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40/141.00 Cameron Young is a good price to grab his first win
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75/176.00 Christiaan Bezuidenhout was runner-up last year
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66/167.00 Adam Hadwin has a brilliant course record
Brief history of The American Express
After winners from Japan (Hideki Matsuyama, The Sentry) and Canada (Nick Taylor, Sony Open), will we get a home American champion when the PGA Tour arrives on the US mainland for the first time in 2025?
As usual, the venue is La Quinta in California and a quick flick through the record books shows that the last four have been split between overseas players and those from the United States.
U.S. amateur Nick Dunlap produced a big upset to triumph last year and that followed wins for Spain's Jon Rahm, American Hudson Swafford and South Korea's Si-woo Kim.
Rahm and Swafford were winning this for a second time, while winding a little further back Bill Haas also became a two-time champion in 2015.
As for the nuts and bolts, this event is a pro-am played over three courses: the Pete Dye Stadium Course, the Nicklaus Tournament Course and La Quinta.
Dye's Stadium Course hosts the final round, the cut made after everyone has had a crack at each layout. It's normally the hardest one too, with La Quinta traditionally the best place to score.
Winning scores have been pretty consistent in what is another birdie-fest.
Since 2011 the magic number has been between -20 and -29, Dunlap recording that latter figure last year.
That's no surprise given that the courses are set up so as not to embarrass the various sports stars, musicians and industry types who contest the pro-am.
Short rough and well-manicured Bermuda greens await and history says the winner is very likely (15 of the last 18) to have played in Hawaii rather than be dusting off clubs for the first time in the new year.
Cameron Young still seeks a first PGA Tour win despite peppering his majors record with five top 10s over the last three seasons.
But we should know by now not to throw the towel in on such players and Young is still just 27 years old.
He didn't finish 2024 off in great style but an eighth place in The Sentry where he ranked 2nd for Strokes Gained: Putting and 1st Around The Green was a good start to 2025 and perhaps a massive hint that he's ready to get that elusive first victory.
The seven-time (yes, seven!) runner-up on the PGA Tour has racked up those near misses from just 74 starts so it's easy to put a positive spin on his achievements.
And with some decent names at the top of the betting (although all are too short for me) - 12/113.00 Justin Thomas, Sungjae Im, 14/115.00 Sam Burns, 18/119.00 Patricck Cantlay, 22/123.00 Tony Finau - the 40/141.00 about Young looks a good each-way punt.
In this event he was third, third and fifth after 18, 36 and 54 holes respectively on debut before a Sunday slide to 40th while he added 26th last year.
A strong driver of the ball, something that counts for plenty here, he boasts a solid record in California.
Reporters managed to grab a word with him at Kapalua two weeks ago and he was asked how his off-season had gone and what was his focus for 2025.
"Yeah, I feel like I've kind of been derailed by some illness here and there. I feel like every time I kind of started getting moving I got sick and kind of got slowed down a little bit," said Young.
But he added: "I'm happy with the work that I've done, and I feel like I'm really just starting to get into the swing of things. I played two weeks the beginning of December (13th Hero World Challenge, 7th Grant Thornton), and, yeah, happy to be here for the start of year."
Let's keep the faith in this classy operator and take the 40s.
Back Cameron Young each-way
There's certainly a strong case for leaning on course form this week and I'm hoping Christiaan Bezuidenhout can 'do an Andrew Landry' - not a common phrase - and follow up a runners-up finish here by taking first prize.
Landry was second here in 2018 and, after 28th inbetween, grabbed victory in 2020.
Strictly speaking Bezuidenhout isn't quite looking for a straight copy as the South African was runner-up last year.
Of course, with finishes like that there can be a feeling that a player just 'popped' on a particular week.
But, no, Bezuidenhout was 11th in this event a year earlier and posted a 40th on debut.
Whether it's the time of year or the conditions, he seems to like the West Coast Swing.
The 30-year-old also has 14th and 20th on his last two starts at Pebble Beach while he added a top 25 at Riviera in 2024.
He didn't play the Sony Open but Bezuidenhout did tee it up at The Sentry and although 40th was modest, he was never in it after a slow start but did he did get hot in round three with a 10-under 63.
Also sixth at the DP World Tour's Nedbank Golf Challenge in December, he's been wielding a hot putter of late: 9th SG: Putting at the Sentry, 2nd SGP in the Nedbank. That's always reassuring for a birdie-fest.
And although he's another of those laid-back South Africans who don't get carried away, Bezuidenhout was gushing with praise about this event last year.
"Yeah, I love this week. This is my third time playing here. I always like to start my year here. Yeah, everything about this place, the weather, the people, the golf courses that we play on, all the courses are just in great conditions and, yeah, it's just a joy to be here."
Perhaps with a run at The Sentry under his belt, he'll be that extra bit sharper which could make the difference between second and first.
Back Christiaan Bezuidenhout each-way
A very obvious final pick is Adam Hadwin but it's hard to leave him out at 66s.
The Canadian has a pretty stupendous record in this tournament: two second places, a third and two sixths.
That's five each-way returns from eight appearances and he was hardly shabby in the other three with finishes of 18th, 25th and 32nd.
That's the case right there to be honest but let's add a few more layers.
Firstly, a question that was put to Hadwin back in 2019: What is it about these conditions that is conducive to your game?
"Yeah, you never quite know, but being in Phoenix now for a few years full-time, I play on this grass, this overseeded grass all the time.
"This is what I practice on every day when I'm back there, so there's definitely a comfort level with the courses and the type of grass and the greens and so it probably helps reading putts, seeing break, I don't have to worry about grain like we did last week in Sony and all the Bermuda surrounding it, I really struggle with that.
"So certainly that adds to it, I get a lot of support here as well, which always helps."
As he basically called it in those above comments, the Sony remains a struggle and his 59th place last week added to finishes there of MC-57-67-MC.
But added to his 29th at The Sentry, Hadwin has eight rounds under his belt and should be match sharp for his annual crack at this event.
Back Adam Hadwin each-way