having sat 12^th and five adrift.

---

08:00 - August 15, 2026 - Odds-on Scheffler the man to beat

The pre-event 6.411/2 favourite, Scottie Scheffler, began the second round of the FedEx St Jude Championship like a man on a mission, birdying his first five holes.

The world number one cooled off a bit after that but with three birdies in-a-row from the 15^th and a regulation par four at the last, he tied the course record with a nine-under-par 61 on Friday and he heads into the weekend with a commanding three-stroke lead.

Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back on the Betfair Exchange at 07:50.

Scottie Scheffler -11 1.558/15
Viktor Hovland -8 12.011/1
Sungjae Im -8 21.020/1
Ludvig Aberg -7 17.016/1
Tommy Fleetwood -6 23.022/1
Brian Harman -6 75.074/1
Jordan Spieth -6 80.079/1
Nico Echavarria -6 110.0109/1
Patrick Cantlay -5 70.069/1
Wyndham Clark -5 80.079/1
Jake Knapp -5 150.0149/1
Keith Mitchell -5 160.0159/1
Sudarshan Yellamaraju -5 350.0349/1
-4 and 120.0119/1 bar

Scheffler is the 24^th player to hold a clear advantage through 36 holes at TPC Southwind in the last 30 years and he's bidding to become the 11^th to convert.

In that time, we've seen four men lead by three at this stage with Tommy Fleetwood, 12 months ago, being the last of the four and the second to fail to convert. The Englishman missed out on the playoff by a stroke, but he traded at as short as 1.061/18.

Scheffler led the Memorial Tournament by three at halfway two years ago and he went on to win by a stroke but over the last 10 years on the PGA Tour, only 13 of 36 (33.3%) three-stroke 36-hole leaders have gone on to win.

The strike rate improves fractionally if we look as far back as the last 30 years on the PGA Tour with 36 of 105 converting their lead (34.2%) but the stats suggest Scheffler kicking on and winning is far from a formality.

We also have to consider that although he's had another largely consistent year, with 11 top 10s, he hasn't won since he claimed The American Express in January and in that time, he's finished second five times.

Scheffler will be very keen to get the job done here but he lost a playoff at the Travelers Championship at the end of June to Viktor Hovland having led by two at halfway and all things considered, he looks a bit short at around the 1.68/13 mark.

Having backed Hovland before the off at 48.047/1, I'll be hoping he's the one to upset the favourite again, and my Find Me a 100 Winner pick, Nico Echavarria, is also within striking distance so I've got a couple to cheer on in round three and I'm going to leave the event alone for now.

Two tied at the top in Denmark

Over on the DP World Tour, the third round of the Danish Golf Championship is already underway where the pre-event 75.074/1 chance, Antoine Rozner, is tied for the lead with 560.0559/1 chance, Cameron Adam, who set the new course record in round two.

Those two are sitting on -11 with the pre-event 50.049/1 chance, Ewen Ferguson, alone in third on -10 and it looks like a tough event to work out.

I managed to get a very small bet matched on Todd Clements, who sits tied for 11^th and four back, at 44.043/1, but that's as far as it goes for me at this stage.

Clements, who won the Czech Masters almost exactly three years ago, finished runner-up at the co-sanctioned Corales Puntacana Championship last time out so I thought he was an interesting runner heading into the weekend after a solid start and my pre-event pick, Rasmus Hojgaard, is certainly not out of it.

The classy Dane, who won this event three years ago, is alongside Clements in a group of four tied for 11^th.

---

Bookmark Betting.Betfair for golf betting tips every week

---